The Real Field of 64?
Posted by Neil Paine on March 16, 2010
As much fun as the next few weeks will be, I think we can all acknowledge that the NCAA Tournament field does not represent the 64 best D-I basketball teams in the country (nor does it represent the 64 most “accomplished” teams in the land, however you want to define that). Automatic bids to teams from small conferences give the tourney a feeling of equality and tiny schools a chance to shine on a big stage, but the most talented team in the NIT field would still be favored by a wide margin against many of the NCAA Tourney’s lower seeds. I’m not complaining about this reality, mind you, and I certainly don’t begrudge the NCAA for giving an opportunity to small-conference and mid-major teams. But do you ever wonder what the NCAA field would look like if it did only include the 64 “best” or “most accomplished” teams in the nation?
For this exercise, we’ll rank teams two different ways: by SRS (adjusted for home-court advantage), which should be the truest measure of a team’s “talent” over the course of the entire season because point margin is the best predictor of future W-L%; and by the BBR Ranking method, which also accounts for schedule strength and game location but focuses on a team’s wins and losses only (point differential is only factored into the SOS adjustment). As a subset of each ranking, we’ll take a look at how the bracket would look if the field ranked teams 1-64 straight-up, as well as if every conference still had an automatic bid — but that bid went to the conference’s highest-ranked team instead of the tournament champ. First, here are the 64 best teams in the country by SRS:
Rank | Team | Conf | G | W | L | MOV | SOS | SRS |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Kansas | B12 | 34 | 32 | 2 | 17.26 | 7.93 | 25.18 |
2 | Duke | ACC | 34 | 29 | 5 | 15.55 | 8.88 | 24.44 |
3 | Syracuse | BE | 32 | 28 | 4 | 13.51 | 7.32 | 20.84 |
4 | Kentucky | SEC | 34 | 32 | 2 | 13.05 | 6.43 | 19.49 |
5 | Brigham Young | MWC | 33 | 28 | 5 | 16.83 | 2.62 | 19.45 |
6 | Kansas St | B12 | 32 | 25 | 7 | 9.60 | 9.55 | 19.15 |
7 | Ohio State | B10 | 34 | 27 | 7 | 12.32 | 6.44 | 18.75 |
8 | Wisconsin | B10 | 31 | 23 | 8 | 10.51 | 7.85 | 18.36 |
9 | West Virginia | BE | 33 | 27 | 6 | 8.76 | 9.42 | 18.18 |
10 | Texas | B12 | 33 | 24 | 9 | 10.92 | 7.26 | 18.18 |
11 | Maryland | ACC | 30 | 22 | 8 | 10.54 | 7.49 | 18.03 |
12 | Georgetown DC | BE | 33 | 23 | 10 | 7.60 | 9.66 | 17.26 |
13 | Villanova | BE | 31 | 24 | 7 | 9.23 | 7.86 | 17.09 |
14 | Baylor | B12 | 31 | 24 | 7 | 9.60 | 7.46 | 17.06 |
15 | Missouri | B12 | 32 | 22 | 10 | 10.88 | 6.03 | 16.91 |
16 | Purdue | B10 | 32 | 27 | 5 | 9.54 | 7.25 | 16.79 |
17 | California | P10 | 33 | 23 | 10 | 9.16 | 7.49 | 16.65 |
18 | Clemson | ACC | 31 | 21 | 10 | 8.89 | 7.20 | 16.09 |
19 | Xavier OH | A10 | 32 | 24 | 8 | 10.64 | 5.12 | 15.76 |
20 | Michigan St | B10 | 32 | 24 | 8 | 8.40 | 7.04 | 15.44 |
21 | Minnesota | B10 | 34 | 21 | 13 | 8.17 | 7.14 | 15.31 |
22 | Washington | P10 | 33 | 24 | 9 | 8.90 | 6.36 | 15.26 |
23 | Tennessee | SEC | 33 | 25 | 8 | 8.07 | 7.01 | 15.08 |
24 | Marquette | BE | 33 | 22 | 11 | 8.13 | 6.87 | 15.00 |
25 | Florida St | ACC | 31 | 22 | 9 | 7.76 | 7.10 | 14.87 |
26 | Vanderbilt | SEC | 31 | 23 | 8 | 6.98 | 7.66 | 14.63 |
27 | Texas A&M | B12 | 31 | 22 | 9 | 5.93 | 8.69 | 14.61 |
28 | Utah St | WAC | 33 | 26 | 7 | 12.97 | 1.43 | 14.40 |
29 | Georgia Tech | ACC | 33 | 21 | 12 | 6.00 | 8.19 | 14.19 |
30 | St Mary’s CA | WCC | 30 | 25 | 5 | 12.07 | 1.65 | 13.72 |
31 | Louisville | BE | 32 | 20 | 12 | 5.88 | 7.82 | 13.71 |
32 | Temple | A10 | 34 | 29 | 5 | 8.69 | 4.56 | 13.25 |
33 | Pittsburgh | BE | 32 | 24 | 8 | 5.75 | 7.47 | 13.22 |
34 | Butler | Horz | 32 | 28 | 4 | 9.85 | 3.31 | 13.16 |
35 | UTEP | CUSA | 32 | 26 | 6 | 10.84 | 2.26 | 13.09 |
36 | Arizona St | P10 | 32 | 22 | 10 | 7.31 | 5.58 | 12.89 |
37 | New Mexico | MWC | 33 | 29 | 4 | 8.95 | 3.90 | 12.84 |
38 | Mississippi | SEC | 31 | 21 | 10 | 7.17 | 5.58 | 12.74 |
39 | UNLV | MWC | 32 | 24 | 8 | 8.13 | 4.41 | 12.54 |
40 | Mississippi St | SEC | 34 | 23 | 11 | 7.55 | 4.98 | 12.53 |
41 | Memphis | CUSA | 32 | 23 | 9 | 9.51 | 2.75 | 12.26 |
42 | Notre Dame | BE | 34 | 23 | 11 | 6.03 | 6.22 | 12.25 |
43 | Virginia Tech | ACC | 31 | 23 | 8 | 7.39 | 4.83 | 12.22 |
44 | Gonzaga | WCC | 31 | 25 | 6 | 9.09 | 3.12 | 12.20 |
45 | Old Dominion | CAA | 34 | 26 | 8 | 10.28 | 1.91 | 12.19 |
46 | Oklahoma St | B12 | 32 | 22 | 10 | 5.57 | 6.60 | 12.17 |
47 | Connecticut | BE | 32 | 17 | 15 | 2.81 | 9.13 | 11.94 |
48 | San Diego St | MWC | 31 | 23 | 8 | 7.79 | 4.14 | 11.92 |
49 | Wake Forest | ACC | 29 | 19 | 10 | 4.16 | 7.65 | 11.81 |
50 | Florida | SEC | 33 | 21 | 12 | 5.45 | 6.06 | 11.51 |
51 | Miami FL | ACC | 32 | 19 | 13 | 5.83 | 5.62 | 11.45 |
52 | Dayton | A10 | 32 | 20 | 12 | 6.73 | 4.59 | 11.31 |
53 | Illinois | B10 | 33 | 19 | 14 | 3.01 | 8.25 | 11.26 |
54 | Northern Iowa | MVC | 32 | 28 | 4 | 8.81 | 2.13 | 10.95 |
55 | Seton Hall | BE | 31 | 19 | 12 | 4.72 | 5.84 | 10.56 |
56 | Richmond | A10 | 34 | 26 | 8 | 6.86 | 3.70 | 10.56 |
57 | Va Commonwealth | CAA | 31 | 22 | 9 | 9.26 | 1.24 | 10.50 |
58 | North Carolina | ACC | 32 | 16 | 16 | 2.01 | 8.48 | 10.49 |
59 | Murray St | OVC | 32 | 28 | 4 | 15.28 | -5.15 | 10.13 |
60 | Cincinnati | BE | 33 | 18 | 15 | 1.96 | 7.92 | 9.88 |
61 | Siena | MAAC | 33 | 27 | 6 | 9.97 | -0.37 | 9.60 |
62 | Alabama | SEC | 32 | 17 | 15 | 2.85 | 6.44 | 9.30 |
63 | Michigan | B10 | 31 | 14 | 17 | 0.91 | 8.35 | 9.26 |
64 | Alabama Birmingham | CUSA | 31 | 23 | 8 | 5.97 | 3.28 | 9.25 |
That ranking would yield a bracket of:
1 Kansas |
16 Alabama Birmingham |
8 Temple |
9 Pittsburgh |
5 California |
12 San Diego St |
4 Purdue |
13 Wake Forest |
6 Marquette |
11 Memphis |
3 West Virginia |
14 Richmond |
7 Florida St |
10 Mississippi St |
2 Wisconsin |
15 Va Commonwealth |
1 Kentucky |
16 Siena |
8 Georgia Tech |
9 Arizona St |
5 Michigan St |
12 Old Dominion |
4 Villanova |
13 Dayton |
6 Minnesota |
11 Gonzaga |
3 Georgetown DC |
14 Illinois |
7 Utah St |
10 New Mexico |
2 Brigham Young |
15 Cincinnati |
1 Duke |
16 Michigan |
8 Louisville |
9 Butler |
5 Clemson |
12 Connecticut |
4 Missouri |
13 Florida |
6 Tennessee |
11 Notre Dame |
3 Texas |
14 Seton Hall |
7 Vanderbilt |
10 UNLV |
2 Ohio State |
15 North Carolina |
1 Syracuse |
16 Alabama |
8 St Mary’s CA |
9 UTEP |
5 Xavier OH |
12 Oklahoma St |
4 Baylor |
13 Miami FL |
6 Washington |
11 Virginia Tech |
3 Maryland |
14 Northern Iowa |
7 Texas A&M |
10 Mississippi |
2 Kansas St |
15 Murray St |
Okay, but maybe that’s not fair — I mean, the power conferences own that bracket. What if we granted an automatic bid to each conference’s best team by SRS and gave at-large bids to the next 32 best teams by SRS?
1 Kansas |
16 South Dakota |
8 Temple |
9 Pittsburgh |
5 California |
12 Siena |
4 Purdue |
13 Cornell NY |
6 Marquette |
11 Memphis |
3 West Virginia |
14 Western Kentucky |
7 Florida St |
10 Mississippi St |
2 Wisconsin |
15 Belmont |
1 Kentucky |
16 Quinnipiac |
8 Georgia Tech |
9 Arizona St |
5 Michigan St |
12 Old Dominion |
4 Villanova |
13 Montana |
6 Minnesota |
11 Gonzaga |
3 Georgetown DC |
14 Sam Houston St |
7 Utah St |
10 New Mexico |
2 Brigham Young |
15 Coastal Carolina |
1 Duke |
16 Arkansas Pine Bluff |
8 Louisville |
9 Butler |
5 Clemson |
12 Murray St |
4 Missouri |
13 Kent St |
6 Tennessee |
11 Notre Dame |
3 Texas |
14 IUPUI |
7 Vanderbilt |
10 UNLV |
2 Ohio State |
15 Boston U |
1 Syracuse |
16 Lehigh |
8 St Mary’s CA |
9 UTEP |
5 Xavier OH |
12 Northern Iowa |
4 Baylor |
13 Wofford |
6 Washington |
11 Virginia Tech |
3 Maryland |
14 Pacific CA |
7 Texas A&M |
10 Mississippi |
2 Kansas St |
15 Morgan St |
That looks more equitable, but what if we felt using the point differential-based SRS was wrong because it encourages teams to run up the score on their opponents? Well, we can also rank the teams by their BBR ranking:
Rank | Team | Conf | G | W | L | BBRrk |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Kansas | B12 | 34 | 32 | 2 | 16.38 |
2 | West Virginia | BE | 33 | 27 | 6 | 15.61 |
3 | Duke | ACC | 34 | 29 | 5 | 15.50 |
4 | Kansas St | B12 | 32 | 25 | 7 | 14.74 |
5 | Kentucky | SEC | 34 | 32 | 2 | 14.68 |
6 | Syracuse | BE | 32 | 28 | 4 | 14.03 |
7 | Purdue | B10 | 32 | 27 | 5 | 13.74 |
8 | Georgetown DC | BE | 33 | 23 | 10 | 13.23 |
9 | Villanova | BE | 31 | 24 | 7 | 13.11 |
10 | Baylor | B12 | 31 | 24 | 7 | 12.59 |
11 | Texas A&M | B12 | 31 | 22 | 9 | 12.48 |
12 | Wisconsin | B10 | 31 | 23 | 8 | 12.09 |
13 | Vanderbilt | SEC | 31 | 23 | 8 | 12.01 |
14 | Ohio State | B10 | 34 | 27 | 7 | 11.83 |
15 | Temple | A10 | 34 | 29 | 5 | 11.78 |
16 | Tennessee | SEC | 33 | 25 | 8 | 11.73 |
17 | Michigan St | B10 | 32 | 24 | 8 | 11.69 |
18 | Pittsburgh | BE | 32 | 24 | 8 | 11.69 |
19 | Maryland | ACC | 30 | 22 | 8 | 11.64 |
20 | Texas | B12 | 33 | 24 | 9 | 11.35 |
21 | California | P10 | 33 | 23 | 10 | 11.16 |
22 | New Mexico | MWC | 33 | 29 | 4 | 11.13 |
23 | Florida St | ACC | 31 | 22 | 9 | 10.90 |
24 | Butler | Horz | 32 | 28 | 4 | 10.88 |
25 | Georgia Tech | ACC | 33 | 21 | 12 | 10.60 |
26 | Wake Forest | ACC | 29 | 19 | 10 | 10.52 |
27 | Clemson | ACC | 31 | 21 | 10 | 10.33 |
28 | Washington | P10 | 33 | 24 | 9 | 10.14 |
29 | Xavier OH | A10 | 32 | 24 | 8 | 9.98 |
30 | Oklahoma St | B12 | 32 | 22 | 10 | 9.85 |
31 | Brigham Young | MWC | 33 | 28 | 5 | 9.75 |
32 | Marquette | BE | 33 | 22 | 11 | 9.71 |
33 | Northern Iowa | MVC | 32 | 28 | 4 | 9.70 |
34 | Louisville | BE | 32 | 20 | 12 | 9.55 |
35 | San Diego St | MWC | 31 | 23 | 8 | 9.49 |
36 | Virginia Tech | ACC | 31 | 23 | 8 | 9.40 |
37 | South Florida | BE | 32 | 20 | 12 | 9.22 |
38 | Illinois | B10 | 33 | 19 | 14 | 9.19 |
39 | Missouri | B12 | 32 | 22 | 10 | 9.05 |
40 | Connecticut | BE | 32 | 17 | 15 | 9.03 |
41 | Richmond | A10 | 34 | 26 | 8 | 9.00 |
42 | UNLV | MWC | 32 | 24 | 8 | 8.96 |
43 | Gonzaga | WCC | 31 | 25 | 6 | 8.92 |
44 | Minnesota | B10 | 34 | 21 | 13 | 8.87 |
45 | Notre Dame | BE | 34 | 23 | 11 | 8.77 |
46 | Mississippi | SEC | 31 | 21 | 10 | 8.59 |
47 | Arizona St | P10 | 32 | 22 | 10 | 8.50 |
48 | Cincinnati | BE | 33 | 18 | 15 | 8.34 |
49 | Texas Tech | B12 | 32 | 17 | 15 | 8.29 |
50 | Florida | SEC | 33 | 21 | 12 | 8.16 |
51 | Mississippi St | SEC | 34 | 23 | 11 | 8.14 |
52 | St Mary’s CA | WCC | 30 | 25 | 5 | 8.11 |
53 | Alabama Birmingham | CUSA | 31 | 23 | 8 | 8.09 |
54 | UTEP | CUSA | 32 | 26 | 6 | 7.99 |
55 | Arizona | P10 | 31 | 16 | 15 | 7.76 |
56 | Rhode Island | A10 | 32 | 23 | 9 | 7.65 |
57 | North Carolina | ACC | 32 | 16 | 16 | 7.61 |
58 | St John’s NY | BE | 32 | 17 | 15 | 7.59 |
59 | Seton Hall | BE | 31 | 19 | 12 | 7.52 |
60 | North Carolina St | ACC | 34 | 19 | 15 | 7.51 |
61 | Old Dominion | CAA | 34 | 26 | 8 | 7.30 |
62 | Miami FL | ACC | 32 | 19 | 13 | 7.03 |
63 | Utah St | WAC | 33 | 26 | 7 | 6.99 |
64 | Michigan | B10 | 31 | 14 | 17 | 6.90 |
Now we get this bracket:
1 Kansas |
16 Michigan |
8 Marquette |
9 Northern Iowa |
5 Michigan St |
12 Cincinnati |
4 Tennessee |
13 Texas Tech |
6 Butler |
11 Richmond |
3 Villanova |
14 Rhode Island |
7 Georgia Tech |
10 Connecticut |
2 Georgetown DC |
15 North Carolina |
1 Kansas St |
16 Old Dominion |
8 Xavier OH |
9 Virginia Tech |
5 Texas |
12 Notre Dame |
4 Vanderbilt |
13 St Mary’s CA |
6 California |
11 Minnesota |
3 Wisconsin |
14 Alabama Birmingham |
7 Washington |
10 South Florida |
2 Kentucky |
15 North Carolina St |
1 West Virginia |
16 Utah St |
8 Brigham Young |
9 Louisville |
5 Pittsburgh |
12 Arizona St |
4 Temple |
13 Florida |
6 Florida St |
11 UNLV |
3 Baylor |
14 Arizona |
7 Wake Forest |
10 Missouri |
2 Purdue |
15 St John’s NY |
1 Duke |
16 Miami FL |
8 Oklahoma St |
9 San Diego St |
5 Maryland |
12 Mississippi |
4 Ohio State |
13 Mississippi St |
6 New Mexico |
11 Gonzaga |
3 Texas A&M |
14 UTEP |
7 Clemson |
10 Illinois |
2 Syracuse |
15 Seton Hall |
Again, though, it’s dominated by the big conferences because they get massive SOS adjustments; just look at Michigan, who went 14-17 vs. D-I competition but gets into this bracket because their SOS was one of the nation’s best. Nothing against Michigan, but if we again reward each conference’s best team by SRS with an automatic bid, teams with bad records but SOS boosts (like the Wolverines) will drop out:
1 Kansas |
16 South Dakota |
8 Marquette |
9 Northern Iowa |
5 Michigan St |
12 Cornell NY |
4 Tennessee |
13 Kent St |
6 Butler |
11 Richmond |
3 Villanova |
14 Western Kentucky |
7 Georgia Tech |
10 Connecticut |
2 Georgetown DC |
15 Jacksonville FL |
1 Kansas St |
16 Coastal Carolina |
8 Xavier OH |
9 Virginia Tech |
5 Texas |
12 Old Dominion |
4 Vanderbilt |
13 UC Santa Barbara |
6 California |
11 Alabama Birmingham |
3 Wisconsin |
14 Murray St |
7 Washington |
10 South Florida |
2 Kentucky |
15 Robert Morris PA |
1 West Virginia |
16 Arkansas Pine Bluff |
8 Brigham Young |
9 Louisville |
5 Pittsburgh |
12 Siena |
4 Temple |
13 Oakland |
6 Florida St |
11 UNLV |
3 Baylor |
14 Sam Houston St |
7 Wake Forest |
10 Missouri |
2 Purdue |
15 Morgan St |
1 Duke |
16 Lehigh |
8 Oklahoma St |
9 San Diego St |
5 Maryland |
12 Utah St |
4 Ohio State |
13 Wofford |
6 New Mexico |
11 Gonzaga |
3 Texas A&M |
14 Weber St |
7 Clemson |
10 Illinois |
2 Syracuse |
15 Boston U |
The only question now is, which bracket do you like best, the committee’s or one of the four above? Which one is the fairest? Which one do you think would produce the “truest” national champion?
March 24th, 2010 at 6:13 am
I Think there are two questions about these brackets.
First: The national champion is the best team and doesn’t matter if the college rankend on the lower seed of brackets are worthy of the ncaa tournament or not, almost every year is a top ten ranking team to won.
Second: If we want just the best teams in ncaa tournament, why having a 300+ Division I, cut the DI to just 100+ teams and the problems is solved, the number of team is intended to represent all country and its fair that the champions of small conferences play the ncaa tournament, because everyone is proud of his conference title. Don’t forget that execpt for a few special that fight for a “final four” or a “sweet sixteen”, a conference title is very important, and by doing those brackets its meaningless.
March 29th, 2010 at 11:37 pm
In a single-elimination, 64-team field, I think it’s pretty obvious that the National Champion is rarely the “best team” in the country. The most accomplished? Can’t argue there, they won all the games they needed to… But not necessarily the “best”.
December 1st, 2011 at 10:07 pm
tzwqccpwpdhzmRaiawqxitRYilbodxe