Sports Reference Blog
CBB: Use Our Adjusted Power Ratings to Fill Out Your Brackets
Posted by Neil on March 14, 2012
At the beginning of the 2011-12 NCAA Basketball season, we began to calculate Adjusted Offensive and Defensive Ratings for each team. In a nutshell, these ratings measure a team's offensive and defensive abilities independent of the pace at which they play. Since raw PPG totals can be greatly influenced by how many possessions a team has to score and defend, per-possession metrics more accurately reflect a team's true skill levels (pace is largely a choice, and it has almost no correlation to how good a team is at scoring and defending on a per-possession basis).
Here were the best teams during the regular season by adjusted net rating (adjusted Offensive Rating minus adjusted Defensive Rating):
| Overall | Adjusted | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rk | School | Conf | W | L | ORtg/A | DRtg/A | NRtg/A ? |
| 1 | Kentucky* R | SEC | 32 | 2 | 119.1 | 82.8 | 36.3 |
| 2 | Ohio State* R | Big Ten | 27 | 7 | 115.6 | 79.9 | 35.7 |
| 3 | Michigan State* RT | Big Ten | 27 | 7 | 114.1 | 81.0 | 33.0 |
| 4 | Kansas* R | Big 12 | 27 | 6 | 115.9 | 83.5 | 32.4 |
| 5 | Missouri* T | Big 12 | 30 | 4 | 123.2 | 92.5 | 30.8 |
| 6 | Syracuse* R | Big East | 31 | 2 | 115.3 | 84.6 | 30.7 |
| 7 | Wisconsin* | Big Ten | 24 | 9 | 111.4 | 81.2 | 30.2 |
| 8 | North Carolina* R | ACC | 29 | 5 | 114.4 | 84.4 | 30.0 |
| 9 | Indiana* | Big Ten | 25 | 8 | 118.7 | 90.8 | 27.8 |
| 10 | Wichita State* R | MVC | 27 | 5 | 114.5 | 87.8 | 26.7 |
| 11 | Duke* | ACC | 27 | 6 | 116.9 | 91.2 | 25.7 |
| 12 | Memphis* RT | CUSA | 26 | 8 | 112.5 | 86.8 | 25.7 |
| 13 | Georgetown* | Big East | 23 | 8 | 109.3 | 84.2 | 25.1 |
| 14 | Florida* | SEC | 23 | 10 | 119.0 | 94.1 | 24.9 |
| 15 | Baylor* | Big 12 | 27 | 7 | 113.3 | 88.8 | 24.6 |
| 16 | Marquette* | Big East | 25 | 7 | 111.5 | 87.9 | 23.6 |
| 17 | New Mexico* RT | MWC | 27 | 6 | 108.6 | 85.3 | 23.3 |
| 18 | Saint Louis* | A-10 | 25 | 7 | 108.9 | 85.6 | 23.3 |
| 19 | Vanderbilt* T | SEC | 24 | 10 | 112.7 | 89.7 | 23.0 |
| 20 | Louisville* T | Big East | 26 | 9 | 104.0 | 81.5 | 22.5 |
| 21 | Kansas State* | Big 12 | 21 | 10 | 108.1 | 86.3 | 21.8 |
| 22 | Florida State* T | ACC | 24 | 9 | 105.3 | 83.9 | 21.5 |
| 23 | Michigan* R | Big Ten | 24 | 9 | 112.6 | 91.4 | 21.2 |
| 24 | California* | Pac-12 | 24 | 9 | 109.4 | 88.3 | 21.1 |
| 25 | Texas* | Big 12 | 20 | 13 | 111.2 | 90.2 | 21.1 |
The "adjusted" part means these stats also take into account a team's strength of schedule. Because of this, you can use these metrics to get a better gauge on who will win in the NCAA Tournament. Plugging the adjusted ratings into the Pythagorean Formula and simulating the tournament 10,000 times, here were the odds of each team reaching each round ("TCPts" = expected ESPN Tournament Challenge points):
Team Rd32 Sw16 El8 F4 Title Champ TCPts ------------------------------------------------------------------ Kentucky .987 .849 .633 .508 .349 .206 214.7 Ohio St. .975 .837 .700 .472 .327 .204 209.9 Michigan St. .976 .702 .543 .389 .223 .126 152.5 Kansas .949 .764 .580 .384 .192 .102 141.9 North Carolina .942 .686 .522 .289 .126 .062 107.0 Wisconsin .916 .692 .405 .202 .119 .063 94.4 Syracuse .943 .706 .403 .182 .103 .050 86.6 Missouri .971 .613 .441 .206 .097 .040 84.4 Duke .879 .626 .371 .125 .048 .016 59.0 Baylor .795 .526 .305 .098 .039 .011 48.3 Georgetown .718 .523 .213 .111 .037 .014 45.5 Indiana .813 .458 .157 .090 .044 .018 43.4 Marquette .717 .552 .237 .083 .031 .009 42.1 Wichita St. .795 .440 .152 .092 .039 .014 40.9 Louisville .805 .461 .143 .072 .026 .008 35.6 New Mexico .726 .395 .124 .059 .021 .008 30.9 Team Rd32 Sw16 El8 F4 Title Champ TCPts ------------------------------------------------------------------ Michigan .761 .428 .151 .049 .013 .003 29.2 Florida St. .753 .428 .115 .041 .015 .004 27.7 UNLV .701 .319 .148 .036 .010 .002 24.5 Memphis .544 .172 .103 .054 .023 .008 23.5 Florida .527 .205 .122 .043 .014 .004 21.3 Alabama .589 .199 .112 .040 .011 .003 20.4 Kansas St. .746 .244 .088 .025 .010 .002 20.1 Vanderbilt .716 .236 .084 .025 .009 .003 19.7 Virginia .474 .180 .105 .035 .012 .004 18.5 California .436 .253 .094 .031 .007 .002 17.5 Texas .556 .288 .066 .020 .006 .001 16.9 Purdue .591 .149 .070 .027 .007 .002 15.7 Notre Dame .583 .216 .084 .015 .003 .000 15.3 Saint Louis .456 .124 .065 .034 .012 .003 15.2 N.C. St. .547 .191 .041 .011 .002 .000 12.2 Cincinnati .444 .205 .039 .009 .003 .002 11.8 Team Rd32 Sw16 El8 F4 Title Champ TCPts ------------------------------------------------------------------ Temple .430 .195 .047 .012 .002 .000 11.5 Murray St. .573 .181 .038 .006 .001 .000 11.4 Gonzaga .545 .090 .043 .013 .004 .001 10.7 Creighton .411 .106 .049 .014 .002 .000 9.8 San Diego St. .453 .139 .029 .008 .001 .000 9.4 Iowa St. .516 .081 .025 .011 .003 .001 9.3 Xavier .417 .129 .044 .008 .001 .000 9.3 Belmont .282 .147 .035 .011 .002 .000 8.4 Connecticut .484 .070 .022 .009 .002 .001 8.3 West Virginia .455 .069 .029 .006 .001 .000 7.9 Saint Mary's .409 .079 .031 .008 .001 .000 7.8 Colorado St. .427 .109 .019 .003 .001 .000 7.5 Brigham Young .205 .125 .033 .009 .002 .000 6.9 Colorado .299 .083 .023 .003 .001 .000 6.0 Long Beach St. .274 .096 .015 .004 .001 .000 5.7 St. Bonaventure .247 .080 .009 .002 .000 .000 4.6 Team Rd32 Sw16 El8 F4 Title Champ TCPts ------------------------------------------------------------------ South Dakota St. .205 .072 .019 .002 .001 .000 4.5 Ohio .239 .070 .011 .002 .000 .000 4.4 Harvard .284 .051 .010 .001 .000 .000 4.4 So. Mississippi .254 .041 .006 .001 .000 .000 3.7 VCU .206 .054 .006 .002 .000 .000 3.7 Davidson .195 .049 .006 .001 .000 .000 3.3 South Florida .134 .054 .013 .003 .000 .000 3.2 New Mexico St. .187 .048 .004 .001 .000 .000 3.1 Lehigh .121 .030 .006 .000 .000 .000 2.1 Iona .079 .034 .006 .001 .000 .000 1.7 Montana .084 .021 .003 .001 .000 .000 1.4 UNC-Asheville .057 .010 .001 .000 .000 .000 0.8 Detroit .051 .009 .001 .000 .000 .000 0.8 Lamar .039 .006 .001 .000 .000 .000 0.5 Loyola-Maryland .026 .004 .000 .000 .000 .000 0.4 Norfolk St. .029 .002 .000 .000 .000 .000 0.3 LIU-Brooklyn .024 .002 .000 .000 .000 .000 0.3 Vermont .019 .003 .001 .000 .000 .000 0.3 Western KY .010 .001 .000 .000 .000 .000 0.1 MS Valley St. .002 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 0.0
We also offer that old Sports-Reference standby, the Simple Rating System. SRS basically represents the team's average PPG margin, adjusted for strength of schedule. Here were the 2012 leaders:
| Overall | SRS | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rk | School | Conf | W | L | SRS ? | SOS |
| 1 | Kentucky* R | SEC | 32 | 2 | 24.6 | 7.0 |
| 2 | Ohio State* R | Big Ten | 27 | 7 | 24.5 | 8.8 |
| 3 | Michigan State* RT | Big Ten | 27 | 7 | 22.4 | 10.3 |
| 4 | Kansas* R | Big 12 | 27 | 6 | 22.2 | 9.1 |
| 5 | North Carolina* R | ACC | 29 | 5 | 22.2 | 7.1 |
| 6 | Syracuse* R | Big East | 31 | 2 | 21.4 | 7.2 |
| 7 | Missouri* T | Big 12 | 30 | 4 | 20.9 | 6.3 |
| 8 | Indiana* | Big Ten | 25 | 8 | 19.3 | 7.6 |
| 9 | Wisconsin* | Big Ten | 24 | 9 | 19.2 | 8.2 |
| 10 | Wichita State* R | MVC | 27 | 5 | 18.2 | 4.0 |
| 11 | Duke* | ACC | 27 | 6 | 18.1 | 9.0 |
| 12 | Memphis* RT | CUSA | 26 | 8 | 17.5 | 5.3 |
| 13 | Florida* | SEC | 23 | 10 | 17.4 | 7.2 |
| 14 | Baylor* | Big 12 | 27 | 7 | 17.0 | 8.0 |
| 15 | Georgetown* | Big East | 23 | 8 | 16.9 | 7.5 |
| 16 | Marquette* | Big East | 25 | 7 | 16.8 | 7.0 |
| 17 | New Mexico* RT | MWC | 27 | 6 | 16.2 | 3.3 |
| 18 | Vanderbilt* T | SEC | 24 | 10 | 15.7 | 7.7 |
| 19 | Louisville* T | Big East | 26 | 9 | 15.6 | 7.9 |
| 20 | Florida State* T | ACC | 24 | 9 | 15.4 | 7.9 |
| 21 | Kansas State* | Big 12 | 21 | 10 | 15.2 | 7.5 |
| 22 | Saint Louis* | A-10 | 25 | 7 | 14.9 | 3.2 |
| 23 | Texas* | Big 12 | 20 | 13 | 14.7 | 8.4 |
| 24 | Nevada-Las Vegas* | MWC | 26 | 8 | 14.5 | 4.9 |
| 25 | California* | Pac-12 | 24 | 9 | 14.2 | 4.3 |
Plugging those numbers into a simulator 10,000 times, here's how SRS sees the tournament:
Team Rd32 Sw16 El8 F4 Title Champ TCPts ------------------------------------------------------------------ Kentucky .997 .872 .637 .507 .345 .207 214.8 Ohio St. .991 .866 .729 .495 .322 .198 210.9 Kansas .974 .796 .627 .395 .202 .109 149.5 North Carolina .975 .777 .638 .375 .195 .107 146.2 Michigan St. .992 .708 .545 .355 .193 .099 136.7 Missouri .992 .678 .511 .277 .133 .061 106.9 Syracuse .968 .751 .482 .233 .123 .060 101.6 Duke .916 .706 .432 .147 .064 .023 69.9 Wisconsin .919 .637 .304 .128 .059 .025 61.9 Indiana .850 .512 .182 .112 .055 .022 50.8 Baylor .831 .549 .296 .091 .037 .012 48.1 Marquette .726 .585 .233 .093 .035 .010 44.5 Wichita St. .845 .425 .134 .077 .035 .012 37.7 Georgetown .670 .480 .173 .073 .021 .007 34.5 New Mexico .734 .432 .144 .061 .019 .006 31.5 Louisville .782 .423 .129 .049 .013 .004 28.7 Team Rd32 Sw16 El8 F4 Title Champ TCPts ------------------------------------------------------------------ Florida .652 .242 .153 .064 .023 .007 28.7 Michigan .771 .448 .124 .036 .009 .002 26.7 UNLV .754 .344 .152 .034 .011 .003 25.8 Florida St. .763 .417 .101 .032 .010 .003 25.1 Memphis .605 .193 .114 .054 .020 .007 24.1 Vanderbilt .781 .312 .108 .032 .012 .003 23.9 Kansas St. .759 .218 .094 .027 .009 .003 20.0 Texas .567 .308 .068 .024 .006 .002 17.9 California .427 .241 .068 .023 .006 .002 15.1 Purdue .611 .138 .068 .022 .006 .001 14.7 Notre Dame .579 .172 .063 .010 .003 .000 13.1 N.C. St. .577 .215 .046 .011 .001 .000 13.0 Alabama .512 .114 .059 .020 .004 .001 12.1 Creighton .488 .106 .058 .018 .004 .000 11.6 Cincinnati .433 .213 .037 .010 .003 .000 11.4 Temple .454 .200 .040 .008 .002 .000 11.1 Team Rd32 Sw16 El8 F4 Title Champ TCPts ------------------------------------------------------------------ Saint Louis .395 .098 .051 .019 .005 .001 10.4 Murray St. .546 .149 .019 .003 .000 .000 9.6 Belmont .330 .177 .039 .010 .002 .001 9.6 Iowa St. .527 .070 .023 .009 .002 .001 8.9 Gonzaga .503 .066 .031 .009 .002 .001 8.7 Virginia .348 .079 .040 .014 .004 .001 8.6 West Virginia .497 .067 .030 .008 .002 .001 8.6 San Diego St. .423 .128 .021 .004 .000 .000 7.9 Xavier .421 .101 .029 .003 .001 .000 7.8 Connecticut .474 .058 .018 .007 .002 .000 7.4 Colorado St. .454 .103 .011 .001 .000 .000 7.2 Saint Mary's .389 .062 .026 .006 .001 .000 6.7 Brigham Young .192 .122 .026 .006 .001 .000 6.1 Long Beach St. .266 .095 .013 .003 .001 .000 5.5 Colorado .246 .056 .013 .001 .000 .000 4.2 Ohio .229 .070 .007 .001 .000 .000 4.1 Team Rd32 Sw16 El8 F4 Title Champ TCPts ------------------------------------------------------------------ St. Bonaventure .237 .063 .005 .000 .000 .000 3.9 Davidson .219 .051 .004 .001 .000 .000 3.4 South Dakota St. .169 .051 .011 .001 .000 .000 3.2 So. Mississippi .241 .027 .006 .001 .000 .000 3.2 Harvard .220 .037 .005 .001 .000 .000 3.2 New Mexico St. .150 .033 .004 .001 .000 .000 2.4 South Florida .119 .042 .006 .001 .000 .000 2.3 VCU .155 .030 .003 .001 .000 .000 2.3 Iona .082 .041 .006 .001 .000 .000 2.0 Lehigh .084 .022 .003 .000 .000 .000 1.4 Montana .082 .014 .001 .000 .000 .000 1.1 UNC-Asheville .032 .004 .000 .000 .000 .000 0.4 Detroit .026 .004 .001 .000 .000 .000 0.4 Lamar .019 .003 .000 .000 .000 .000 0.3 Loyola-Maryland .009 .001 .000 .000 .000 .000 0.1 LIU-Brooklyn .008 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 0.1 Vermont .007 .001 .000 .000 .000 .000 0.1 Norfolk St. .008 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 0.1 Western KY .002 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 0.0 MS Valley St. .001 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 0.0
With the help of metrics like these, you should have an edge in your NCAA Tournament pool!
Fabulous stats, great summaries...In love with your site...I would pay for this !!
What do the R, T, and * signify?
* means an NCAA tournament team, R means they won the conference in the regular-season, T means they won the conference tournament.