Sports Reference Blog

2016 Player Projections Added to Baseball Reference

Posted by Mike Lynch on October 21, 2015

You may have noticed a recent addition to our player pages: an italicized stat line for 2016. These are projections for 2016, which were generated using the Marcel the Monkey Forecasting System.

The Marcel projection system was originally developed by Tom Tango as the "minimum level of competence that you should expect from any forecaster." Let's let him describe it:

Actually, it is the most basic forecasting system you can have, that uses as little intelligence as possible. So, that's the allusion to the monkey. It uses 3 years of MLB data, with the most recent data weighted heavier. It regresses towards the mean. And it has an age factor.

I do not stand behind these forecasts. Consider me only a trustee of the system. For me to stand behind a forecasting system, I'd have to spend a multitude of hours to get it right. And, the difference between doing it right, and doing it with the Marcels.... well, I'd rather continue spending my time working on other baseball research.

More details on Tango's system are available here:

Please Note: Tom Tango has not certified, reviewed, or confirmed any of the projections on this site. Any descrepencies from data published elsewhere are solely the responsibility of Sports Reference.

In order to generate these projections, we have used code published by Jeff Sackmann as a reference for our implementation. Jeff has also not certified or confirmed any of the resulting projections.

Posted in Announcement,, Data | 4 Comments »

Time on Ice & Shift Details Added to Hockey Reference

Posted by Mike Lynch on October 20, 2015

We just wanted to quickly note that we have added new tables of information to the bottom of team pages and also to the seasonal skater registers back to 2007-08.

These tables show average shift length for every player, and also breakdowns of time and performance at even strength, on the power play and shorthanded.

These new tables allow users to dig up the following info, among other things:

We hope you enjoy this new information. If you have any comments or questions, please reach out to us here.


Posted in Advanced Stats, Announcement, Data, | Comments Off on Time on Ice & Shift Details Added to Hockey Reference

Fantasy Points & Touches Added to Player Streak Finder

Posted by Mike Lynch on October 16, 2015

Pro Football Reference has added Fantasy Points and Touches as search criteria in the Player Streak Finder. These additions allow users to search for the most impressive streaks of fantasy dominance and/or high usage since 1960 (the first season for which we have full player game logs for skill positions). We'd like to thank our friend Scott Pianowski for passing along this suggested addition.

The standard Fantasy Points are calculated as:

Passing Yards: 1 point per 25 yards passing
Passing Touchdowns: 4 points
Interceptions: -2 points
Rushing Yards: 1 point per 10 yards
Rushing Touchdowns: 6 points
Receiving Yards: 1 point per 10 yards
Receiving Touchdowns: 6 points
Fumble Recovered for a Touchdown: 6 points
2-Point Conversions: 2 points
Fumbles Lost: -2 points

For DFS players, DraftKings Points and FanDuel Points are also available as sorting options.

Touches are calculated by adding up rush attempts, receptions, kickoff returns & punt returns.

These new additions allow users to get some perspective on the dominant fantasy streak Devonta Freeman is on. Thursday's game was his fourth straight with 25+ Fantasy Points. That makes him the first RB to do that since LaDainian Tomlinson, who had an eight-game streak in 2006.

Or if you search for streaks with 35+ DraftKings Points (which rewards a point per reception), you can see that Freeman has matched a record, becoming just the third player since 1960 with 35+ DraftKings Points in four straight games (and yes, we acknowledge this is an anachronism since DraftKings didn't exist the last time this happened, but this shows just how rare Freeman's performance streak is).

Rushing Receiving
Tm Count Att Yds TD Rec Yds TD DKPt From To
Devonta Freeman ATL 4* 84 462 8 25 233 1 157.5 Sep 27, 2015 Oct 15, 2015 See all games »
LaDainian Tomlinson SDG 4 85 564 12 15 205 2 187.9 Oct 29, 2006 Nov 19, 2006 See all games »
Larry Johnson KAN 4 115 642 9 11 114 1 158.6 Dec 11, 2005 Jan 1, 2006 See all games »
Provided by View Original Table
Generated 10/16/2015.

Similarly, Freeman has tied the record for consecutive games with 29+ FanDuel Points.

Finally, with Touches added to the streak finder, you can now search for things like the longest streaks of games with 15+ touches this season.

We hope you enjoy these new features and, as always, please let us know if you have any comments or questions.

Posted in Announcement, Data, Fantasy, Features, Play Index, | Comments Off on Fantasy Points & Touches Added to Player Streak Finder

2015-16 Simple Projection System Projections Are Live

Posted by Jonah Gardner on October 14, 2015

It's hard to believe, but we're under 2 weeks away from the start of the NBA season. That means it's also time to unveil the SPS projections for 2015-16!

What is Simple Projection System? Simply put, SPS is a very basic method for projecting basketball stats. SPS weighs the last 3 seasons by a factor of 6/3/1 and factors age and a little regression to the mean to project what a player will do in the upcoming season (you can read a more detailed explanation of how it's calculated on this page). If this rings a bell, it may be because you're a baseball fan who is familiar with Tom Tango's Marcel projection system. This quote from Tango pretty succinctly describes his projection system's raison d'etre (and why it's called "Marcel"):

"[I]t is the most basic forecasting system you can have, that uses as little intelligence as possible. So, that's the allusion to the monkey."

SPS applies the same general principles to basketball, though the name has no connection to a 1990s sitcom. As the name would suggest, SPS' calculation is relatively simple, but it also does a pretty decent job and holds its own, even compared to more sophisticated projection systems. Of course, SPS can't take into account contextual changes such as a player moving to a new team, changing coaches, or getting new teammates, but it's a fun starting point as we gear up for another NBA season. It's also important to note that SPS' numbers are per 36 minutes.

So, without further ado, here's who SPS projects to lead the NBA in points per 36 minutes:

Per 36 Minutes
Rk Player PTS ?
1 Kevin Durant 27.8
2 Russell Westbrook 27.4
3 James Harden 25.6
4 LeBron James 24.9
5 Carmelo Anthony 24.7
6 DeMarcus Cousins 24.6
7 Stephen Curry 24.6
8 Anthony Davis 23.0
9 LaMarcus Aldridge 22.8
10 Blake Griffin 22.7
Provided by View Original Table
Generated 10/14/2015.


SPS is looking at strong bounceback seasons for KD and Carmelo, while expecting James Harden to outscore Stephen Curry again. Here's the rebound leaders, where SPS projects big things for Hassan Whiteside following his 2014-15 breakout:

Per 36 Minutes
Rk Player Type TRB ?
1 Andre Drummond Projected 15.4
2 DeAndre Jordan Projected 14.5
3 Hassan Whiteside Projected 14.2
4 Reggie Evans Projected 13.4
5 Omer Asik Projected 13.3
6 DeMarcus Cousins Projected 12.9
7 Rudy Gobert Projected 12.7
8 Tyson Chandler Projected 12.5
9 Thomas Robinson Projected 12.5
10 Dwight Howard Projected 12.4
Provided by View Original Table
Generated 10/14/2015.


Finally, here are the projected leaders in assists per 36 minutes:

Per 36 Minutes
Rk Player AST ?
1 Chris Paul 10.3
2 Rajon Rondo 9.5
3 John Wall 9.4
4 Ricky Rubio 9.3
5 Ty Lawson 9.0
6 Kendall Marshall 9.0
7 Russell Westbrook 8.4
8 Stephen Curry 8.1
9 Jeff Teague 7.8
10 Brandon Jennings 7.7
Provided by View Original Table
Generated 10/14/2015.


If you're anything like me, you were probably surprised to see Kendall Marshall there, but his per 36 assist numbers have been crazy good for the last 3 seasons.

In case you're curious about how SPS has done in the past, we have tables for SPS going back to 1980-81 showing what the projections would be and how they'd compare to the actual results. For example, here's how the projections for last season's two MVP frontrunners, Stephen Curry and James Harden, compared to their actual 2014-15 numbers. Some things, like Harden's 3-pt % or Steph's turnovers, it got almost exactly right. Other stats, like both players' field goal attempts, were a little further off:

Per 36 Minutes Shooting
Stephen Curry Projected 8.0 17.0 3.2 7.4 3.6 4.1 0.7 4.2 7.6 1.6 3.4 22.7 .469 .437 .886
Stephen Curry Actual 9.0 18.5 3.9 8.9 4.2 4.6 0.8 4.7 8.5 2.2 3.4 26.2 .487 .443 .914
James Harden Projected 7.0 15.4 2.2 5.9 7.5 8.7 0.8 4.6 5.6 1.5 3.3 23.8 .457 .374 .861
James Harden Actual 7.8 17.8 2.5 6.7 8.6 10.0 0.9 5.5 6.8 1.9 3.9 26.8 .440 .375 .868
Provided by View Original Table
Generated 10/14/2015.


And here are the SPS projections for Michael Jordan's last season with the Bulls, just because:

Per 36 Minutes Shooting
350 Michael Jordan Projected 10.3 21.5 1.2 3.3 5.7 6.8 1.4 5.8 4.0 1.7 2.1 27.6 .481 .384 .828
351 Michael Jordan Actual 10.0 21.4 0.3 1.4 6.4 8.2 1.5 5.4 3.2 1.6 2.1 26.7 .465 .238 .784
Provided by View Original Table
Generated 10/14/2015.


You can also see a player's 2015-16 projections at the top of their player page. Here's Carmelo Anthony's:

Per 36 Minutes Shooting
8.9 19.9 1.8 4.8 5.1 6.2 1.8 7.0 2.9 1.0 0.5 2.4 2.6 24.7 .445 .371 .822 .139
Provided by View Original Table
Generated 10/14/2015.


While you're getting ready for the season, don't forget that we also have the full preseason schedule with box scores, an updated free agent tracker with all of this summer's big and small player moves, a detailed injury report, and of course the most comprehensive basketball stats database on the web!

Posted in Announcement,, Statgeekery | Comments Off on 2015-16 Simple Projection System Projections Are Live

Find Liga ACB Statistics Back to 1983-84 on Basketball Reference

Posted by Mike Lynch on October 13, 2015

With the 2015-16 Liga ACB basketball season is underway in Spain, we'd like to make a couple of announcements.

First of all, you can find box scores, standings, player and team stats at our Liga ACB landing page. As you'll see, Barcelona's Ante Tomic got off to a hot start with 23 points on 10-for-11 shooting in a win over Zaragoza. Tomic was drafted by the Jazz in 2008 and they still retain his NBA rights. You can check out some of the other top players in this table with sortable stats for every player in the league. Don't forget to bookmark this page to keep up with perhaps the world's premier basketball league outside of the NBA all season long.

Our other big announcement is that we have added statistics for past Liga ACB seasons all the way back to 1983-84, which was the first season in the modern history of the league. This means we now have awesome things like vintage Arvydas Sabonis stats:



This addition also gives us statistics for Drazen Petrovic's season in Spain, the year before he started his NBA career in Portland. That year, he set a still-standing league record with 1,026 points in the regular season. You can access all sorts of leaderboards for various Euro leagues via this link. Among the cool nuggets you can uncover is the fact that the legendary Oscar Schmidt still owns the league record for three-pointers made in a single regular season with 160, with one of the most energetic players in NBA history coming in second on the list.

We hope you enjoy this addition to our site. College basketball fans will likely enjoy seeing statistics for college stars they had lost track of after they disappeared from the NBA. Now that these new pages have been created, we will continually be working on linking them up with already existing NBA pages for players who played in both leagues and/or have pages on our college site.

Posted in Announcement,, Data, Features, History | Comments Off on Find Liga ACB Statistics Back to 1983-84 on Basketball Reference

Introducing NHL Expected +/-

Posted by Mike Lynch on October 7, 2015

Hockey Reference is excited to introduce a new advanced hockey statistic we're calling Expected +/-. This new metric, utilizing league-wide shot location data, shows what we'd expect a player's +/- to be, based on where his team's shots and his opponent's shots came from while we has on the ice in even strength situations. The expected value of these shots is based upon league-wide shooting percentages from the various locations.

We have calculated the statistic for 2014-15 thus far, and will be calculating it for seasons moving forward, as well. As we get more shot location data, these values will eventually be based on three-year rolling averages, but as of now, 2014-15 is based entirely upon 2014-15 shot location data. When we say three-year rolling averages, what we mean is that, eventually, 2015-16 Expected +/- will be based upon shooting percentages from various locations on the ice from 2014-15 to 2016-17.

Here's the 2014-15 leaders:

Rk Player Age Tm Pos GP E+/- ?
1 Patrice Bergeron 29 BOS C 81 21.5
2 Nick Leddy 23 NYI D 78 19.6
3 Anders Lee 24 NYI C 76 19.6
4 John Tavares 24 NYI C 82 19.6
5 Anton Stralman 28 TBL D 82 17.6
6 Ryan Strome 21 NYI C 81 17.5
7 Nikita Kucherov 21 TBL RW 82 17.2
8 Brad Marchand 26 BOS LW 77 17.1
9 Brock Nelson 23 NYI C 82 17.1
10 Joe Thornton 35 SJS C 78 17.1
Provided by View Original Table
Generated 10/7/2015.

As you can see, the Expected +/- leaderboard differs quite a bit from the actual +/- leaderboard, with only Nikita Kucherov appearing in the top ten of both. Expected +/- can potentially help identify some of the luck factor in raw +/- numbers:

Rk Player Age Tm Pos GP +/- ?
1 Nikita Kucherov 21 TBL RW 82 38
2 Max Pacioretty 26 MTL LW 80 38
3 Tyler Johnson 24 TBL C 77 33
4 Ondrej Palat 23 TBL LW 75 31
5 Jonathan Toews 26 CHI C 81 30
6 Rick Nash 30 NYR LW 79 29
7 Jason Garrison 30 TBL D 70 27
8 Vladimir Tarasenko 23 STL RW 77 27
9 Derek Stepan 24 NYR C 68 26
10 Blake Wheeler 28 WPG RW 79 26
Provided by View Original Table
Generated 10/7/2015.

Since this metric considers the quality of shots (or at least their point of origin), it has an advantage over blunter instruments, like Corsi, which consider quantity, but not quality. However, unlike Corsi, Expected +/- does not include info on shots that weren't on goal, that were blocked, etc. So we see the stats as good complements for each other.

Currently, Expected +/- can be found for all players on the advanced tab of the 2014-15 Skaters register. Additionally, it can found in the Miscellaneous table on player pages.

On a game level, we have added shot charts to our box scores, as well. In the future, we plan to add heat maps showing shooting percentages by location for players, goalies, teams and league seasons. We will also be incorporating Expected +/- into our Player Advanced Stats Finder to allow for customized searches on this metric.

Finally, we would like to thank Wesley Yue for his valuable contributions to this concept.

Posted in Advanced Stats, Announcement, Data, | Comments Off on Introducing NHL Expected +/-

NFL Players of the Week Added to Pro Football Reference

Posted by Mike Lynch on September 18, 2015

We've made a recent addition to Pro Football Reference: NFL Players of the Week back to 1997. This data can be accessed from our NFL/AFL Awards Index. The winners each week include an offensive, defensive and special teams player from each conference. Additionally, these winners have been added to the pages we have recapping each week in the NFL. Finally, a summary of all of these awards has been added to player pages underneath that stat tables, so you can see a list of all of the Player of the Week Awards for LaDainian Tomlinson (or any other player):

Screen Shot 2015-09-18 at 10.36.57 AM

It should come as no surprise that Peyton Manning is the leader in Player of the Week Awards since 1997, with 27. Next is Tom Brady, with 24, followed by Drew Brees, with 20.

As we find time for additional research in our collection of old NFL Record & Fact Books, we hope to go back beyond 1997 with this data. Or, if you have this data and care to share it with us, please let us know.

Posted in Announcement, Awards, Data, History, | 1 Comment »

Michael Jordan high school, amateur, and exhibition game logs

Posted by David Corby on September 15, 2015


We recently published the game logs for Michael Jordan's high school, amateur, and NBA career, with every exhibition and charity game along the way.

This awesome feature is the product of research by author and hoops maven Todd Spehr (@toddspehr35). Todd had previously donated a decade of NBA All-Star Legends Game box scores to our site. Most recently, he is the author of Drazen: The Remarkable Life and Legacy of the Mozart of Basketball.

The records begin with Jordan's 1978-79 Junior Varsity effort with Wilmington, North Carolina's Laney High School, then continues with his varsity career and high-school showcase games like the McDonald's All-American game. Along the way, it includes every game of his UNC career, and every pre-season and international effort, including his Dream Team performances, and much much more. It really is an awesome effort, so we've included a permanent link at the top of our main Jordan page so that it's always easy to find.



Posted in Announcement,, CBB at Sports Reference | 1 Comment »

Find 2015 NFL Stats

Posted by Mike Lynch on September 10, 2015

The Play Index is the name we use to refer to PFR's collection of top-notch research tools. Read below for more information on some of the applications we have made available to you.
Game Play Finder

Search all plays from 1994 to today to find performances that match your criteria. Answer questions like…

Player Season Finder

Search through player season stats spanning from 1920 to today for single seasons or combined seasons that match your criteria. Answer questions like…

The answers to these questions and many, many more are at your fingertips using the Player Season Finder.

Player Game Finder

Search through player game logs spanning from 1960 to today for games that match your criteria. You can find…

With the Player Game Finder, the possibilities are almost endless.

Player Comparison Tool

Select up to six offensive skill position players to compare single season stats, career stats, or a span of years. Compare…

Trade Finder Tool

Find NFL trades from 1994 to now, by team, draft round, draft pick, player position and more. Find…

Player Touchdown Finder

Search through every touchdown scored from 1920 to today for scores that match your criteria. Did you know…

Impress your friends and come up with your own "Did You Know" with a little help from the Player Touchdown Finder.

Team Game Finder

Find team games or seasons matching certain criteria. Did you know…

Player Streak Finder

Find the longest player streaks matching certain criteria. Did you know...

Team Streak Finder

Find the longest team streaks matching certain criteria. Did you know...

Super Bowl Play Finder

Search through every play in Super Bowl History.

Draft Finder

Search through every NFL and AFL draft pick.
Boxscore Search Tools

Find head-to-head results and also find games matching a particular score.

Posted in Announcement, Data, Features, Play Index, | 2 Comments »

4 Matchups That Will Decide the 2015 NFL

Posted by Jonah Gardner on September 10, 2015

There will be 256 regular season games in the NFL this year and within each of those games, there are countless matchups. However, some matchups matter more than others. It's not likely that the AFC champion will be decided by how Tennessee's secondary contains Jacksonville's WR, for example. With that in mind, here are 4 matchups that could end up deciding this year's Super Bowl champions. Read the rest of this entry

Posted in, Stat Questions, Super Bowl | Comments Off on 4 Matchups That Will Decide the 2015 NFL