If you're among the NHL fans lamenting the upcoming shuttering of War on Ice, we just wanted to remind you of the variety of advanced hockey stats we offer on Hockey Reference. While we're perhaps best known as a repository for historical statistics, we have beefed up our analytics in the last few years. In fact, if you click here, you can conveniently see a menu of our analytics offerings. These include:

• The Team Advanced Stats Finder. You can use this tool to search for Play-By-Played based team stats since 2007-08 (like best single-season PDO since 2007-08).
• The Player Advanced Stats Finder. This one is much like the Team Advanced Stats Finder, but focuses on individuals. It also goes back to 2007-08 and allows for search like best Corsi For % in a season.
• Team Advanced Stats Tables. See how every player on a team stacks up in various advanced statistics.
• Team Skater Time on Ice Tables. See how every skater on a team fares (and how much ice time they see) in even strength, power player and short-handed situations.
• Advanced Player Stats Pages. These are available on all player pages since 2007-08 via the "advanced stats" tab on any player's main stats table. Here is Alex Ovechkin's page, for instance. The three tables of information, drawn from analysis of play-by-play, can be viewed for six different situations. It defaults to all situations, but you can also check out even strength, power play, short-handed, 5-on-5, 5-on-5 close and 5-on-5 tied. If you see any numbers that stand out, you can always query them in the Player Advanced Stats Finder to see how they compare to other players.
• Advanced Box Scores. Our boxes have complete advanced stats information going back to 2007-08, including visual shot location charts.
• Utilizing PBP data and shot location data, we have also introduced the metric Expected +/-
• League-wide Player Advanced Stats Table (available back to 2007-08).
• League-wide Player Time-on-Ice Details Table (available back to 2007-08).
• Glossary

LeBron James has moved his career VORP total to 104.46 and now narrowly leads Michael Jordan's 104.44 for most in NBA history. It should be noted that VORP can only be calculated since 1973-74, so Wilt Chamberlain's career is not included (nor are the first four seasons of Kareem Abdul-Jabbar's career). VORP was created by Daniel Myers, in conjunction with Box Plus/Minus. Descriptions of the statistics and how they are calculated can be found here.

A comparison of some of their career regular-season advanced statistics can be seen below:

With the AP releasing it's All-Pro teams today, we have an important piece of information for constructing our 2015 Approximate Values for NFL players. These numbers will change as Pro Bowl rosters change, but these values give a strong estimate of what the final 2015 AV numbers will look like (since All Pro nods have a far greater impact on AV than Pro Bowl nods do). At this time, the provisional leader in 2015 AV is J.J. Watt, with 21. For the time being, Watt's 88 AV through 5 seasons are the most in NFL history (we calculate AV back to 1960). The previous record had been 84 by Thurman Thomas. Something to ponder is that Watt was drafted between Blaine Gabbert and Christian Ponder in 2011.

As a reminder, Approximate Value is our method (developed by Doug Drinen) for putting a single numerical value on any player's season. You can read all about it here. You can see the all-time leaders in career AV here and the single-season leaders here.

The rest of the top 5 in 2015 Approximate Value can be seen below:

We just wanted to quickly note that we have added new tables of information to the bottom of team pages and also to the seasonal skater registers back to 2007-08.

These tables show average shift length for every player, and also breakdowns of time and performance at even strength, on the power play and shorthanded.

These new tables allow users to dig up the following info, among other things:

• 2015-16 skaters sorted by average shift length
• 2015-16 skaters sorted by Relative Corsi For %
• 2015-16 skaters sorted by Time on Ice per game on the power play
• 2015-16 skaters sorted by Time on Ice per game on penalty kills
• 2015-16 skaters sorted by On-Ice Goals For per 60 minutes

We hope you enjoy this new information. If you have any comments or questions, please reach out to us here.

Hockey Reference is excited to introduce a new advanced hockey statistic we're calling Expected +/-. This new metric, utilizing league-wide shot location data, shows what we'd expect a player's +/- to be, based on where his team's shots and his opponent's shots came from while we has on the ice in even strength situations. The expected value of these shots is based upon league-wide shooting percentages from the various locations.

We have calculated the statistic for 2014-15 thus far, and will be calculating it for seasons moving forward, as well. As we get more shot location data, these values will eventually be based on three-year rolling averages, but as of now, 2014-15 is based entirely upon 2014-15 shot location data. When we say three-year rolling averages, what we mean is that, eventually, 2015-16 Expected +/- will be based upon shooting percentages from various locations on the ice from 2014-15 to 2016-17.

Here's the 2014-15 leaders:

As you can see, the Expected +/- leaderboard differs quite a bit from the actual +/- leaderboard, with only Nikita Kucherov appearing in the top ten of both. Expected +/- can potentially help identify some of the luck factor in raw +/- numbers:

Since this metric considers the quality of shots (or at least their point of origin), it has an advantage over blunter instruments, like Corsi, which consider quantity, but not quality. However, unlike Corsi, Expected +/- does not include info on shots that weren't on goal, that were blocked, etc. So we see the stats as good complements for each other.

Currently, Expected +/- can be found for all players on the advanced tab of the 2014-15 Skaters register. Additionally, it can found in the Miscellaneous table on player pages.

On a game level, we have added shot charts to our box scores, as well. In the future, we plan to add heat maps showing shooting percentages by location for players, goalies, teams and league seasons. We will also be incorporating Expected +/- into our Player Advanced Stats Finder to allow for customized searches on this metric.

Finally, we would like to thank Wesley Yue for his valuable contributions to this concept.

If I can be honest with you for a moment, I think my approach to fantasy football could use some work. Each year, I agree to join a friend's league and promptly forget about it until the hour before the draft, at which point, I binge read every draft kit and fantasy guide that I can put in front of my face. No matter what, it always ends the same way: me panicking in the 7th round and trying to draft Tshimanga Biakabutuka.

This year will be different. Why? Because this year, we're going to use Pro Football Reference. No more fighting for the same 5 sleepers everyone else wants or drafting Brandon Marshall three rounds too early because you forgot that he got traded to the Jets. We're going to get through this together, you guys.

This year, we've ramped up fantasy coverage on PFR, adding a lot of red zone and matchup data to give you all the info you need. So from the draft, to setting your lineup, to dominating the waiver wire, here's seven ways that PFR will lead you to fantasy glory.

1. We Have Fantasy Points!

That's right, we keep track of fantasy points, based on standard scoring systems (read the details in the glossary). That means that, if you're considering drafting a player, you can pull up his page and see a chart like this:

Those are DeMarco Murray's fantasy numbers. In addition to the raw fantasy points, we also have a number called VBD, which subtracts a player's overall fantasy score from the “baseline” score, which is the score of the 12^th-ranked QB, 24^th-ranked RB, 30^th-ranked WR, or 12^th-ranked TE, giving you a number that's roughly fantasy football's cousin to Runs Above Average. Lastly, you can see both his overall rank vs the baseline and positional rank.

VBD is how we determine the overall rank; it lets us see the players who most outperformed the baseline for their position and gave players the biggest advantage over the competition. By VBD, here's the top performers since 2012:

As you can see RBs have an advantage, coming in first all three years (2011's leader was Aaron Rodgers). However, there does tend to be a non-RB player in the top 5. All in all, last year's Top 20 included 8 RBs, 9 WRs, 2 QBs, and 1 Gronk.

However, we're just scratching the surface of the data. In the grey bar towards the top of a player's profile, you'll see a fantasy section. If you click on it, you can get a table like this:

Those are DeMarco Murray's game-by-game fantasy stats for 2014. You can see his points, snap counts, and red zone data (hold that thought on the last one).

2. The Season Finder is Rad...

Of course, having fantasy stats is one thing, but actually harnessing them is another. That's where the Play Index comes in. Just like how you can use the Season Finder to sort through traditional season stats like passing yards and receiving TDs, you can also sift through fantasy points. For example, here's the 2014 fantasy point leaders:

Torn between a RB or a QB with a late first round pick? This can help you strategize. Depending on who is still on the board, you can use the season finder to compare the dropoff from the top QB to one further down the list and see if it would be higher than, say, the dropoff from the 6^th or 7^th RB. But the Season Finder may be more useful in making decisions within a position. For example, here's the top 15 WRs in Fantasy Points since 2012:

While we may want to believe that a Larry Fitzgerald bounceback is coming, he's only been the 27th highest ranked WR over the last three years. On the other hand, while Andre Johnson's numbers lagged a little last year, over the last three seasons he's been a Top 10 WR, and he's upgrading at QB from Ryan Fitzpatrick to Andrew Luck. ESPN has him going 25^th among WR, meaning you could be buying low on a nice rebound candidate.

3. ...But the Game Finder May Be Better

Of course, unless you're in a somewhat unusual league, these season numbers will only do so much. Most of us play fantasy football week-to-week, game-to-game. If only there were some tool that let you search individual games the same way the Season Finder does with seasons...wait, there is!

It's called the Game Finder and it's incredible. You can get info on a game-by-game level, which means that you can actually break down the numbers to the basic unit of a fantasy season. And, of course, the Game Finder has Fantasy Points like the Season Finder. So, for example, if you care about consistency, you can see who has the most 18+ point games since 2012:

Some of these bets seem like safer ones than others (Hi, RG3), but if you're picking between Big Ben (ranked 6 among QBs by ESPN) or Cam (ranked 8th), this can be one factor you keep in mind. On the other hand, if you prefer a high ceiling, you can set the parameters higher. For example, these are the players with 30 point games last year:

A good fantasy team will balance risky players with high ceilings and consistent players with low floors. With the Game Finder, you can get both.

4. Check the Red Zone

Remember that DeMarco Murray chart I showed you earlier. Well, it shows off one of our newest features: red zone data. We can track targets, carries, yards, and TDs on plays that start within the 20 and within the 10:

This gives you a lot of info. Not only can you see how many times someone scored, but you can also see how many times the team tried to score with them. In theory, someone with more targets could see their TD numbers go up if he keeps getting the same opportunities. On the other hand, you may want to bet on the high-efficiency players who convert more of their targets into scores (click to enlarge):

We track these numbers for rushing and passing, as well as receiving. More importantly, we'll be keeping tabs on these in 2015 too. Just click over to any 2015 NFL season page and hover over fantasy on the grey menu bar. Once the season starts, we'll have all the data you need to win on the waiver wire, as well as in your draft.

5. Know Your Advanced Stats

Anybody can look at passing yards or TDs for a quarterback, but our database goes deeper, with per attempt numbers and index stats.

For quarterbacks, we track yards per attempt, but also advanced stats like Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A) and Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt (ANY/A). If you're a basketball fan, you can think of it as something similar to TS%. If you're not a basketball fan or don't know that stat, these numbers adjust a player's yardage per attempt to give them additional credit for TDs and blame for INTs. To decide which one to use, you'll want to know if your league penalizes QBs for sacks. If so, you'll want to use ANY/A, which accounts for sacks. If not, stick with AY/A, which only covers passing yards, TDs, and INTs. Looking at the AY/A leaders with at least 200 attempts last year, here's what you get:

Because this is a rate state, and fantasy is a game of bulk, a top scorer like Andrew Luck may be a little lower than where you'd take him in a draft. However, it can alert you to potential warning signs or point out potential sleepers. If the Saints try to run more this year, per rumors, Drew Brees may lose a lot of his value, since his AY/A is already low and his bulk production would also go down (on the other hand, perhaps a more balanced attack would make him more efficient). Meanwhile, guys like Roethlisberger or Tony Romo could be good value picks if you wait on a QB. Or maybe just take Aaron Rodgers and don't overthink it.

With new advanced stats, it can sometimes be tough to tell who is better than whom, and by how much. That's why I like looking at index stats. An index stat will be familiar to anyone whose ever seen ERA+ or OPS+ in baseball. We have index stats for pretty much all the important passing numbers, so rather than looking at just Passing TD%, something like TD%+ might be easier to digest.

With an index stat, it will always be indicated by a + or - (for these passing stats, you'll only need to worry about the +). A score of 100 means that the player's number was average for that season. If it's higher than that, it means they were that percentage better than average. Lower, and it means they were that much worse:

Tony Romo's 138 means that his TD% was 38% better than average, meaning, again, he could be a sneaky play. Or you could go with Rodgers or Luck and know you'll have an elite TD-slinging QB.

Putting it all together, here's a scatter plot showing the Top 16 fantasy QBs (plus Ryan Fitzpatrick, who grades out surprisingly well by these metrics). On one axis, we have Y/A, giving us an idea of their efficiency and yardage totals. On the other, we have TD%+, for their scoring. The size of the circles reflects the number of pass attempts, giving us some idea of bulk (click on the picture to enlarge):

6. Play the Matchups

The draft is just the start of your season, and we'll be there to help as you navigate the endless lineup tinkering that comes with the fantasy season. In order to win, you'll be spending a lot of time researching the teams that your players are facing. Fortunately, we keep tables with all sorts of team defensive data.

Remember AY/A? I mean, we were just talking about it. Well, not only can you see it for the QBs, but you can check team's AY/A against, to get a look at how their defense has fared beyond simple points and yards allowed:

Even though Washington was merely a bottom 10 team by passing yards allowed, their AY/A shows that they got pummeled through the air. Of course, defense is not always consistent from year-to-year, so you'll want to pay close attention to how the 2015 numbers start to shake out early.

This year, our database goes even deeper, with matchup data by position. For instance, here's how every team's defense fared against TEs in 2014:

As if Gronk weren't valuable enough, he also gets 4 games this season against teams who were in the Top 5 for easiest matchups against TEs. Of course, he'll also be playing 3 against the 2 toughest TE matchups in the league. Just like with the red zone data, we'll be updating matchup data for 2015 in the fantasy section, so check these tables every week and adjust your lineup accordingly

7. Don't Worry, We Didn't Forget About Daily Fantasy

If you're using a Daily Fantasy site to play fantasy football without putting too much strain on your attention span, don't worry. We've got both FanDuel and DraftKings numbers in the database too. So all those nifty searches I showed you in the Season Finder and Game Finder? You can do those with Daily Fantasy points too! Here, for example, is every player with 8 or more games worth 20 points or more in DraftKings:

Not only that, but our matchup data includes FanDuel and DraftKings points, as well as standard fantasy, meaning you can pore over those tables and search for the player who makes you a millionaire. Don't forget to check the red zone numbers too!

With Pro Football Reference, and the powerful search tools of the Play Index, you basically have your own front office and scouts. See, I told you we were going to get through this together. Unless you're in my league; in that case, everything I just said is a complete lie and you should draft Tebow first overall.

What is your favorite kind of baseball play? I imagine a lot of people would go with a classic like the dinger. Or perhaps you prefer the swinging strikeout? I imagine Red Sox fans who were in Fenway for Game 4 of the 2004 ALCS may be partial to the stolen base. No matter what it is, I'm very jealous of you, because your favorite play has an easily understood definition and mine does not: Read the rest of this entry

Just wanted to show off a couple new features that we've recently introduced...

When you find yourself on our team season pages look for the "Game-by-game roster status" links:

These will bring you to a Roster Status page with a color-coded visualization of each player's roster status for the 82 regular season games, and the playoffs. Designations include Starter, Reserve, DNP, Inactive, and Suspended. Note that a player's status is also noted on boxscores and our player gamelogs. Notable in 2014-15 are the Raptors, Bulls, and Magic, all of whom maintained a stable roster throughout the season. The Sixers page is a lot of fun to look at, too.

We've published these going back to 2013-14, and should hopefully extend that period at some point.

The other new feature is a historical time series of roster continuity for each currently-active franchise. Our accounting begins with 1952-53 given that the season prior is the first for which we have Minutes Played data for every league player.

Several years ago former colleague Neil Paine published some musings on our blog about Team Continuity, and Dean Oliver devotes a couple pages in his Basketball on Paper book in the context of historically bad teams. The Spurs are well-noted stalwarts of year-to-year stability - on the other hand, the Cavaliers and Mavericks show that it's possible to turn over most of your minutes and not come apart at the seams, especially if one of your newcomers is LeBron James.

You can find a link to this page on our Frivolous Pages index, under Roster Continuity.

One of the things I love about SABR is how dedicated (and borderline crazy) some of the researchers are and how their years and years of work can bear fruit in unexpected ways. (I'm sure I love it because I have more than a bit of that in me as well.) In next month's Baseball Research Journal, an article by Herm Krabbenhoft will show that Heinie Zimmerman had the highest RBI total in the 1912 NL, and when paired with his undisputed batting title and 14 home runs, he won the triple crown.
Read the rest of this entry

Just a note that we have added Box Plus/Minus (BPM) to our College Basketball site this week.

As outlined in its introduction to Basketball Reference, BPM is an advanced stat intended to measure a player's total contribution as reflected by advanced, context-dependent box-score metrics like USG% and AST%. It was developed for the NBA using regression techniques against a 14-year-long sample of historical Regularized Adjusted Plus-Minus (RAPM) data. BPM estimates the number of points contributed by a player greater or less than an average player, per 100 team possessions.

We're able to calculate BPM for seasons dating back to 2010-11 and it can be found initially on player pages in the 'Advanced' table, on our school season pages, also in the 'Advanced' table, and we've also added several advanced stats - including PER, Win Shares, and BPM - to the conference registers, along the right side of that page. (see below image). However, the best way to view BPM, as a sorted leaderboard, or according to any other criteria - is to use our Play Index search tools.

Again, our thanks to the creator of BPM, Daniel Myers, and to those whose work serves as a component. The methodology and logic of Box Plus/Minus (BPM) is discussed in our About section, and please note the section specifically for the NCAA.

(Note that the 'Advanced' tables on the player and schools pages have changed just a little, to accommodate the new stats. Individual ORtg and DRtg have been moved to the 'Per 100 Possessions' tables and Points Produced - the main component of ORtg - has been moved further to the left on the 'Advanced' table.)

* We have published BPM but not VORP for college basketball, unlike the NBA.  Value over Replacement Player (VORP) owes its meaning and derivation to a market with salaried players and teams on an equal footing, and thus an easy-to-establish theoretical "replacement level", which doesn't exist or make sense for the NCAA.