Sports Reference Blog
NFL Records After N Games
Posted by Neil on September 19, 2012
This is a re-posting of an entry I made back in May, but it seems useful to dredge up again now that we're in the early stages of the NFL season. To quote myself:
Tangotiger asked me to do some research for him with regard to predicting end-of-season records from a team's current record. Since it took a little time to put together, I figured I'd post the complete findings here.
The table below is based on every NFL season from 1988-2011 -- it lists every "season start" that a team had over that span (i.e., 4-1 through 5 games, etc.), and the average end-of-season winning percentage (counting ties as half-wins) for teams that started that way. I also showed the number of wins per 16 games to make it a little more understandable than a raw winning percentage.
As an added bonus this time around, I also included the number of instances of each record to start a season since 1988. Many of these will have more predictive power than others, since the sample sizes for some of the more unique late-season combinations can be quite small.
Thru N Games | W | L | T | Count | Final WPct | Per 16 G |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 364 | 0.573 | 9.2 |
1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 365 | 0.427 | 6.8 |
Thru N Games | W | L | T | Count | Final WPct | Per 16 G |
2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 197 | 0.621 | 9.9 |
2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 333 | 0.510 | 8.2 |
2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 199 | 0.364 | 5.8 |
Thru N Games | W | L | T | Count | Final WPct | Per 16 G |
3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 119 | 0.668 | 10.7 |
3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 246 | 0.569 | 9.1 |
3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 247 | 0.443 | 7.1 |
3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 117 | 0.306 | 4.9 |
Thru N Games | W | L | T | Count | Final WPct | Per 16 G |
4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 69 | 0.704 | 11.3 |
4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 193 | 0.616 | 9.8 |
4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 220 | 0.496 | 7.9 |
4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 167 | 0.399 | 6.4 |
4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 80 | 0.267 | 4.3 |
Thru N Games | W | L | T | Count | Final WPct | Per 16 G |
5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 40 | 0.756 | 12.1 |
5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 133 | 0.667 | 10.7 |
5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.531 | 8.5 |
5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 193 | 0.553 | 8.8 |
5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 198 | 0.441 | 7.1 |
5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0.281 | 4.5 |
5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 113 | 0.346 | 5.5 |
5 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 50 | 0.233 | 3.7 |
Thru N Games | W | L | T | Count | Final WPct | Per 16 G |
6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 29 | 0.791 | 12.7 |
6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 87 | 0.698 | 11.2 |
6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 174 | 0.592 | 9.5 |
6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0.531 | 8.5 |
6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 158 | 0.509 | 8.1 |
6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 163 | 0.401 | 6.4 |
6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0.281 | 4.5 |
6 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 86 | 0.301 | 4.8 |
6 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 30 | 0.178 | 2.9 |
Thru N Games | W | L | T | Count | Final WPct | Per 16 G |
7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 0.837 | 13.4 |
7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 57 | 0.737 | 11.8 |
7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 146 | 0.637 | 10.2 |
7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 156 | 0.538 | 8.6 |
7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0.531 | 8.5 |
7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 141 | 0.463 | 7.4 |
7 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 124 | 0.354 | 5.7 |
7 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0.281 | 4.5 |
7 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 60 | 0.273 | 4.4 |
7 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 25 | 0.164 | 2.6 |
Thru N Games | W | L | T | Count | Final WPct | Per 16 G |
8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 0.859 | 13.8 |
8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 43 | 0.769 | 12.3 |
8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 105 | 0.671 | 10.7 |
8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 136 | 0.598 | 9.6 |
8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0.531 | 8.5 |
8 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 147 | 0.499 | 8.0 |
8 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 127 | 0.409 | 6.5 |
8 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 95 | 0.318 | 5.1 |
8 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0.281 | 4.5 |
8 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 45 | 0.239 | 3.8 |
8 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 17 | 0.138 | 2.2 |
Thru N Games | W | L | T | Count | Final WPct | Per 16 G |
9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 0.859 | 13.8 |
9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 31 | 0.800 | 12.8 |
9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 72 | 0.706 | 11.3 |
9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 111 | 0.632 | 10.1 |
9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0.594 | 9.5 |
9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 145 | 0.550 | 8.8 |
9 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 127 | 0.449 | 7.2 |
9 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 108 | 0.373 | 6.0 |
9 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 74 | 0.287 | 4.6 |
9 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0.281 | 4.5 |
9 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 36 | 0.197 | 3.2 |
9 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 9 | 0.104 | 1.7 |
Thru N Games | W | L | T | Count | Final WPct | Per 16 G |
10 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 0.875 | 14.0 |
10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 23 | 0.807 | 12.9 |
10 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 54 | 0.744 | 11.9 |
10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 98 | 0.658 | 10.5 |
10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0.594 | 9.5 |
10 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 121 | 0.588 | 9.4 |
10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0.594 | 9.5 |
10 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 115 | 0.499 | 8.0 |
10 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 121 | 0.420 | 6.7 |
10 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 86 | 0.339 | 5.4 |
10 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 64 | 0.258 | 4.1 |
10 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 0.281 | 4.5 |
10 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 24 | 0.156 | 2.5 |
10 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 7 | 0.107 | 1.7 |
Thru N Games | W | L | T | Count | Final WPct | Per 16 G |
11 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0.893 | 14.3 |
11 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 19 | 0.822 | 13.2 |
11 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 44 | 0.776 | 12.4 |
11 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 70 | 0.690 | 11.0 |
11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0.594 | 9.5 |
11 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 121 | 0.612 | 9.8 |
11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0.656 | 10.5 |
11 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 104 | 0.543 | 8.7 |
11 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0.563 | 9.0 |
11 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 104 | 0.462 | 7.4 |
11 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 0.448 | 7.2 |
11 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 104 | 0.387 | 6.2 |
11 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 71 | 0.305 | 4.9 |
11 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 0.281 | 4.5 |
11 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 48 | 0.234 | 3.8 |
11 | 1 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 0.281 | 4.5 |
11 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 22 | 0.151 | 2.4 |
11 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 5 | 0.075 | 1.2 |
Thru N Games | W | L | T | Count | Final WPct | Per 16 G |
12 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0.896 | 14.3 |
12 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 0.839 | 13.4 |
12 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 32 | 0.801 | 12.8 |
12 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 67 | 0.719 | 11.5 |
12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0.594 | 9.5 |
12 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 86 | 0.643 | 10.3 |
12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0.635 | 10.2 |
12 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 106 | 0.573 | 9.2 |
12 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0.563 | 9.0 |
12 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 100 | 0.508 | 8.1 |
12 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 0.490 | 7.8 |
12 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 108 | 0.425 | 6.8 |
12 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0.406 | 6.5 |
12 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 79 | 0.352 | 5.6 |
12 | 3 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 0.281 | 4.5 |
12 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 58 | 0.276 | 4.4 |
12 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 39 | 0.210 | 3.4 |
12 | 1 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 0.281 | 4.5 |
12 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 18 | 0.135 | 2.2 |
12 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 4 | 0.078 | 1.3 |
Thru N Games | W | L | T | Count | Final WPct | Per 16 G |
13 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0.896 | 14.3 |
13 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 0.863 | 13.8 |
13 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 30 | 0.810 | 13.0 |
13 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 46 | 0.749 | 12.0 |
13 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 73 | 0.678 | 10.8 |
13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0.594 | 9.5 |
13 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 104 | 0.602 | 9.6 |
13 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0.625 | 10.0 |
13 | 7 | 6 | 0 | 99 | 0.532 | 8.5 |
13 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 0.500 | 8.0 |
13 | 6 | 7 | 0 | 91 | 0.470 | 7.5 |
13 | 5 | 8 | 0 | 88 | 0.395 | 6.3 |
13 | 4 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 0.406 | 6.5 |
13 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 72 | 0.319 | 5.1 |
13 | 3 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 0.281 | 4.5 |
13 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 48 | 0.259 | 4.1 |
13 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 32 | 0.191 | 3.1 |
13 | 1 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 0.281 | 4.5 |
13 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 15 | 0.108 | 1.7 |
13 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 3 | 0.063 | 1.0 |
Thru N Games | W | L | T | Count | Final WPct | Per 16 G |
14 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.938 | 15.0 |
14 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 0.881 | 14.1 |
14 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 24 | 0.833 | 13.3 |
14 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 43 | 0.766 | 12.3 |
14 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 53 | 0.706 | 11.3 |
14 | 9 | 5 | 0 | 93 | 0.633 | 10.1 |
14 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0.625 | 10.0 |
14 | 8 | 6 | 0 | 90 | 0.568 | 9.1 |
14 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 0.552 | 8.8 |
14 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 102 | 0.500 | 8.0 |
14 | 6 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 0.469 | 7.5 |
14 | 6 | 8 | 0 | 81 | 0.436 | 7.0 |
14 | 5 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 0.406 | 6.5 |
14 | 5 | 9 | 0 | 75 | 0.363 | 5.8 |
14 | 4 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 0.281 | 4.5 |
14 | 4 | 10 | 0 | 63 | 0.293 | 4.7 |
14 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 40 | 0.242 | 3.9 |
14 | 2 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 0.281 | 4.5 |
14 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 28 | 0.170 | 2.7 |
14 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 12 | 0.083 | 1.3 |
14 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.0 |
Thru N Games | W | L | T | Count | Final WPct | Per 16 G |
15 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1.000 | 16.0 |
15 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0.913 | 14.6 |
15 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 26 | 0.841 | 13.5 |
15 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 28 | 0.792 | 12.7 |
15 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 54 | 0.730 | 11.7 |
15 | 10 | 5 | 0 | 71 | 0.662 | 10.6 |
15 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 0.635 | 10.2 |
15 | 9 | 6 | 0 | 90 | 0.599 | 9.6 |
15 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 0.594 | 9.5 |
15 | 8 | 7 | 0 | 85 | 0.535 | 8.6 |
15 | 7 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 0.531 | 8.5 |
15 | 7 | 8 | 0 | 99 | 0.469 | 7.5 |
15 | 6 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 0.406 | 6.5 |
15 | 6 | 9 | 0 | 72 | 0.398 | 6.4 |
15 | 5 | 10 | 0 | 64 | 0.336 | 5.4 |
15 | 4 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 0.281 | 4.5 |
15 | 4 | 11 | 0 | 57 | 0.271 | 4.3 |
15 | 3 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 0.281 | 4.5 |
15 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 36 | 0.214 | 3.4 |
15 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 18 | 0.142 | 2.3 |
15 | 1 | 14 | 0 | 10 | 0.075 | 1.2 |
15 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.0 |
Thru N Games | W | L | T | Count | Final WPct | Per 16 G |
16 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1.000 | 16.0 |
16 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.938 | 15.0 |
16 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 14 | 0.875 | 14.0 |
16 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 33 | 0.813 | 13.0 |
16 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 46 | 0.750 | 12.0 |
16 | 11 | 5 | 0 | 59 | 0.688 | 11.0 |
16 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0.656 | 10.5 |
16 | 10 | 6 | 0 | 81 | 0.625 | 10.0 |
16 | 9 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 0.594 | 9.5 |
16 | 9 | 7 | 0 | 86 | 0.563 | 9.0 |
16 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 0.531 | 8.5 |
16 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 87 | 0.500 | 8.0 |
16 | 7 | 9 | 0 | 75 | 0.438 | 7.0 |
16 | 6 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 0.406 | 6.5 |
16 | 6 | 10 | 0 | 70 | 0.375 | 6.0 |
16 | 5 | 11 | 0 | 59 | 0.313 | 5.0 |
16 | 4 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 0.281 | 4.5 |
16 | 4 | 12 | 0 | 53 | 0.250 | 4.0 |
16 | 3 | 13 | 0 | 26 | 0.188 | 3.0 |
16 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 15 | 0.125 | 2.0 |
16 | 1 | 15 | 0 | 8 | 0.063 | 1.0 |
16 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.0 |
By the way, based on this data, here's what we would expect for each team this season from their record so far:
Actual | Predicted | |||
---|---|---|---|---|
Team | W | L | W | L |
49ers | 2 | 0 | 9.9 | 6.1 |
Bears | 1 | 1 | 8.1 | 7.9 |
Bengals | 1 | 1 | 8.1 | 7.9 |
Bills | 1 | 1 | 8.1 | 7.9 |
Broncos | 1 | 1 | 8.1 | 7.9 |
Browns | 0 | 2 | 5.8 | 10.2 |
Buccaneers | 1 | 1 | 8.1 | 7.9 |
Cardinals | 2 | 0 | 9.9 | 6.1 |
Chargers | 2 | 0 | 9.9 | 6.1 |
Chiefs | 0 | 2 | 5.8 | 10.2 |
Colts | 1 | 1 | 8.1 | 7.9 |
Cowboys | 1 | 1 | 8.1 | 7.9 |
Dolphins | 1 | 1 | 8.1 | 7.9 |
Eagles | 2 | 0 | 9.9 | 6.1 |
Falcons | 2 | 0 | 9.9 | 6.1 |
Giants | 1 | 1 | 8.1 | 7.9 |
Jaguars | 0 | 2 | 5.8 | 10.2 |
Jets | 1 | 1 | 8.1 | 7.9 |
Lions | 1 | 1 | 8.1 | 7.9 |
Packers | 1 | 1 | 8.1 | 7.9 |
Panthers | 1 | 1 | 8.1 | 7.9 |
Patriots | 1 | 1 | 8.1 | 7.9 |
Raiders | 0 | 2 | 5.8 | 10.2 |
Rams | 1 | 1 | 8.1 | 7.9 |
Ravens | 1 | 1 | 8.1 | 7.9 |
Redskins | 1 | 1 | 8.1 | 7.9 |
Saints | 0 | 2 | 5.8 | 10.2 |
Seahawks | 1 | 1 | 8.1 | 7.9 |
Steelers | 1 | 1 | 8.1 | 7.9 |
Texans | 2 | 0 | 9.9 | 6.1 |
Titans | 0 | 2 | 5.8 | 10.2 |
Vikings | 1 | 1 | 8.1 | 7.9 |
I like this analysis, but I don't understand how your counts for 1-0 and 0-1 are not the same number. Same for 2-0 and 0-2.
Tony > He used data ranging from 1988 to 2011. From 1999 to 2001, there were an odd number of teams (31) due to the NFL allowing the Browns back in prior to adding an expansion team to make it a nice even number.
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