We all know Oscar Robertson became the only player in NBA history to average a triple-double when he averaged 30.8 PPG, 12.5 RPG and 11.4 APG in 1961-62. Though he didn't have the benefit of first-class air travel, modern nutrition and training techniques, he did have the benefit of playing for a team that averaged an estimated 124.9 possessions per game, while playing over 44 minutes per game. Though I don't want to diminish the stamina required to perform at a high level at such a frenetic pace, the point stands that there were more opportunities for a player to accumulate counting stats in 1962 than there are in 2017, where the average game has about 96 possessions.

Still, even if we adjust statistics to a Per 100 Possessions basis, few have ever matched Oscar's production. Robertson averaged an estimated 26.7 Pts, 10.8 Reb & 9.9 Ast per 100 possessions in 1961-62. At Basketball-Reference, we have estimated per 100 possessions statistics for every player back to 1973-74 (when the advent of tracking of offensive rebounds, among other stats, made the estimates more reliable). From 1973-74 to 2015-16, a total of just four player seasons (by three players) matched The Big O's Per 100 Possession statistics. They were by do-it-all forwards Grant Hill & LeBron James (twice) and then Russell Westbrook, last season. But, now, the 2016-17 NBA season has TWO players doing that. Russell Westbrook, in his most ridiculous form yet, and James Harden, who has emerged as the perfect player for Mike D'Antoni's relentless attack. But it's not that these guys are matching Robertson's production. They're obliterating it.

Let's first consider Westbrook's numbers.

• 44.1 Points Per 100 Possessions: This is a number that Michael Jordan only topped once!
• 15.0 Rebounds Per 100 Possessions: This is a number which matches Karl Malone's best!
• 14.9 Assists Per 100 Possessions: This is more than Jason Kidd ever averaged!

And yet, saying that Westbrook is like a combination of peak Jordan's scoring with peak Malone's rebounding and peak Kidd's passing doesn't even do justice to how breathtaking his level of activity on the floor is.

As for Harden, the numbers aren't as eye-popping as Westbrook's, but his scoring and rebounding are roughly equivalent to peak LeBron James, except with 50% more assists thrown in. So, I guess that's pretty decent.

We have added 2016-17 NBA player projections, using our Simple Projection System, adapted from Tom Tango's Marcel the Monkey Forecasting System.

Please bear in mind that these projections are being published because (1) they were easy and (2) they were fun. That said, we do believe these results will hold up quite well when compared at the end of the season to other (and much more sophisticated) projection systems.

Since we're not controlling substitution patterns, all projections are for per-36 minutes statistics. Please use these responsibly and enjoy!

Good news for fans of zambonis, fighting, and the greatest video game of the 1990s: the NHL has finally returned! After a wild season last year, there are all kinds of juicy storylines to follow this year. Can the Pittsburgh Penguins become the first back-to-back Stanley Cup winners since the Detroit Red Wings of the 1990s? How will the San Jose Sharks bounce back from coming so close and falling short. Will Alex Ovechkin reach 1,000 goals? Can Connor McDavid build upon a promising rookie year and live up to the hype? What round of the Eastern Conference Playoffs will the Washington Capitals be eliminated in this year (I kid, I kid)?

This blog post will seek to answer none of those. Instead, this week, I wanted to dig into one of the major trends that's been sweeping across the NHL the last few years, among fans and front offices alike. I'm talking, of course, about the rise of advanced statistics.

If you're a sports fan, you're probably at least vaguely familiar with Moneyball and the advanced stat wars in baseball. And you may have read articles about how thinkers in other sports, like basketball, have used similar principles to deepen their understanding of the game. This movement has reached hockey in recent years, as researchers have uncovered several new ways of understanding the game beyond the traditional stats like goals, assists, and plus/minus. These new analytics can help us understand why a team is over or under-performing, and whether that performance is sustainable. They can also help us appreciate unsung players who do more for their team than we may realize, because they don't put up flashy traditional numbers.

So, with that in mind, here's some of the basics to get you started in the world of advanced hockey stats. Read the rest of this entry

UPDATE (Feb. 25, 2016): MLB has informed us that they will be updating Brach's 2015 holds total to 15 (matching us). MLB's Cory Schwartz commented: "We do credit Holds whenever the pitcher enters in a Save situation and leaves with the lead intact, so this was an oversight on our part."

It recently came to our attention that for the 2015 season, we credited Brad Brach with 15 holds. MLB, meanwhile, credited Brach with just 14 holds (NOTE: After reading this post, MLB has agreed that 15 is the correct number of holds for Brach in 2015). It was discovered that the difference was in the handling of the Orioles 5-4 win over the Mariners on May 21. Before we jump into the details, let's examine MLB's definition of a hold (bolding is ours, for emphasis):

"The hold is not an official statistic, but it was created as a way to credit middle relief pitchers for a job well done. Starting pitchers get wins, and closers -- the relief pitchers who come in at the end of the game -- get saves, but the guys who pitch in between the two rarely get either statistic. So what's the most important thing one of these middle relievers can do? "Hold" a lead. If a reliever comes into a game to protect a lead, gets at least one out and leaves without giving up that lead, he gets a hold. But you can't get a save and a hold at the same time."

UPDATE (Feb. 26, 2016): Please see MLB's updated Holds definition here

As you can see, this isn't really much of a definition at all. There's little in the way of criteria here, and it's also pointed out that the statistic isn't even official, anyways. In fact, there's enough confusion that MLB.com credits Cory Rasmus with 2 holds in 2015, but Elias (MLB's official statistician) credits him with 1 hold in 2015. We credit him with 2, for what it's worth. This "definition" provides enough room for interpretation that variance in recorded totals is not uncommon.

Being that the statistic is unofficial, explaining all of this might be a pointless exercise, but in an effort to be transparent, we at least want to point out what standard we are using to assign holds.

Our standard is to give a pitcher a hold any time they protect a lead in a save situation (meaning they could have been eligible for a save if they finished the game). Brach presents an interesting study in that May 21 game. Starter Chris Tillman pitched 3 innings and left with a 4-1 lead. Obviously, he was not eligible for the win due to Rule 10.17(b), as he did not complete 5 innings. Tillman was relieved by Brian Matusz, who allowed 2 runs in the 4th, but completed the inning of work and left the game leading 4-3, when Brach took the mound for the 5th inning. Brach completed 2 scoreless innings, but the Mariners tied it up in the 7th after Brach left the game. The Orioles eventually won the game.

With the benefit of hindsight, you could say that Brach would have been in line for the win (not the save) if he had finished the game, since he ended up being more "effective" than Matusz, which would make it nearly a lock that the official scorer would have given him the win. But, hypothetically, Brach could have given up 20 runs in relief, but maintained the lead, and earned the save (with Matusz getting the win). As unlikely as that scenario is, the point here is that we're not using hindsight in assigning holds. In our opinion, the opportunity for a hold is defined when you enter the game and is only removed retroactively if you are given the win.

To be as clear as possible: our policy is to credit a hold when a pitcher enters the game in a save situation and leaves with the lead (and is not later given the win by the official scorer).

As we bolded in MLB's definition of a hold, "If a reliever comes into a game to protect a lead, gets at least one out and leaves without giving up that lead, he gets a hold." It would sure seem to us that Brach's May 21st appearance fits that criteria.

2019-07-09 Update on Long Holds

We were silent on this issue earlier, but we do not give a hold in the situation where a reliever is only in line for a "long save". A long save would be the type where they pitch three innings with the lead to end the game. For example, on June 29th in London Yankee Nester Cortes entered a 14-6 game in the bottom of the 4th with two outs, and a runner on first. This is not a standard save situation. He then pitched three innings in relief and did not relinquish the lead. If he'd gone on to complete the game he would have received a save, but his appearance did not begin as a save situation as the save is dependent on him pitching three innings. We do not include these situations as save situations and do not credit holds in these cases. This is true of most record keepers, but we are aware that MLB gameday did give Cortes a hold in this situation.

This wonderful Hardball Times article spells out the many differences in how holds and blown saves are calculated. It turns out no two sources agree on any of the league totals for holds or blown saves.

We have added an NFL Passer Rating Calculator to our frivolities page which will allow users to calculate NFL passer ratings on the fly. All you need to know to calculate a passer rating are attempts, completions, yards, touchdowns and interceptions. A "perfect" rating comes out to 158.3.

With the list of 2015 Pro Bowlers added, we were able to complete Approximate Value numbers for 2015. As you were perhaps aware, we had previously released a Provisional 2015 AV, but this work has now been completed with the addition of the Pro Bowl data. As anticipated, the values have not been altered in any significant way with the added values. In fact, the top 20 remained the same. J.J. Watt remains the 2015 leader with an AV of 21, and his 88 AV through five seasons remains the most since 1960 (the first season for which we calculate AV).

We just wanted to quickly note that Similarity Scores have been updated on player pages through 2014-15. Similarity Scores attempts to find players whose careers were similar in terms of quality and shape (but not style of play). If you go to Alex Ovechkin's page and scroll down to the Similarity Scores, you'll see that through ten seasons, his career been most similar to Jaromir Jagr's. When comparing entire careers, he scores as most similar to Sidney Crosby.

If you're among the NHL fans lamenting the upcoming shuttering of War on Ice, we just wanted to remind you of the variety of advanced hockey stats we offer on Hockey Reference. While we're perhaps best known as a repository for historical statistics, we have beefed up our analytics in the last few years. In fact, if you click here, you can conveniently see a menu of our analytics offerings. These include:

• The Team Advanced Stats Finder. You can use this tool to search for Play-By-Played based team stats since 2007-08 (like best single-season PDO since 2007-08).
• The Player Advanced Stats Finder. This one is much like the Team Advanced Stats Finder, but focuses on individuals. It also goes back to 2007-08 and allows for search like best Corsi For % in a season.
• Team Advanced Stats Tables. See how every player on a team stacks up in various advanced statistics.
• Team Skater Time on Ice Tables. See how every skater on a team fares (and how much ice time they see) in even strength, power player and short-handed situations.
• Advanced Player Stats Pages. These are available on all player pages since 2007-08 via the "advanced stats" tab on any player's main stats table. Here is Alex Ovechkin's page, for instance. The three tables of information, drawn from analysis of play-by-play, can be viewed for six different situations. It defaults to all situations, but you can also check out even strength, power play, short-handed, 5-on-5, 5-on-5 close and 5-on-5 tied. If you see any numbers that stand out, you can always query them in the Player Advanced Stats Finder to see how they compare to other players.
• Advanced Box Scores. Our boxes have complete advanced stats information going back to 2007-08, including visual shot location charts.
• Utilizing PBP data and shot location data, we have also introduced the metric Expected +/-
• League-wide Player Advanced Stats Table (available back to 2007-08).
• League-wide Player Time-on-Ice Details Table (available back to 2007-08).
• Glossary

LeBron James has moved his career VORP total to 104.46 and now narrowly leads Michael Jordan's 104.44 for most in NBA history. It should be noted that VORP can only be calculated since 1973-74, so Wilt Chamberlain's career is not included (nor are the first four seasons of Kareem Abdul-Jabbar's career). VORP was created by Daniel Myers, in conjunction with Box Plus/Minus. Descriptions of the statistics and how they are calculated can be found here.

A comparison of some of their career regular-season advanced statistics can be seen below:

The first quarter of the 2015-16 NBA season has been dominated by one team: the Golden State Warriors. At 25-1, they've posted the best start in NBA history, with the longest winning streak to start a season and the most wins by a team through its first 26 games. What's transformed the Warriors from an already great team to, potentially, one of the best ever?

You can point to any number of reasons, but a big one is the rise of their unstoppable small-ball lineup. Though an injury to Harrison Barnes caused them to temporarily shelve the lineup, the Warriors' small-ball group has been one of the major stories of the season and figuring out how to stop it will be the main task of any team hoping to unseat the champs. So let's go inside the NBA's equivalent of the Death Star and witness the firepower of this fully armed and operational lineup.

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