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Win Probability Calculator

Posted by Mike on November 6, 2013

By now you've likely seen our win probability tweets or the graphs on box score pages. Today I've pushed out a win probability calculator into which you can put any game situation & get a corresponding win probability. For instance, say it's the 4th quarter and you're trailing by 2 with the ball on your own 20 at 2nd & 10 and 29 seconds remaining, the calculator says you have a 3.8% probability of winning (don't tell the Jets that, though).

Looking at this weekend's Bears-Packers game, we can figure out the risk the Bears took in going for it on 4th and 1 on their own 32 in the 4th quarter. If they fail and the Packers take over at that spot, Green Bay will have a 55.9% win probability (ignoring that our model knows nothing about Aaron Rodgers' injury, of course). However, by succeeding Chicago raised their own win probability to 80.6%.

11 Comments | Posted in Advanced Stats, Announcement, Pro-Football-Reference.com

Added Advanced Stats to NBA Playoff Series Pages

Posted by Neil on October 16, 2013

Just a quick note that our NBA Playoff Series pages now have advanced stats tables, so you can learn that, for instance, Chris Andersen and Chauncey Billups both had Offensive Ratings north of 150 in this 2009 playoff series.

We also added Four Factors tables to the series summary pages, wherein you'll find nuggets like Phoenix's ridiculous 122.7 team Offensive Rating against the Warriors in this 1994 series. Enjoy!

1 Comment | Posted in Advanced Stats, Announcement, Basketball-Reference.com, Features, Playoffs

Grand Slams with 4 Pitchers Receiving Earned Runs

Posted by admin on October 14, 2013

Last night's Ortiz Grand Slam was the first in the postseason and 8th time in the RetroSheet canon (but probably overall) that four pitchers received earned runs on one play.

| game_id      | result_batter | batting_team_id | pitching_team_id | event_text           | home      | first     | second    | third     |
+--------------+---------------+-----------------+------------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
| BOS201310130 | ortizda01     | BOS             | DET              | HR/9/L9D.3-H;2-H;1-H | benoijo01 | albural01 | smylydr01 | verasjo01 |
+--------------+---------------+-----------------+------------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
+--------------+---------------+-----------------+------------------+-------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
| game_id      | result_batter | batting_team_id | pitching_team_id | event_text              | home      | first     | second    | third     |
+--------------+---------------+-----------------+------------------+-------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
| MIN196107041 | becquju01     | MIN             | CHW              | HR/9D.3-H;2-H;1-H       | hackewa02 | baumafr01 | kemmeru01 | piercbi02 |
| SEA198208060 | jacksre01     | CAL             | SEA              | HR/9.3-H;2-H;1-H        | vandeed01 | stantmi01 | anderla02 | bannifl01 |
| DET198307100 | parrila02     | DET             | OAK              | HR/7.3-H(UR);2-H;1-H    | jonesje01 | beardda01 | burgmto01 | codirch01 |
| SFN198709200 | esaskni01     | CIN             | SFG              | HR/7D.3-H;2-H;1-H       | perlmjo01 | leffecr01 | downske01 | robindo01 |
| SEA198805060 | sheripa01     | DET             | SEA              | HR/9.3-H;2-H;1-H        | jacksmi02 | solanju01 | powelde01 | mooremi01 |
| SDN200109010 | lankfra01     | SDP             | ARI              | HR/89.3-H;2-H;1-H       | kimby01   | sabeler01 | knotter01 | batismi01 |
| LAN200410020 | finlest01     | LAD             | SFG              | HR/89/F.3-H;2-H(UR);1-H | frankwa01 | hergema01 | chrisja01 | hermadu01 |

6 Comments | Posted in Advanced Stats, Announcement, Baseball-Reference.com, History, Stat Questions, Statgeekery, Trivia

Win Probability Explained

Posted by Mike on October 7, 2013

You may have seen our in-game Tweets and the win probability graphs on our box score pages -- we now have a detailed explanation of the win probability methodology from Neil Paine if you're curious how it works.

1 Comment | Posted in Advanced Stats, Announcement, Pro-Football-Reference.com

2013 Sim Scores Updated – Baseball-Reference.com

Posted by admin on September 30, 2013

Mike Trout Statistics and History - Baseball-Reference.com.

Ignoring for the moment there is another game to play tonight, I ran the sim scores this afternoon and uploaded the pages. I'll get around to rerunning them tomorrow, probably for the Rays and Rangers. Here is our explanation of sim scores.

1 Comment | Posted in Advanced Stats, Announcement, Baseball-Reference.com

Are you a Web Developer Who Loves Sports? Let’s Talk.

Posted by admin on August 9, 2013

Jobs @ Sports Reference.

Sports Reference has an immediate opening for a web developer. Please see our job advertisement for all of the details. We will begin reviewing applications on August 26th.

7 Comments | Posted in Advanced Stats, All-Star, Announcement, Baseball-Reference.com, Basketball-Reference.com, Bleg, CBB at Sports Reference, CFB at Sports Reference, expire21d, General, Hockey-Reference.com, Olympics at S-R, Pro-Football-Reference.com, Statgeekery

Errata: Minor Stats Corrections Coming to the Site

Posted by admin on July 15, 2013

By the nature of our update process these will take a week or two to roll out to the site, but they'll get there eventually. This note below is from one of our data producers and represent a set of updates we'll be incorporating into the site.

One of the great aspects of the baseball research community is their dogged determination to get things right even it is a mixup between Tom Maher and Frank Mahar in 1902.

1 Comment | Posted in Advanced Stats, Announcement, Baseball-Reference.com, expire40d, Statgeekery, Trivia

Approximate Value Added for Kickers and Punters

Posted by Neil on June 14, 2013

Today, we added a new feature to our popular Approximate Value metric on the site -- AV totals for kickers and punters. (Don't worry, we've warned Doug Drinen, and he hasn't suffered any adverse health side-effects that we know of.)

The methodology is described in tortuous detail on the AV formula page, but we basically looked at salary data to calibrate kicker and punter AV against our existing AV data, and used some simple metrics (kicking points added above average using distance data; punting gross yards per attempt w/ an adjustment for blocks) to measure kicking/punting performance. The best career AVs in each category are as follows:

We're still working out some AV kinks (particularly in terms of All-Pro bonuses) with certain players who played both kicker/punter and another position -- think Lou Groza -- but for the most part we're happy with the results, and we thought it was time special-teamers got their AV due.

5 Comments | Posted in Advanced Stats, Announcement, Features, History, Pro-Football-Reference.com, Statgeekery

Search Our Stats Using the Play Index

Posted by Neil on June 10, 2013

It's the Finals, so that means it's time for a reminder to check out the Basketball-Reference Play Index. In case you don't already know about the PI, it's a set of research tools that allow you to create customizable queries on our database, save the results, and share them with others. With the PI, you can:

  • Use the Player Season Finder to search through all NBA, ABA, & BAA players' regular season and playoff statistics for performances that match your criteria.
  • Use the Player Game Finder to search through NBA players' regular season and playoff game logs (since 1985-86) for games matching your criteria.
  • Use the Head-to-Head Finder to search for games in which two selected players played against each other.
  • Search for player and team consecutive-game streaks that match your criteria using the Streak Finders.
  • Search for team performances that meet your criteria with the Team Season Finder and Team Game Finder.
  • Use the Draft Finder to search through every NBA/BAA draft for picks that match your criteria.
  • Use the Player Comparison Finder to compare the stats of up to four players through (or in) a given season.

Also, take a look at the Play Index Plus for even more data-searching goodness. The PI+ lets you sift through the play-by-play data of every game since 2001, making it possible to look for specific events, lineup data, and shooting stats (including clutch shots and shot breakdowns by distance).

Best of all, these features are 100% free to use! So go ahead, give them a try, and you'll wonder how you ever got along without them.

Comments Off | Posted in Advanced Stats, Announcement, Basketball-Reference.com, CBB at Sports Reference, Features, History, Play Index

Everything You Wanted to Know About Wins Above Replacement (WAR)

Posted by Neil on June 5, 2013

With Wins Above Replacement (WAR) gaining more prominence since last season, it's a good time to remind everyone about our WAR 2.2 guide:

  • Baseball-Reference.com WAR Explained - This explains the basics of WAR, the philosophy behind the stat, and some of the changes we made to the formula the past few years.
  • Weighted Runs Above Average (wRAA) Explained - This describes how wRAA, the core hitting stat of WAR, is computed.
  • Position Player WAR Calculations and Details - This explains how we turn wRAA, Baserunning & Double-Play Runs, Fielding Runs, Positional Adjustment Runs, and Replacement level Runs into WAR for position-players.
  • Pitcher WAR Calculations and Details - This explains how we take a pitcher's runs allowed & innings pitched, and turn it into WAR.
  • Converting Runs to Wins - This further describes the process by which Runs Above Replacement (for both pitchers and position players) are converted into Wins Above Replacement.
  • WAR Comparison Chart - This chart shows the differences between the WAR found here at Baseball-Reference and those from a variety of other sources, including FanGraphs & Baseball Prospectus.
  • WAR Data Downloads - If you want to download the raw WAR data yourself and play around with it, you can also get the Batting and Pitching data from our site.

Many of the questions we typically get about WAR can be answered by reading the guide linked above.

8 Comments | Posted in Advanced Stats, Announcement, Baseball-Reference.com, Data, FAQ, Features, Stat Questions, Tips and Tricks, WAR

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