If I can be honest with you for a moment, I think my approach to fantasy football could use some work. Each year, I agree to join a friend's league and promptly forget about it until the hour before the draft, at which point, I binge read every draft kit and fantasy guide that I can put in front of my face. No matter what, it always ends the same way: me panicking in the 7th round and trying to draft Tshimanga Biakabutuka.
This year will be different. Why? Because this year, we're going to use Pro Football Reference. No more fighting for the same 5 sleepers everyone else wants or drafting Brandon Marshall three rounds too early because you forgot that he got traded to the Jets. We're going to get through this together, you guys.
This year, we've ramped up fantasy coverage on PFR, adding a lot of red zone and matchup data to give you all the info you need. So from the draft, to setting your lineup, to dominating the waiver wire, here's seven ways that PFR will lead you to fantasy glory.
1. We Have Fantasy Points!
That's right, we keep track of fantasy points, based on standard scoring systems (read the details in the glossary). That means that, if you're considering drafting a player, you can pull up his page and see a chart like this:
Year |
Age |
G |
FantPos |
FantPt |
VBD |
PosRank |
OvRank |
2011 |
23 |
13 |
RB |
120 |
|
30 |
|
2012 |
24 |
10 |
RB |
111 |
|
28 |
|
2013 |
25 |
14 |
RB |
205 |
79 |
7 |
17 |
2014 |
26 |
16 |
RB |
292 |
173 |
1 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
728 |
252 |
|
|
Those are DeMarco Murray's fantasy numbers. In addition to the raw fantasy points, we also have a number called VBD, which subtracts a player's overall fantasy score from the “baseline” score, which is the score of the 12th-ranked QB, 24th-ranked RB, 30th-ranked WR, or 12th-ranked TE, giving you a number that's roughly fantasy football's cousin to Runs Above Average. Lastly, you can see both his overall rank vs the baseline and positional rank.
VBD is how we determine the overall rank; it lets us see the players who most outperformed the baseline for their position and gave players the biggest advantage over the competition. By VBD, here's the top performers since 2012:

As you can see RBs have an advantage, coming in first all three years (2011's leader was Aaron Rodgers). However, there does tend to be a non-RB player in the top 5. All in all, last year's Top 20 included 8 RBs, 9 WRs, 2 QBs, and 1 Gronk.
However, we're just scratching the surface of the data. In the grey bar towards the top of a player's profile, you'll see a fantasy section. If you click on it, you can get a table like this:
Rk |
Att |
Yds |
TD |
Tgt |
Rec |
Yds |
TD |
Att |
Yds |
TD |
Num |
Pct |
Num |
Pct |
Num |
Pct |
FantPt |
DKPt |
FDPt |
1 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
61 |
88.4 |
0 |
0.0 |
0 |
0.0 |
18.3 |
25.3 |
19.8 |
2 |
2 |
16 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
3 |
1 |
58 |
71.6 |
0 |
0.0 |
0 |
0.0 |
21.3 |
26.3 |
21.8 |
3 |
2 |
-4 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
5 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
44 |
78.6 |
0 |
0.0 |
1 |
1.3 |
17.1 |
25.1 |
19.1 |
4 |
3 |
25 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
-1 |
0 |
50 |
75.8 |
0 |
0.0 |
0 |
0.0 |
27.5 |
31.5 |
28.0 |
5 |
4 |
14 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
3 |
0 |
1 |
5 |
0 |
67 |
88.2 |
0 |
0.0 |
0 |
0.0 |
17.2 |
27.2 |
20.2 |
6 |
7 |
25 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
5 |
0 |
52 |
69.3 |
0 |
0.0 |
0 |
0.0 |
20.6 |
29.6 |
23.6 |
7 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
44 |
71.0 |
0 |
0.0 |
0 |
0.0 |
19.2 |
23.2 |
19.7 |
8 |
1 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
3 |
0 |
43 |
66.2 |
0 |
0.0 |
0 |
0.0 |
20.1 |
28.1 |
22.1 |
9 |
2 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
43 |
67.2 |
0 |
0.0 |
0 |
0.0 |
9.0 |
13.0 |
11.0 |
10 |
1 |
4 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
4 |
0 |
36 |
60.0 |
0 |
0.0 |
0 |
0.0 |
13.1 |
22.1 |
16.1 |
11 |
1 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
3 |
0 |
51 |
94.4 |
0 |
0.0 |
0 |
0.0 |
14.3 |
19.3 |
15.3 |
12 |
4 |
12 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
3 |
1 |
48 |
78.7 |
0 |
0.0 |
0 |
0.0 |
17.3 |
23.3 |
20.3 |
13 |
10 |
9 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
6 |
0 |
5 |
-10 |
1 |
58 |
93.5 |
0 |
0.0 |
0 |
0.0 |
28.8 |
40.8 |
33.3 |
14 |
7 |
15 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
5 |
6 |
2 |
57 |
69.5 |
0 |
0.0 |
0 |
0.0 |
20.4 |
21.4 |
20.9 |
15 |
6 |
7 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
31 |
49.2 |
0 |
0.0 |
0 |
0.0 |
11.8 |
11.8 |
11.8 |
16 |
3 |
15 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
5 |
0 |
2 |
13 |
1 |
40 |
62.5 |
0 |
0.0 |
0 |
0.0 |
18.1 |
24.1 |
19.6 |
|
56 |
148 |
12 |
4 |
4 |
19 |
0 |
28 |
40 |
10 |
783 |
|
0 |
|
1 |
|
294.1 |
392.1 |
322.6 |
Those are DeMarco Murray's game-by-game fantasy stats for 2014. You can see his points, snap counts, and red zone data (hold that thought on the last one).
2. The Season Finder is Rad...
Of course, having fantasy stats is one thing, but actually harnessing them is another. That's where the Play Index comes in. Just like how you can use the Season Finder to sort through traditional season stats like passing yards and receiving TDs, you can also sift through fantasy points. For example, here's the 2014 fantasy point leaders:
Torn between a RB or a QB with a late first round pick? This can help you strategize. Depending on who is still on the board, you can use the season finder to compare the dropoff from the top QB to one further down the list and see if it would be higher than, say, the dropoff from the 6th or 7th RB. But the Season Finder may be more useful in making decisions within a position. For example, here's the top 15 WRs in Fantasy Points since 2012:
While we may want to believe that a Larry Fitzgerald bounceback is coming, he's only been the 27th highest ranked WR over the last three years. On the other hand, while Andre Johnson's numbers lagged a little last year, over the last three seasons he's been a Top 10 WR, and he's upgrading at QB from Ryan Fitzpatrick to Andrew Luck. ESPN has him going 25th among WR, meaning you could be buying low on a nice rebound candidate.
3. ...But the Game Finder May Be Better
Of course, unless you're in a somewhat unusual league, these season numbers will only do so much. Most of us play fantasy football week-to-week, game-to-game. If only there were some tool that let you search individual games the same way the Season Finder does with seasons...wait, there is!
It's called the Game Finder and it's incredible. You can get info on a game-by-game level, which means that you can actually break down the numbers to the basic unit of a fantasy season. And, of course, the Game Finder has Fantasy Points like the Season Finder. So, for example, if you care about consistency, you can see who has the most 18+ point games since 2012:
Some of these bets seem like safer ones than others (Hi, RG3), but if you're picking between Big Ben (ranked 6 among QBs by ESPN) or Cam (ranked 8th), this can be one factor you keep in mind. On the other hand, if you prefer a high ceiling, you can set the parameters higher. For example, these are the players with 30 point games last year:
A good fantasy team will balance risky players with high ceilings and consistent players with low floors. With the Game Finder, you can get both.
4. Check the Red Zone
Remember that DeMarco Murray chart I showed you earlier. Well, it shows off one of our newest features: red zone data. We can track targets, carries, yards, and TDs on plays that start within the 20 and within the 10:
This gives you a lot of info. Not only can you see how many times someone scored, but you can also see how many times the team tried to score with them. In theory, someone with more targets could see their TD numbers go up if he keeps getting the same opportunities. On the other hand, you may want to bet on the high-efficiency players who convert more of their targets into scores (click to enlarge):

We track these numbers for rushing and passing, as well as receiving. More importantly, we'll be keeping tabs on these in 2015 too. Just click over to any 2015 NFL season page and hover over fantasy on the grey menu bar. Once the season starts, we'll have all the data you need to win on the waiver wire, as well as in your draft.
5. Know Your Advanced Stats
Anybody can look at passing yards or TDs for a quarterback, but our database goes deeper, with per attempt numbers and index stats.
For quarterbacks, we track yards per attempt, but also advanced stats like Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A) and Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt (ANY/A). If you're a basketball fan, you can think of it as something similar to TS%. If you're not a basketball fan or don't know that stat, these numbers adjust a player's yardage per attempt to give them additional credit for TDs and blame for INTs. To decide which one to use, you'll want to know if your league penalizes QBs for sacks. If so, you'll want to use ANY/A, which accounts for sacks. If not, stick with AY/A, which only covers passing yards, TDs, and INTs. Looking at the AY/A leaders with at least 200 attempts last year, here's what you get:
Rk |
|
Tm |
G |
Cmp |
Att |
Cmp% |
Yds |
TD |
Int |
Rate |
Sk |
Y/A |
Yds |
AY/A |
ANY/A |
Y/G |
W |
L |
T |
1 |
Aaron Rodgers |
GNB |
16 |
341 |
520 |
65.58 |
4381 |
38 |
5 |
112.2 |
28 |
8.43 |
174 |
9.45 |
8.65 |
273.8 |
12 |
4 |
0 |
2 |
Tony Romo |
DAL |
15 |
304 |
435 |
69.89 |
3705 |
34 |
9 |
113.2 |
29 |
8.52 |
215 |
9.15 |
8.11 |
247.0 |
12 |
3 |
0 |
3 |
Ben Roethlisberger |
PIT |
16 |
408 |
608 |
67.11 |
4952 |
32 |
9 |
103.3 |
33 |
8.14 |
172 |
8.53 |
7.82 |
309.5 |
11 |
5 |
0 |
4 |
Peyton Manning |
DEN |
16 |
395 |
597 |
66.16 |
4727 |
39 |
15 |
101.5 |
17 |
7.92 |
118 |
8.09 |
7.68 |
295.4 |
12 |
4 |
0 |
5 |
Ryan Fitzpatrick |
HTX |
12 |
197 |
312 |
63.14 |
2483 |
17 |
8 |
95.3 |
21 |
7.96 |
83 |
7.89 |
7.15 |
206.9 |
6 |
6 |
0 |
6 |
Russell Wilson |
SEA |
16 |
285 |
452 |
63.05 |
3475 |
20 |
7 |
95.0 |
42 |
7.69 |
242 |
7.88 |
6.72 |
217.2 |
12 |
4 |
0 |
7 |
Andrew Luck |
CLT |
16 |
380 |
616 |
61.69 |
4761 |
40 |
16 |
96.5 |
27 |
7.73 |
161 |
7.86 |
7.28 |
297.6 |
11 |
5 |
0 |
8 |
Carson Palmer |
CRD |
6 |
141 |
224 |
62.95 |
1626 |
11 |
3 |
95.6 |
9 |
7.26 |
59 |
7.64 |
7.09 |
271.0 |
6 |
0 |
0 |
9 |
Tom Brady |
NWE |
16 |
373 |
582 |
64.09 |
4109 |
33 |
9 |
97.4 |
21 |
7.06 |
134 |
7.50 |
7.01 |
256.8 |
12 |
4 |
0 |
10 |
Kirk Cousins |
WAS |
6 |
126 |
204 |
61.76 |
1710 |
10 |
9 |
86.4 |
8 |
8.38 |
70 |
7.38 |
6.77 |
285.0 |
1 |
4 |
0 |
11 |
Drew Brees |
NOR |
16 |
456 |
659 |
69.20 |
4952 |
33 |
17 |
97.0 |
29 |
7.51 |
186 |
7.36 |
6.77 |
309.5 |
7 |
9 |
0 |
12 |
Matt Ryan |
ATL |
16 |
415 |
628 |
66.08 |
4694 |
28 |
14 |
93.9 |
31 |
7.47 |
205 |
7.36 |
6.71 |
293.4 |
6 |
10 |
0 |
13 |
Eli Manning |
NYG |
16 |
379 |
601 |
63.06 |
4410 |
30 |
14 |
92.1 |
28 |
7.34 |
187 |
7.29 |
6.67 |
275.6 |
6 |
10 |
0 |
14 |
Alex Smith |
KAN |
15 |
303 |
464 |
65.30 |
3265 |
18 |
6 |
93.4 |
45 |
7.04 |
229 |
7.23 |
6.14 |
217.7 |
8 |
7 |
0 |
15 |
Joe Flacco |
RAV |
16 |
344 |
554 |
62.09 |
3986 |
27 |
12 |
91.0 |
19 |
7.19 |
167 |
7.19 |
6.66 |
249.1 |
10 |
6 |
0 |
16 |
Philip Rivers |
SDG |
16 |
379 |
570 |
66.49 |
4286 |
31 |
18 |
93.8 |
36 |
7.52 |
189 |
7.19 |
6.45 |
267.9 |
9 |
7 |
0 |
17 |
Mark Sanchez |
PHI |
9 |
198 |
309 |
64.08 |
2418 |
14 |
11 |
88.4 |
23 |
7.83 |
151 |
7.13 |
6.18 |
268.7 |
4 |
4 |
0 |
18 |
Robert Griffin |
WAS |
9 |
147 |
214 |
68.69 |
1694 |
4 |
6 |
86.9 |
33 |
7.92 |
227 |
7.03 |
5.17 |
188.2 |
2 |
5 |
0 |
19 |
Matthew Stafford |
DET |
16 |
363 |
602 |
60.30 |
4257 |
22 |
12 |
85.7 |
45 |
7.07 |
254 |
6.91 |
6.03 |
266.1 |
11 |
5 |
0 |
20 |
Colin Kaepernick |
SFO |
16 |
289 |
478 |
60.46 |
3369 |
19 |
10 |
86.4 |
52 |
7.05 |
344 |
6.90 |
5.58 |
210.6 |
8 |
8 |
0 |
Because this is a rate state, and fantasy is a game of bulk, a top scorer like Andrew Luck may be a little lower than where you'd take him in a draft. However, it can alert you to potential warning signs or point out potential sleepers. If the Saints try to run more this year, per rumors, Drew Brees may lose a lot of his value, since his AY/A is already low and his bulk production would also go down (on the other hand, perhaps a more balanced attack would make him more efficient). Meanwhile, guys like Roethlisberger or Tony Romo could be good value picks if you wait on a QB. Or maybe just take Aaron Rodgers and don't overthink it.
With new advanced stats, it can sometimes be tough to tell who is better than whom, and by how much. That's why I like looking at index stats. An index stat will be familiar to anyone whose ever seen ERA+ or OPS+ in baseball. We have index stats for pretty much all the important passing numbers, so rather than looking at just Passing TD%, something like TD%+ might be easier to digest.
With an index stat, it will always be indicated by a + or - (for these passing stats, you'll only need to worry about the +). A score of 100 means that the player's number was average for that season. If it's higher than that, it means they were that percentage better than average. Lower, and it means they were that much worse:
Tony Romo's 138 means that his TD% was 38% better than average, meaning, again, he could be a sneaky play. Or you could go with Rodgers or Luck and know you'll have an elite TD-slinging QB.
Putting it all together, here's a scatter plot showing the Top 16 fantasy QBs (plus Ryan Fitzpatrick, who grades out surprisingly well by these metrics). On one axis, we have Y/A, giving us an idea of their efficiency and yardage totals. On the other, we have TD%+, for their scoring. The size of the circles reflects the number of pass attempts, giving us some idea of bulk (click on the picture to enlarge):

6. Play the Matchups
The draft is just the start of your season, and we'll be there to help as you navigate the endless lineup tinkering that comes with the fantasy season. In order to win, you'll be spending a lot of time researching the teams that your players are facing. Fortunately, we keep tables with all sorts of team defensive data.
Remember AY/A? I mean, we were just talking about it. Well, not only can you see it for the QBs, but you can check team's AY/A against, to get a look at how their defense has fared beyond simple points and yards allowed:
Even though Washington was merely a bottom 10 team by passing yards allowed, their AY/A shows that they got pummeled through the air. Of course, defense is not always consistent from year-to-year, so you'll want to pay close attention to how the 2015 numbers start to shake out early.
This year, our database goes even deeper, with matchup data by position. For instance, here's how every team's defense fared against TEs in 2014:
As if Gronk weren't valuable enough, he also gets 4 games this season against teams who were in the Top 5 for easiest matchups against TEs. Of course, he'll also be playing 3 against the 2 toughest TE matchups in the league. Just like with the red zone data, we'll be updating matchup data for 2015 in the fantasy section, so check these tables every week and adjust your lineup accordingly
7. Don't Worry, We Didn't Forget About Daily Fantasy
If you're using a Daily Fantasy site to play fantasy football without putting too much strain on your attention span, don't worry. We've got both FanDuel and DraftKings numbers in the database too. So all those nifty searches I showed you in the Season Finder and Game Finder? You can do those with Daily Fantasy points too! Here, for example, is every player with 8 or more games worth 20 points or more in DraftKings:
Not only that, but our matchup data includes FanDuel and DraftKings points, as well as standard fantasy, meaning you can pore over those tables and search for the player who makes you a millionaire. Don't forget to check the red zone numbers too!
With Pro Football Reference, and the powerful search tools of the Play Index, you basically have your own front office and scouts. See, I told you we were going to get through this together. Unless you're in my league; in that case, everything I just said is a complete lie and you should draft Tebow first overall.
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