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NFL records after N games

Posted by Neil on May 30, 2012

Tangotiger asked me to do some research for him with regard to predicting end-of-season records from a team's current record. Since it took a little time to put together, I figured I'd post the complete findings here.

The table below is based on every NFL season from 1988-2012 -- it lists every "season start" that a team had over that span (i.e., 4-1 through 5 games, etc.), and the average end-of-season winning percentage (counting ties as half-wins) for teams that started that way. I also showed the number of wins per 16 games to make it a little more understandable than a raw winning percentage.

Enjoy:

Thru N Games W L T Final WPct Per 16 G
1 1 0 0 0.573 9.2
1 0 1 0 0.427 6.8
Thru N Games W L T Final WPct Per 16 G
2 2 0 0 0.621 9.9
2 1 1 0 0.510 8.2
2 0 2 0 0.364 5.8
Thru N Games W L T Final WPct Per 16 G
3 3 0 0 0.668 10.7
3 2 1 0 0.569 9.1
3 1 2 0 0.443 7.1
3 0 3 0 0.306 4.9
Thru N Games W L T Final WPct Per 16 G
4 4 0 0 0.704 11.3
4 3 1 0 0.616 9.9
4 2 2 0 0.496 7.9
4 1 3 0 0.399 6.4
4 0 4 0 0.267 4.3
Thru N Games W L T Final WPct Per 16 G
5 5 0 0 0.756 12.1
5 4 1 0 0.667 10.7
5 3 1 1 0.531 8.5
5 3 2 0 0.553 8.8
5 2 3 0 0.441 7.1
5 1 3 1 0.281 4.5
5 1 4 0 0.346 5.5
5 0 5 0 0.233 3.7
Thru N Games W L T Final WPct Per 16 G
6 6 0 0 0.791 12.7
6 5 1 0 0.698 11.2
6 4 2 0 0.592 9.5
6 3 2 1 0.531 8.5
6 3 3 0 0.509 8.1
6 2 4 0 0.401 6.4
6 1 4 1 0.281 4.5
6 1 5 0 0.301 4.8
6 0 6 0 0.178 2.8
Thru N Games W L T Final WPct Per 16 G
7 7 0 0 0.837 13.4
7 6 1 0 0.737 11.8
7 5 2 0 0.637 10.2
7 4 3 0 0.538 8.6
7 3 3 1 0.531 8.5
7 3 4 0 0.463 7.4
7 2 5 0 0.354 5.7
7 1 5 1 0.281 4.5
7 1 6 0 0.273 4.4
7 0 7 0 0.164 2.6
Thru N Games W L T Final WPct Per 16 G
8 8 0 0 0.859 13.7
8 7 1 0 0.769 12.3
8 6 2 0 0.671 10.7
8 5 3 0 0.598 9.6
8 4 3 1 0.531 8.5
8 4 4 0 0.499 8.0
8 3 5 0 0.409 6.5
8 2 6 0 0.318 5.1
8 1 6 1 0.281 4.5
8 1 7 0 0.239 3.8
8 0 8 0 0.138 2.2
Thru N Games W L T Final WPct Per 16 G
9 9 0 0 0.859 13.7
9 8 1 0 0.800 12.8
9 7 2 0 0.706 11.3
9 6 3 0 0.632 10.1
9 5 3 1 0.594 9.5
9 5 4 0 0.550 8.8
9 4 5 0 0.449 7.2
9 3 6 0 0.373 6.0
9 2 7 0 0.287 4.6
9 1 7 1 0.281 4.5
9 1 8 0 0.197 3.2
9 0 9 0 0.104 1.7
Thru N Games W L T Final WPct Per 16 G
10 10 0 0 0.875 14.0
10 9 1 0 0.807 12.9
10 8 2 0 0.744 11.9
10 7 3 0 0.658 10.5
10 6 3 1 0.594 9.5
10 6 4 0 0.588 9.4
10 5 4 1 0.594 9.5
10 5 5 0 0.499 8.0
10 4 6 0 0.420 6.7
10 3 7 0 0.339 5.4
10 2 8 0 0.258 4.1
10 1 8 1 0.281 4.5
10 1 9 0 0.156 2.5
10 0 10 0 0.107 1.7
Thru N Games W L T Final WPct Per 16 G
11 11 0 0 0.893 14.3
11 10 1 0 0.822 13.2
11 9 2 0 0.776 12.4
11 8 3 0 0.690 11.0
11 7 3 1 0.594 9.5
11 7 4 0 0.612 9.8
11 6 4 1 0.656 10.5
11 6 5 0 0.543 8.7
11 5 5 1 0.563 9.0
11 5 6 0 0.462 7.4
11 4 6 1 0.448 7.2
11 4 7 0 0.387 6.2
11 3 8 0 0.305 4.9
11 2 8 1 0.281 4.5
11 2 9 0 0.234 3.7
11 1 9 1 0.281 4.5
11 1 10 0 0.151 2.4
11 0 11 0 0.075 1.2
Thru N Games W L T Final WPct Per 16 G
12 12 0 0 0.896 14.3
12 11 1 0 0.839 13.4
12 10 2 0 0.801 12.8
12 9 3 0 0.719 11.5
12 8 3 1 0.594 9.5
12 8 4 0 0.643 10.3
12 7 4 1 0.635 10.2
12 7 5 0 0.573 9.2
12 6 5 1 0.563 9.0
12 6 6 0 0.508 8.1
12 5 6 1 0.490 7.8
12 5 7 0 0.425 6.8
12 4 7 1 0.406 6.5
12 4 8 0 0.352 5.6
12 3 8 1 0.281 4.5
12 3 9 0 0.276 4.4
12 2 10 0 0.210 3.4
12 1 10 1 0.281 4.5
12 1 11 0 0.135 2.2
12 0 12 0 0.078 1.2
Thru N Games W L T Final WPct Per 16 G
13 13 0 0 0.896 14.3
13 12 1 0 0.863 13.8
13 11 2 0 0.810 13.0
13 10 3 0 0.749 12.0
13 9 4 0 0.678 10.8
13 8 4 1 0.594 9.5
13 8 5 0 0.602 9.6
13 7 5 1 0.625 10.0
13 7 6 0 0.532 8.5
13 6 6 1 0.500 8.0
13 6 7 0 0.470 7.5
13 5 8 0 0.395 6.3
13 4 8 1 0.406 6.5
13 4 9 0 0.319 5.1
13 3 9 1 0.281 4.5
13 3 10 0 0.259 4.1
13 2 11 0 0.191 3.1
13 1 11 1 0.281 4.5
13 1 12 0 0.108 1.7
13 0 13 0 0.063 1.0
Thru N Games W L T Final WPct Per 16 G
14 14 0 0 0.938 15.0
14 13 1 0 0.881 14.1
14 12 2 0 0.833 13.3
14 11 3 0 0.766 12.3
14 10 4 0 0.706 11.3
14 9 5 0 0.633 10.1
14 8 5 1 0.625 10.0
14 8 6 0 0.568 9.1
14 7 6 1 0.552 8.8
14 7 7 0 0.500 8.0
14 6 7 1 0.469 7.5
14 6 8 0 0.436 7.0
14 5 8 1 0.406 6.5
14 5 9 0 0.363 5.8
14 4 9 1 0.281 4.5
14 4 10 0 0.293 4.7
14 3 11 0 0.242 3.9
14 2 11 1 0.281 4.5
14 2 12 0 0.170 2.7
14 1 13 0 0.083 1.3
14 0 14 0 0.000 0.0
Thru N Games W L T Final WPct Per 16 G
15 15 0 0 1.000 16.0
15 14 1 0 0.913 14.6
15 13 2 0 0.841 13.5
15 12 3 0 0.792 12.7
15 11 4 0 0.730 11.7
15 10 5 0 0.662 10.6
15 9 5 1 0.635 10.2
15 9 6 0 0.599 9.6
15 8 6 1 0.594 9.5
15 8 7 0 0.535 8.6
15 7 7 1 0.531 8.5
15 7 8 0 0.469 7.5
15 6 8 1 0.406 6.5
15 6 9 0 0.398 6.4
15 5 10 0 0.336 5.4
15 4 10 1 0.281 4.5
15 4 11 0 0.271 4.3
15 3 11 1 0.281 4.5
15 3 12 0 0.214 3.4
15 2 13 0 0.142 2.3
15 1 14 0 0.075 1.2
15 0 15 0 0.000 0.0

Also, I'd be remiss if I didn't remind you that you can look up "season starts" with a variety of criteria (like the most rushing yards through a team's first 5 games, for example) using the Play Index Team Game Finder.

This entry was posted on Wednesday, May 30th, 2012 at 8:41 am and is filed under Announcement, Data, General, Pro-Football-Reference.com. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.

4 Responses to “NFL records after N games”

  1. Interesting.

    So teams that start 8-0 and 9-0 average the same number of wins? It's probably a very limited sample, so this essentially means that no 8-0 team has ever lost a game, correct?

  2. Daniel Page Says:

    Danish, do you mean, "No 8-0 team has lost Game 9"? That would seem to be correct.

    Neil, any chance you could add the number of teams counted per instance in the next column? Thanks!

  3. Nice post.

    This gave me nostalgia of the old blogs!

  4. Danish-

    Yes, the data says that teams that begin 8-0 and 9-0 still average out to the same end of season winning percentage.

    Danish and Daniel-

    No, what it is saying that that teams that start out 8-0 can expect to lose between two and three games in their next 8 games. The next game they play could still very well be one of those losses.

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