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NFL records after N games

Posted by Neil on May 30, 2012

Tangotiger asked me to do some research for him with regard to predicting end-of-season records from a team's current record. Since it took a little time to put together, I figured I'd post the complete findings here.

The table below is based on every NFL season from 1988-2012 -- it lists every "season start" that a team had over that span (i.e., 4-1 through 5 games, etc.), and the average end-of-season winning percentage (counting ties as half-wins) for teams that started that way. I also showed the number of wins per 16 games to make it a little more understandable than a raw winning percentage.

Enjoy:

Thru N Games	W	L	T	Final WPct	Per 16 G
1	1	0	0	0.573	9.2
1	0	1	0	0.427	6.8
Thru N Games	W	L	T	Final WPct	Per 16 G
2	2	0	0	0.621	9.9
2	1	1	0	0.510	8.2
2	0	2	0	0.364	5.8
Thru N Games	W	L	T	Final WPct	Per 16 G
3	3	0	0	0.668	10.7
3	2	1	0	0.569	9.1
3	1	2	0	0.443	7.1
3	0	3	0	0.306	4.9
Thru N Games	W	L	T	Final WPct	Per 16 G
4	4	0	0	0.704	11.3
4	3	1	0	0.616	9.9
4	2	2	0	0.496	7.9
4	1	3	0	0.399	6.4
4	0	4	0	0.267	4.3
Thru N Games	W	L	T	Final WPct	Per 16 G
5	5	0	0	0.756	12.1
5	4	1	0	0.667	10.7
5	3	1	1	0.531	8.5
5	3	2	0	0.553	8.8
5	2	3	0	0.441	7.1
5	1	3	1	0.281	4.5
5	1	4	0	0.346	5.5
5	0	5	0	0.233	3.7
Thru N Games	W	L	T	Final WPct	Per 16 G
6	6	0	0	0.791	12.7
6	5	1	0	0.698	11.2
6	4	2	0	0.592	9.5
6	3	2	1	0.531	8.5
6	3	3	0	0.509	8.1
6	2	4	0	0.401	6.4
6	1	4	1	0.281	4.5
6	1	5	0	0.301	4.8
6	0	6	0	0.178	2.8
Thru N Games	W	L	T	Final WPct	Per 16 G
7	7	0	0	0.837	13.4
7	6	1	0	0.737	11.8
7	5	2	0	0.637	10.2
7	4	3	0	0.538	8.6
7	3	3	1	0.531	8.5
7	3	4	0	0.463	7.4
7	2	5	0	0.354	5.7
7	1	5	1	0.281	4.5
7	1	6	0	0.273	4.4
7	0	7	0	0.164	2.6
Thru N Games	W	L	T	Final WPct	Per 16 G
8	8	0	0	0.859	13.7
8	7	1	0	0.769	12.3
8	6	2	0	0.671	10.7
8	5	3	0	0.598	9.6
8	4	3	1	0.531	8.5
8	4	4	0	0.499	8.0
8	3	5	0	0.409	6.5
8	2	6	0	0.318	5.1
8	1	6	1	0.281	4.5
8	1	7	0	0.239	3.8
8	0	8	0	0.138	2.2
Thru N Games	W	L	T	Final WPct	Per 16 G
9	9	0	0	0.859	13.7
9	8	1	0	0.800	12.8
9	7	2	0	0.706	11.3
9	6	3	0	0.632	10.1
9	5	3	1	0.594	9.5
9	5	4	0	0.550	8.8
9	4	5	0	0.449	7.2
9	3	6	0	0.373	6.0
9	2	7	0	0.287	4.6
9	1	7	1	0.281	4.5
9	1	8	0	0.197	3.2
9	0	9	0	0.104	1.7
Thru N Games	W	L	T	Final WPct	Per 16 G
10	10	0	0	0.875	14.0
10	9	1	0	0.807	12.9
10	8	2	0	0.744	11.9
10	7	3	0	0.658	10.5
10	6	3	1	0.594	9.5
10	6	4	0	0.588	9.4
10	5	4	1	0.594	9.5
10	5	5	0	0.499	8.0
10	4	6	0	0.420	6.7
10	3	7	0	0.339	5.4
10	2	8	0	0.258	4.1
10	1	8	1	0.281	4.5
10	1	9	0	0.156	2.5
10	0	10	0	0.107	1.7
Thru N Games	W	L	T	Final WPct	Per 16 G
11	11	0	0	0.893	14.3
11	10	1	0	0.822	13.2
11	9	2	0	0.776	12.4
11	8	3	0	0.690	11.0
11	7	3	1	0.594	9.5
11	7	4	0	0.612	9.8
11	6	4	1	0.656	10.5
11	6	5	0	0.543	8.7
11	5	5	1	0.563	9.0
11	5	6	0	0.462	7.4
11	4	6	1	0.448	7.2
11	4	7	0	0.387	6.2
11	3	8	0	0.305	4.9
11	2	8	1	0.281	4.5
11	2	9	0	0.234	3.7
11	1	9	1	0.281	4.5
11	1	10	0	0.151	2.4
11	0	11	0	0.075	1.2
Thru N Games	W	L	T	Final WPct	Per 16 G
12	12	0	0	0.896	14.3
12	11	1	0	0.839	13.4
12	10	2	0	0.801	12.8
12	9	3	0	0.719	11.5
12	8	3	1	0.594	9.5
12	8	4	0	0.643	10.3
12	7	4	1	0.635	10.2
12	7	5	0	0.573	9.2
12	6	5	1	0.563	9.0
12	6	6	0	0.508	8.1
12	5	6	1	0.490	7.8
12	5	7	0	0.425	6.8
12	4	7	1	0.406	6.5
12	4	8	0	0.352	5.6
12	3	8	1	0.281	4.5
12	3	9	0	0.276	4.4
12	2	10	0	0.210	3.4
12	1	10	1	0.281	4.5
12	1	11	0	0.135	2.2
12	0	12	0	0.078	1.2
Thru N Games	W	L	T	Final WPct	Per 16 G
13	13	0	0	0.896	14.3
13	12	1	0	0.863	13.8
13	11	2	0	0.810	13.0
13	10	3	0	0.749	12.0
13	9	4	0	0.678	10.8
13	8	4	1	0.594	9.5
13	8	5	0	0.602	9.6
13	7	5	1	0.625	10.0
13	7	6	0	0.532	8.5
13	6	6	1	0.500	8.0
13	6	7	0	0.470	7.5
13	5	8	0	0.395	6.3
13	4	8	1	0.406	6.5
13	4	9	0	0.319	5.1
13	3	9	1	0.281	4.5
13	3	10	0	0.259	4.1
13	2	11	0	0.191	3.1
13	1	11	1	0.281	4.5
13	1	12	0	0.108	1.7
13	0	13	0	0.063	1.0
Thru N Games	W	L	T	Final WPct	Per 16 G
14	14	0	0	0.938	15.0
14	13	1	0	0.881	14.1
14	12	2	0	0.833	13.3
14	11	3	0	0.766	12.3
14	10	4	0	0.706	11.3
14	9	5	0	0.633	10.1
14	8	5	1	0.625	10.0
14	8	6	0	0.568	9.1
14	7	6	1	0.552	8.8
14	7	7	0	0.500	8.0
14	6	7	1	0.469	7.5
14	6	8	0	0.436	7.0
14	5	8	1	0.406	6.5
14	5	9	0	0.363	5.8
14	4	9	1	0.281	4.5
14	4	10	0	0.293	4.7
14	3	11	0	0.242	3.9
14	2	11	1	0.281	4.5
14	2	12	0	0.170	2.7
14	1	13	0	0.083	1.3
14	0	14	0	0.000	0.0
Thru N Games	W	L	T	Final WPct	Per 16 G
15	15	0	0	1.000	16.0
15	14	1	0	0.913	14.6
15	13	2	0	0.841	13.5
15	12	3	0	0.792	12.7
15	11	4	0	0.730	11.7
15	10	5	0	0.662	10.6
15	9	5	1	0.635	10.2
15	9	6	0	0.599	9.6
15	8	6	1	0.594	9.5
15	8	7	0	0.535	8.6
15	7	7	1	0.531	8.5
15	7	8	0	0.469	7.5
15	6	8	1	0.406	6.5
15	6	9	0	0.398	6.4
15	5	10	0	0.336	5.4
15	4	10	1	0.281	4.5
15	4	11	0	0.271	4.3
15	3	11	1	0.281	4.5
15	3	12	0	0.214	3.4
15	2	13	0	0.142	2.3
15	1	14	0	0.075	1.2
15	0	15	0	0.000	0.0

Also, I'd be remiss if I didn't remind you that you can look up "season starts" with a variety of criteria (like the most rushing yards through a team's first 5 games, for example) using the Play Index Team Game Finder.

This entry was posted on Wednesday, May 30th, 2012 at 8:41 am and is filed under Announcement, Data, General, Pro-Football-Reference.com. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.

4 Responses to “NFL records after N games”

Danish Says:
May 30th, 2012 at 9:19 am

Interesting.

So teams that start 8-0 and 9-0 average the same number of wins? It's probably a very limited sample, so this essentially means that no 8-0 team has ever lost a game, correct?
Daniel Page Says:
May 30th, 2012 at 10:39 am

Danish, do you mean, "No 8-0 team has lost Game 9"? That would seem to be correct.

Neil, any chance you could add the number of teams counted per instance in the next column? Thanks!
Johnny Says:
June 3rd, 2012 at 1:21 pm

Nice post.

This gave me nostalgia of the old blogs!
Peter Says:
June 7th, 2012 at 7:36 pm

Danish-

Yes, the data says that teams that begin 8-0 and 9-0 still average out to the same end of season winning percentage.

Danish and Daniel-

No, what it is saying that that teams that start out 8-0 can expect to lose between two and three games in their next 8 games. The next game they play could still very well be one of those losses.