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What if I Think Defensive Measures and Replacement Level Measures are Meaningless?

Posted by admin on October 4, 2012

If you think all defensive measure are bunk and no better than random noise, use oWAR. It is every part of WAR, but assumes everyone is an average defender.

You can find all of this on the Player Value Registers.

Here are the MLB top 20 position players by oWAR.

Rk Age Tm oWAR ▾
1 Mike Trout 20 LAA 8.6
2 Miguel Cabrera 29 DET 7.5
3 Andrew McCutchen 25 PIT 7.5
4 Buster Posey 25 SFG 7.1
5 Robinson Cano* 29 NYY 6.7
6 Chase Headley# 28 SDP 6.2
7 Ryan Braun 28 MIL 6.0
8 Adrian Beltre 33 TEX 5.4
9 Adam Jones 26 BAL 5.3
10 Ben Zobrist# 31 TBR 5.2
11 Edwin Encarnacion 29 TOR 5.1
12 Prince Fielder* 28 DET 5.0
13 Austin Jackson 25 DET 4.9
14 Joe Mauer* 29 MIN 4.9
15 Yadier Molina 29 STL 4.9
16 David Wright 29 NYM 4.9
17 Aramis Ramirez 34 MIL 4.8
18 Aaron Hill 30 ARI 4.7
19 Melky Cabrera# 27 SFG 4.6
20 Shin-Soo Choo* 29 CLE 4.5
Provided by View Original Table
Generated 10/4/2012.

And if you think replacement level is bunk use WAA or wins above average. For single season measures like MVP races it works just as well as WAR. For careers, you'll probably undervalue average players with long careers.

Here are the top 20 position players by WAA

Rk Age Tm WAA ▾
1 Mike Trout 20 LAA 8.8
2 Robinson Cano* 29 NYY 6.0
3 Buster Posey 25 SFG 5.5
4 Andrew McCutchen 25 PIT 5.2
5 Yadier Molina 29 STL 5.2
6 Ryan Braun 28 MIL 5.0
7 David Wright 29 NYM 4.9
8 Miguel Cabrera 29 DET 4.8
9 Adrian Beltre 33 TEX 4.6
10 Joey Votto* 28 CIN 4.3
11 Chase Headley# 28 SDP 4.2
12 Michael Bourn* 29 ATL 4.1
13 Alex Gordon* 28 KCR 4.0
14 Giancarlo Stanton 22 MIA 4.0
15 Jason Heyward* 22 ATL 3.8
16 Torii Hunter 36 LAA 3.7
17 Aramis Ramirez 34 MIL 3.7
18 Ben Zobrist# 31 TBR 3.6
19 Martin Prado 28 ATL 3.5
20 Bryce Harper* 19 WSN 3.4
Provided by View Original Table
Generated 10/4/2012.

56 Comments | Posted in Advanced Stats, Announcement,, Uncategorized

NFL Records After N Games, Part II

Posted by Neil on October 3, 2012

I posted this a few weeks ago, to answer the basic question of "When an NFL team starts the season with a given record, what winning percentage do they tend to end the season with?":

Longtime S-R friend Carl Bialik of the Wall Street Journal asked to see those numbers broken out by the frequency of each final record, so I thought I'd put that together for today:

Comments Off on NFL Records After N Games, Part II | Posted in Announcement, Data,

Progressive Leaderboards

Posted by Neil on October 2, 2012

Quick note about a feature we have here at Baseball-Reference called Progressive Leaderboards, which lets you see the all-time career & single-season leaders in a given stat (any stat in our Leaders section, actually) after every season, all on one page.

Check it out to see, say, the historical progression of career or season leaders in RBI, or WAR, etc.

Comments Off on Progressive Leaderboards | Posted in Announcement,, Features

Subscribe to the Play Index!

Posted by Neil on October 1, 2012

In case you don't already know about Baseball-Reference's Play Index, it's a set of research tools that allow you to create customizable queries on our database, save the results, and share them with others. Using the PI, you can:

  • Search full-season or multi-year totals to find your own custom leaderboards - Look at the entire history of baseball from 1871-2012 with every year, team, and position available, or filter the results in a vast number of ways: by specific years, by age, by first six seasons or last ten seasons, by American League only, by Cubs only, by switch-hitters, by catchers, by outfielder or infielder, by year of debut, but active or retired, by Hall of Famer, by height and weight, by living or deceased, or by a range of common statistical categories. Then sort the results by any common statistic, by the teams with the most players matching that category, by players with the most seasons matching that category, or by most recent, youngest, oldest, final year, or year of debut, and others.
  • Search player game totals - Filtering on any of a dozen or more choices, search for games on a single player level, or on any batter from 1918-2012, or on any pitcher. The same can be done for Team Batting or Team Pitching Totals.
  • Search player games looking for the most consecutive games matching a particular set of criteria - This can be done either on a single player level or on any batter in the last 95 years or on any pitcher. The same can be done for Team Batting or Team Pitching Streaks.
  • Search the records of a specific player - Output a detailed summary and play-by-play list of all events of a specific type from a single year or an entire career. For example, you can see all of Harmon Killebrew's triples or even his outs to the second baseman.
  • Search Batter vs. Pitcher Matchups - This tool presents a complete sortable list of batter or pitcher with totals for every opponent they faced by career or by year. Clicking on the player's name will lead you to a detailed output of their head-to-head plate appearances.
  • ...And more!

Personal Subscriptions to the Play Index still cost just $36 for a year, $6 for a month, or $2 for 24 hours. Subscriptions may only be used by a single user, and there are discounts for users sponsoring at least $35 in pages.

Organizational Subscriptions can be set up for either an unlimited number of users ($600/year), or for up to five users ($125/year).

There are Two Steps to Subscribe to the Play Index:

  1. Login to or create a account (the same account used to sponsor pages).
  2. Already logged in (or just created an account)? Go to our subscription page to sign up.

Our Always-Available Free Trial: Non-subscribers can use the PI's features as much as you like. However, your outputs will be restricted to a limited number of results.

The Play Index comes with a money back guarantee. We will gladly return the unused portion of any Play Index Subscription should you be dissatisfied with the Play Index.

So go ahead, give the Play Index a try -- we're confident that once you start using it, you'll wonder how you ever got along without it.

Comments Off on Subscribe to the Play Index! | Posted in Announcement,, Features, Play Index

How Many Baseball Writers Have Called or E-mailed to Talk to Me About What Goes Into WAR? Zero.

Posted by admin on September 30, 2012

You may have heard that the AL MVP is between a player who may win the Triple Crown and a player who most (if not all) of the stathead-friendly sites say is the best player in the league this year. There have been a number of articles being written by veteran writers about how stupid WAR is--complaining it's incomprehensible, stupid, meaningless, dumb, formulas are different, etc. etc.

167 Comments | Posted in Advanced Stats, Announcement,

PI Player Streak Finder

Posted by Neil on September 28, 2012

Comments Off on PI Player Streak Finder | Posted in Announcement,, Features, Play Index

NFL Officials Pages

Posted by Mike on September 27, 2012

As you might have noticed, NFL officials have been in the news a bit lately. Because of this, we've just put up NFL officials pages from 2000 through the current season, featuring everyone from the most popular man in Green Bay to a certain workout enthusiast. On each page you'll find season totals which include a breakdown of how his crews tended to call games vs. league averages and below that, complete game logs dating back through the 2000 season.

2 Comments | Posted in Announcement, Features,, Uncategorized

PFR Draft Finder

Posted by Neil on September 27, 2012

Comments Off on PFR Draft Finder | Posted in Announcement, Draft, Features,

BBR Player Similarity Scores

Posted by Neil on September 26, 2012

Comments Off on BBR Player Similarity Scores | Posted in Announcement,, Features

How I Think We’ll Handle Melky and the Batting Title

Posted by admin on September 24, 2012

I admit I'm not a big fan of the decision to withdraw Cabrera from the batting title consideration. He has the highest average based on the rules and regardless of what he was using those hits occurred on the field. Since is pretty much all about what happens on the field, it puts us in a bit of a bind as Cabrera irrefutably (at least as it stands now) has the highest batting average in the league, but the league will not recognize him as the batting champion.

Looking to historical precedent, it's clear to me that we should now and should continue to list Cabrera with the highest batting average in the 2012. However, it shouldn't surprise you that there have been many other cases, though none recently, where the batting titleist at the time and person we currently recognize with the highest batting average don't match up.

The most "recent" case is 1910 where Lajoie had a higher batting average than Cobb, but due to various shenanigans Cobb was given the batting title (though both got the winner's promised automobile).

Likewise in 1902, we list Lajoie ahead of Ed Delahanty. The issues are even larger on the pitching side as the requirements have shifted around before settling on 1 IP per scheduled game (I've seen books citing minimum 10 complete games or 45 innings pitched). Even the 1IP/Gm can cause issues as in 1981 Steve McCatty was the recognized ERA Champion, even though in our opinion Sammy Stewart and Dave Righetti had better ERA's.

To handle this, we've decided to list ERA Leaders and BA leaders as they currently are in the leaderboard pages. These will be updated and change as new data becomes available and we will be apolitical as much as possible in how we draw these leaderboards. This is essentially the status quo.

In addition, though, we will add as awards the Batting Champion and Pitching Champion which will represent the player recognized at the end of the year as the top hitter and top pitcher. And we will strive to denote on each when the winners of the two do not match up.

This way folks can see who was best on the field and who was recognized as such at the time when the season ended.

96 Comments | Posted in Announcement,

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