Sports Reference Blog
2011 AV is up
Posted by Mike on January 9, 2012
With the announcement of the All-Pro and Pro Bowl teams, we've been able to calculate AV for the 2011 season, which you should now see on each player's page, or see the top 10 on the 2011 leaders page. We've also added an AV column to each team's roster page so you can see who was great on your team & who was bringing them down.
EDIT: As was noted in the comments below, there was an issue with rookies not being assigned positions in our database and thus not getting AV. Since AV is distributed amongst teammates, this threw everyone off -- but fear not, for it is now fixed!
That's great. Hope the college and draft data from the last two years can be updated, too.
Will there need to be an AV update when the replacement Pro Bowlers are announced?
Also,
When you search the Ravens 2011 AVs on the play index it gives Ray Lewis a 10 but when you click on his page it only has him at a 7.
This should be corrected.
Jarret Johnson appears to have the wrong tackle constant given to him. He is listed as a Defensive End at the top of his player page but is an OLB. He should have a 0.3 tackle constant and not a 0.6.
The Ravens should all be adjusted due to this.
Many of the AVs for 2011 are different when you search a position or team in the play index compared to when you click on the individual player's page.
That bit with the player pages listing different AVs is getting fixed now. As for Jarret Johnson, his player page lists him as a DE but he's listed as a LB for the season so that's getting calculated correctly. And yes, we'll recalculate as more replacement Pro Bowl players are announced since there's a significant bonus for Pro Bowl selection.
Argh... it looks like you still have that bug having to do with rookie classes improperly having an AV of zero. I've been wanting to run analyses on draft classes but I can't do it until that bug is fixed. I'm talking about case 23944.
Mike,
Thanks for the response. Another Question is; how could johnson, McClain, and Lewis all have the same score of 10?
Johnson- 119.5 Individual Points
McClain- 128.1 individual Points
Lewis- 139.6 individual Points (40 pt bonus for pro bowl)
Wouldn't Lewis' share of the AV points for the Front 7 be larger than the other 2 players?
Also, I should point out that there are other errors on the Denver Broncos roster page that may not be related to the bugs you're already aware of, and may be true for other teams too.
1) Zane Beadles is not a rookie (it's his second year) and almost certainly does not have 0 AV.
2) Von Miller does not in any way have 0 AV (this is probably case 23944 - all Denver rookies have 0 AV which isn't right).
3) D.J. Williams is not two people.
Thanks!
Tunesmith,
The same thing happened with the Jets front 7 players. Three Jets LB, 2 rookies & 1 rookie from last season, have Zero AVs which has elevated the AVs of the other players' in the Front 7.
Seems like that puts the entire AV system into doubt until that bug is fixed.
Tunesmith,
It seems to add a point or two to guys on a lot of teams due to the system allocating the pool of AV points to a smaller group of players.
Mike,
Ray Lewis' 2011 was corrected with a 10 on his page but his career total is incorrect at a 216. It should be a 219 and in turn that would change his career weighted to a 160 approximately.
I still am not sure how Johnson has the same score as Lewis when Lewis has over 20 more individual points and theoretically a bigger piece of the AV pie.
Mike,
Please correct me if this is wrong for the Ravens.
The total individual points for the Front 7 are 1318.7. The total AV points for the front 7 to divide among the players is 90.
Here is the breakdown with the percentage of AV in parenthesis for each player.
Defensive Lineman (Individual Points):
Ngata-260.2 (19.73%)
Cody-108.6 (8.23%)
Redding-95.9 (7.27%)
Kruger-36.7 (2.78%)
McPhee-35.6 (2.7%)
A.Jones-25.6 (1.94%)
McKinney-15.8 (1.19%)
E.Jones-9 (0.0)
Total: 587.4
Linebackers:
Suggs-253 (19.18%)
Lewis-139.6 (10.59%)
McClain-128.1 (9.71%)
Johnson-119.5 (9.06%)
Ayanbadejo-32.7 (2.48%)
Ellerbe-27.9 (2.06%)
McClellan-22.5 (1.71%)
Burgess-3 (0)
Williams-2 (0)
Kindle-2 (0)
Bynes-1 (0)
TOTAL: 731.3
If you multiple the percentage by the total AV for the front 7 (90) here is the correct AVs for the Ravens front 7.
Ngata-17.76
Suggs-17.26
Lewis-9.53
McClain-8.74
Johnson-8.15
Cody-7.4
Redding-6.54
Kruger-2.5
McPhee-2.43
Ayanbadejo-2.23
Ellerbe-1.85
A.Jones-1.75
McClellan-1.54
McKinney-1.07
E.Jones-0
Burgess-0
Williams-0
Kindle-0
Bynes-0
So the true AV scores when splitting the 90 should be as follows:
Ngata-18
Suggs-17
Lewis-10
McClain-9
Johnson-8
Cody-7
Redding-7
Kruger-3
McPhee-2
Ayanbadejo-2
Ellerbe-2
A.Jones-2
McClellan-2
McKinney-1
E.Jones-0
Burgess-0
Williams-0
Kindle-0
Bynes-0
Whoops...Please correct the Ravens AVs.
Side note: Julius Peppers is not part of the Chicago Defense and is listed only when searching the Offensive players in the season finder:
http://pfref.com/tiny/bt0fx
I am sure this is making a difference for the Bears AVs on both sides of the ball.
You have a problem where guys who played with 2 teams are getting credited with playing their cumulative games for both teams. So for example, Brandon Lloyd is credited with 15 GP and 15 GS for both St. Louis and Denver. That's going to mess up your AV with some guys.
Post-edit, this looks improved, but I still see several problems.
1) Denver 2010, Zane Beadles still has an AV of 0, and this cannot be accurate.
2) Denver 2010, who is Zane Brown? Wasn't with the Broncos.
3) Denver 2011, Zane Beadles still listed as a rookie
4) Denver 2011, Chris Harris has an AV of 0, this does not look right - top nickel back, many good plays this season. Perhaps the problem didn't get fixed for undrafted rookies?
5) Denver 2011, D.J. Williams is still not two people.
DJ Williams is two different people but he's being made into 1 person by PFR. He's got 21 games played this season according to his stats - quite a trick.
Also, the cumulative games problem for players with 2+ teams is fixed in their individual stats but still wrong on the team roster/stats page (Lloyd still shows 15 GP on the Broncos team page)
If I did my research correctly, I've come up with an AV top 7 from the past four year:
1. Aaron Rodgers 71
2. Philip Rivers 69
3. Drew Brees 67
4. Darrelle Revis 63
5. Patrick Willis 61
6. (tie) Ray Lewis and James Harrison 59
Note: In Tom Brady's past four full seasons, he's accumulated an AV of 79. He missed almost the entire 2008 season with an injury, which brings his 2008-2011 total down to 55.
As far as I can tell, the highest AV total for four consectutive seasons belongs to Jim Brown, with 91 from 1962-65. Other very high such totals belong to Alan Page (89) 1969-72, Marshall Faulk (87), 1998-2001, Carl Eller (84), 1968-1971 and Steve Young (82) 1991-94 or 1992-95.
For the past two seasons there are too many inonsistencies, just a few examples:
1) Ben Tate is missing his college and Draft data.
2) Victor Cruz is listed as a rookie, even that he played 3 games in 2010 (they finally merged both pages he had, like he was two ifferen players).
3) Many 2011 numbers are incorrect or "0".
It's a pity that the best website has been left without fixing bugs. I would offer myself to correct all in my spare time if I had access.
Rolando McClain still has 0 AV for last season - I emailed PFR about this last spring, but sadly it was never fixed.
I honestly think we'll need a bigger/longer explanation about this. If things are just fixed piecemeal then I'm not sure how to trust that everything is actually fixed. It's supposed to be a cohesive system where everyone's AV rating is dependent on everyone else's AV rating, at least to a degree. Can a full regeneration be done where every player on every roster is rechecked?
Paul,
I saw Ray Lewis have a string of 5 consecutive full seasons where he scored 100 AV ('99-'01, '03-'04).
Here are some more problems:
1. 2011 Bears front 7 is incorrect. Peppers isn't showing up in a search of the defense but is showing up as a WR on offense. This is watering down the Bears offensive player AVs but elevating the Bears Front 7 Defensive Player AVs. (Example: Urlacher w/ a 14 AV on the 14th ranked Defense and no All-Pro Bonus is clearly incorrect.)
2. 2011 Browns Front 7 is incorrect. Not enough games started among the front 7 players. Just 80 games started among the group. Where are the other two defensive positions?
3. The 2011 Ravens Front 7 AVs are incorrect. I did the correct math in post #12 and Suggs & Lewis should be added a point, while Johnson and Edgar Jones should lose a point.
4. Frank Zombo, Rolando McClain ,and other 2010 Rookies still have a 0 for their rookie seasons.
5. Career Weighted AVs are not updated/incorrect due to all the changes within the last 24 hours.
6. The Ravens Front 7 in 1999, 2000, 2004, 2008, 2009, and 2010 are all incorrect (I have sent two emails about this to [email protected]).
That is all I have for now.
More problems:
Playoff players' individual pages are now combining playoff + regular season stats.
Example, Detroit Lions players have 17 GP:
Titus Young
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/Y/YounTi00.htm
Matthew Stafford
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/S/StafMa00.htm
Seems like PFR should have worked out some of these bugs before doing the AV calculations because I'd guess most of the AV is wrong - if even by a point or two here and there.
Thanks for the comments, all -- I am working on cleaning things up for both this year and 2010. We redid the database structure in the offseason and this is the first run of AV against that for 2011 (which obviously had to wait until the AP awards came out), and unfortunately some bugs are coming up that I'm squashing as we speak (or.. type).
For things like Victor Cruz or Ben Tate (who should be fixed now), if you could email [email protected] they will be addressed and that makes it easier for me to track them than having them just in the comments here. I do appreciate the feedback, it's good to know people care enough to notice when things are off.