Sports Reference Blog

PFR HOF Monitor: Methodology

The purpose of this page is to post the full details of the Pro Football Hall of Fame Monitor, Pro-Football-Reference's method of measuring a player’s chances of being inducted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame. This is displayed on the site for players who debuted in 1955 or later and have played at least 50 regular season games.

Version 1.0

The Hall of Fame Monitor was officially released in mid-December 2019 in time to analyze the Centennial Class of 2020.

Version 1.1

The Monitor underwent some minor tweaks in February 2020, taking into account feedback received from trusted sources following the official release of the Monitor, as well as conclusions drawn from the eventual selections of the 2020 HOF class.

Formula Breakdown

Base

(Pro Football Hall of Fame All-Decade Selections) * 25

Value of All-Decade Selections:

  • 1st-team Offense/Defense = 1.0
  • 1st-team Special Teams = 0.5
  • 2nd-team Offense/Defense = 0.4
  • 2nd-team Special Teams = 0.2

+ (Most Valuable Player + Defensive Player of the Year) * 12.5

+ (1st-team Associated Press All-Pro selections) * 2.5

+ (Championships) * 2

Exception: Quarterbacks have this variable multiplied by 2.5, but only counted if they started the Super Bowl/championship game

+ (Weighted Approximate Value) * 0.5

Weighted AV = 100% of the AV of his best season, 95% of the AV of his next-best season, 90% of the AV of his third-best season, and so on

For inactive players, if a player’s 1st-team AP All-Pro selections is greater than 33% of the seasons they played in the league, 25-point bonus

If a player has not yet been inducted, 1 point for each finalist appearance and 0.5 points for each semifinalist appearance on the Hall of Fame ballot

0.75 point penalty for each year played in the AFL

Position-Specific Additions

Quarterbacks

+ (Super Bowl losses) * 1.25

If player debuted in 1980 or later:

  • + (Passing yards over 40,000) * 0.00075
  • + (Passing TDs over 250) * 0.0075

If player debuted before 1980:

  • + (Passing yards over 25,000) * 0.00075
  • + (Passing TDs over 175) * 0.0075

7.5 point penalty if no championships won

Running Backs

+ (Rushing yards over 10,000) * 0.005

+ (Rushing TDs over 70) * 0.05

2.5 point penalty if no championships won

Wide Receivers

If player debuted in 1980 or later:

  • + (Receiving yards over 10,000) * 0.0075
  • + (Receiving TDs over 65) * 0.075

If player debuted before 1980:

  • + (Receiving yards over 7,000) * 0.0075
  • + (Receiving TDs over 50) * 0.075

2.5 point penalty if no championships won

Tight Ends

If player debuted in 1980 or later:

  • + (Receiving yards over 7,500) * 0.0075
  • + (Receiving TDs over 50) * 0.075

If player debuted before 1980:

  • + (Receiving yards over 3,500) * 0.0075
  • + (Receiving TDs over 35) * 0.075

Offensive Tackles and Guards

2.5 point penalty if no championships won

Centers

No additional variables

Defensive Ends

+ (Sacks over 125) * 0.25

2.5 point penalty if no championships won

Defensive Tackles

+ (Sacks over 100) * 0.25

2.5 point penalty if no championships won

Inside Linebackers

+ (Interceptions over 25) * 0.5

5 point penalty if no championships won

Outside Linebackers

+ (Sacks over 100) * 0.25

2.5 point penalty if no championships won

Defensive Backs

+ (Interceptions over 50) * 0.5

2.5 point penalty if no championships won

Kickers

If player debuted in 1980 or later: + (Field goals made over 450) * 0.25

If player debuted before 1980: + (Field goals made over 300) * 0.25

Punters

5 point penalty if no championships won