Sports Reference Blog

There's a few days that every baseball fan has saved in her Google Calendar. Opening Day, the All-Star Game, and Game 1 of the World Series all loom large, but another highlight of every year is the Trade Deadline.

This year's Trade Deadline looks like it could be a little slower and less star-packed than last year's, when stars like David Price, Cole Hamels, and Troy Tulowitzki were on the move. However, four of the six division leaders have a team within 4 games of them, and both Wild Card races are still wide opening, meaning a lot of teams are incentivized to make a deal.

But whom should they be trying to trade for? And what positions to target? Fortunately, Baseball-Reference has a very easy way to visualize how teams are doing by positions, as measured by Wins Above Average (WAA).

Unlike it's more famous cousin, Wins Above Replacement, WAA has a higher baseline for production. Instead of a hypothetical "replacement player," the quad-A-type hitter or pitcher that any team can acquire at basically no cost at any time, WAA measure production against an average MLB player.

Average MLB players are actually rather valuable commodities. On the WAR scale, an average MLB starter is worth about 2 wins, which is a pretty good season. In 2015, here's a list of some of the players who graded out as averagish according to WAA:

 

The ones who were free agents did quite well for themselves. Zobrist, for example, signed a four-year deal worth over $50 million, and while Desmond only made $8 million, his value was dragged down somewhat by the qualifying offer.

Simply put, obtaining average production at a given position is extremely difficult. So let's go position-by-position to look at where contenders are struggling and see if we can't find a match.

Starting Pitcher

We start with MLB's most volatile commodity: starting pitching! Of the six teams leading their divisions, five are in the Top 10 for starter WAA and four are in the Top 5. The one outlier: the Baltimore Orioles. The Os are trapped in a tight race with the Toronto Blue Jays (who are doing pretty well with SP) and the Boston Red Sox.

While the Sox just acquired Drew Pomeranz, the fact that they're so far down the rankings, and that they're ranked higher in every other position, means that they would almost certainly welcome a further upgrade. The Pittsburgh Pirates have a tougher road, but they're just 2.5 games out of the second Wild Card, so it could be worth hunting a deal to improve the sixth worst pitching staff in the majors.

Whom to trade with? After struggling for years, the Colorado Rockies have built one of the top 10 starting pitching staffs in the majors. But could they be convinced to part with one of their young arms, given that two of their top three SPs are still on their rookie deals and the third, Tyler Chatwood, just recently returned from a back injury.

Another top 10 WAA team, the Philadelphia Phillies, sits 10 games out of the NL Wild Card, far enough back that they have to at least think about trading away some of their older players. In particular, Jeremy Hellickson seems like a good trade candidate. With 1.1 WAA, Hellickson is in the midst of a bit of a resurgence, posting his best year since 2012. At age 29, Hellickson will be a free agent at the end of the year, making him an obvious trade candidate. His more modest value might make him an appealing acquisition for the Baltimore, given that the Orioles' farm system is largely barren, containing just one Baseball America preseason Top 100 prospect.

But teams like the Red Sox (who had four Top 20 prospects before trading one away) might want to aim higher. That's why they may want to move down the list to number 13: the Chicago White Sox. After his meltdown on Saturday, there's a chance that the Sox could be ready to trade away the #1 enemy of fabrics and uniforms everywhere, Chris Sale. Sale leads the American League in wins this year and he's a superstar who is widely recognized as one of the best pitchers in MLB. But digging below the surface, there's some reason for concern with Sale.

After a disappointing 2015, where Sale posted his lowest WAR since becoming a full-time starter, Sale has largely bounced back in 2016. He's one start away from surpassing his 2015 WAR, and his Earned Run Average is down to 3.18, from 3.41. However, his Fielding Independent Pitching has swollen to 3.70. A higher FIP than ERA, as you probably know, can be a canary in the coal mine for pitcher regression. Sale's rise in FIP is tied to a steep drop in strikeout rate. His strikeouts per 9 innings is currently 8.7, down from 11.8 last year.

But this is at least in part due to an intentional change in approach by Sale, to emphasize contact over getting strikeouts. And, if it's getting the desired outcome (a lower ERA), then maybe it's not a sign of regression at all, but a plan coming together? Either way, if Boston and Chicago went ahead with it, it would be the 52nd trade between the two Sox franchises.

Relief Pitcher

The Chicago Cubs have already made a big move for Aroldis Chapman, leaving the Jays and the Texas Rangers as obvious teams in need of an upgrade. Both teams should be looking hard at the Oakland Athletics' bullpen. Would Billy Beane be willing to give up 26-year-old rookie Ryan Dull? Dull has already been worth close to 2 WAR this year.

For a team like the Rangers, who are in the driver's seat for their division, it might be worth giving up more for a quality young reliever than for the Blue Jays, who are just fighting for an AL Wild Card spot. On the more affordable end, Mark Rzepczynski has been worth 0.6 WAR this year and is set to be a free agent, making him a more frugal addition.

Catcher

Let's not overthink this one. The Cleveland Indians lead the AL Central by 4.5 games and have the best run differential in the AL, despite getting the worst production at catcher of any team in MLB. Meanwhile, the Milwaukee Brewers are 11th in the National League and 11 games out of the 2nd Wild Card, but they have one of the best catchers in the majors in Jonathan Lucroy. Lucroy's contract contains a cheap team option for 2017, making him more than just a rental, and the Indians have the minor league depth, including five Top 100 prospects, to put together a good offer.

There's no time like the present when you've got a shot at your first title since 1948 and have the chance to help Mark Cuban make a little of that City of Champions money after all.

First Baseman

On paper, this has the potential to be really interesting. The Washington Nationals have the second worst 1B situation in the majors, ahead of only a team that's given Ryan Howard almost 200 Plate Appearances at the position this year. The Nats also have two Top 10 prospects and a four-game lead in the NL East. And, at the other end, three of the top 5 1B teams are out of the playoff race this year.

But while conditions would seem ripe for a blockbuster, there's been very little buzz about any major 1B move for Paul Goldschmidt, Wil Myers, or Freddie Freeman. For the Arizona Diamondbacks, Goldschmidt is signed to one of the most team-friendly contracts in baseball through 2019 and the team can hope to contend next year when A.J. Pollack returns from injury. Dealing Myers doesn't make a lot of sense for San Diego, since he's just 25 years old and won't even start his arbitration years until this winter. And, while the Braves aren't built to win now, Freeman is signed through 2022, meaning that "now" can afford to be a ways away.

As much fun as it is for neutral fans to imagine one of these big time sluggers joining Bryce Harper and Daniel Murphy for an October run, it's probably not in the cards for this year.

Second Baseman

There are no obvious matches with the same star power here, but it's worth noting that Tampa Bay Rays' trade chip Steve Pearce actually played a little 2B this year and was very slightly above average in the small sample size by Defensive Runs Saved. He probably still has more value as 1B, where he's spent more time and is generally more suited to fielding, but those few games at 2B might be enough to convince a team with a need at both positions, like the New York Mets, to take a shot on him.

Third Baseman

But the Rays and Mets may actually be a better fit on another player: Evan Longoria. Longo has had an excellent 2016, already accumulating 3.0 WAR and looking well on his way to his best season since 2013. But Longoria has had injury issues the last couple of years and he's signed through 2023, his age-37 season.

More to the point, the Mets already have an aging former MVP candidate third baseman signed through 2020. While David Wright is out for the season, he has four years and $67 million left on his contract. But it's hard to imagine a scenario where he plays to that contract. When he did play this year, Wright was largely ineffective, playing below replacement level. In total, he's posted just 0.3 WAR since the start of the 2015 season. And the last time the Mets acquired a star from a Florida team, it worked out pretty well.

But assuming the Mets look for a more low-impact rental, there are other teams that can afford to take a shot on Longo. The Indians could use an upgrade from the forgettable Juan Uribe, and the San Francisco Giants have actually expressed interest in trading for Longoria. Though they're 14th in WAA, the Dodgers have been surging lately, narrowing the gap in the NL West to just 2.5 games. Either way, the time may have come for the Rays to part with one of their first true home-grown stars and the franchise leader in WAR, Home Runs, and OPS+.

Shortstop

The pickings here are pretty slim unless the Kansas City Royals, currently 11th in the AL, think they have another underdog run in them. And while the Rangers have too many infielders and might be open to trading away Jurickson Profar, they'll also probably hesitate to improve any of the teams who they could end up facing in the postseason.

Left Field/Right Field

The Blue Jays were ahead of the curve, grabbing Melvin Upton from the Padres, a team led to 6th in left fielder WAA. Still there are other teams in need of an upgrade. The Dodgers are suffering with Howie Kendrick and Yasiel Puig in the corners, while the Nats could use an upgrade on Jayson Werth.

Affordable options are out there, with Josh Reddick and Jay Bruce being two of the most talked about players on the market. Teams looking at the duo should lean towards Reddick. While Bruce has been battling for first place in the NL in Runs Batted In, his overall production this year has been slightly below average. While that's mainly to his extreme shortcomings in the field, there's slight cause for concern on his hitting numbers.

Bruce is in the Top 10 in both HRs and Slugging Percentage, of course, but those numbers don't take into account how hitter-friendly his park is. His OPS+ of 133, while good, puts his hitting more in the Top 30 than the Top 10. He also ranks behind fellow corner outfield trade candidate Carlos Beltran in that measure.

But we're talking about the Dodgers; let's aim a little higher. Ryan Braun's had a bit of a late career resurgence; he's on track for his second straight 3 WAR season after a couple of below average years. He's also led the Brewers to have the third most productive left field situation in the majors this year. That would be a big improvement, in both production and star power, from what the Dodgers have been getting.

And, over in right field, the team in third in WAA on that side may also be looking to make a deal. While Adam Eaton is signed to a much better contract than Braun, he's also 27-years-old. If the White Sox decide to trade Sale, blow it up, and start rebuilding, Eaton might not be as productive by the time the team is ready to contend again.

Center Field

Unfortunately, Jon Jay's injury means that there's no real obvious trade candidates in this position. That's because, while it's become a popular discussion point in MLB circles, it's the official position of Baseball-Reference that the Los Angeles Angels would have to be utterly insane to trade Mike Trout.

Trout has currently been worth 44.4 WAR in his career. That's the 2nd most by a position player through his age-24 season in Major League history. Here's his cohort:

And here's what thise players did from age 25-28, with their overall rank in WAR by a position player from ages 25-28 next to his name:

History suggests that a player who starts like Trout has been worth at least 7 WAR per year through the length of Mike Trout's current contract. And to this point, Trout has been a better player than all of those guys except Ty Cobb.

Think of it this way: This year, Mike Trout has been worth 4.9 WAA; the New York Mets, a playoff contender, have a total of 5 WAA. They would have to trade their entire roster to match Trout's value.

The Angels are certainly in a tough position. But it's hard to believe that trading away a once-in-a-lifetime player four years before free agency can improve that position.

This entry was posted on Thursday, July 28th, 2016 at 11:45 am and is filed under Announcement, Baseball-Reference.com, WAR. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.