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Introducing the PFR HOF Monitor

19th December 2019

Baseball-Reference tracks various Hall of Fame predictor statistics such as Bill James' Hall of Fame Monitor and Jay Jaffe's WAR Score System. Basketball Reference also has a Hall of Fame Probability formula that we display on player pages and gives people a brief glance at where players stand based on their statistical case.

With the Pro Football Hall of Fame class of 2020 being debated this winter, we figured it was time to work up a Hall of Fame predicting formula for the NFL. We have devised a new HOF Monitor metric that we are deploying for Pro Football Reference beginning today! Here's a link to the quarterback HOF Monitor page, which also includes links to the other positions. Links to these tables will also appear under the Leaderboards and Awards section of player pages.

The base formula uses weighted Approximate Value (which is 100% of the player's peak year, 95% of their second-best year, 90% of their third-best, and so on) as a starting point. Bonuses are added for Pro Football Hall of Fame All-Decade selections, MVP awards, Defensive Player of the Year awards, first-team AP All-Pro selections, Super Bowls/titles, and Pro Bowls, in descending weights.

In addition, bonuses are added if a player has earned first-team All-Pro in over 33% of their seasons. This reflects the reputation boost afforded to players who led the league in short careers like Gale Sayers and Terrell Davis. For players not yet inducted, small bonuses are also added for semi-finalist and finalist appearances on previous HOF ballots, since that indicates that they've already been seriously considered.

On top of the base formula, there are statistical bonuses given depending on the position. For quarterbacks, wide receivers and tight ends there are different thresholds depending on the era they played in so as to narrow the gap between the depressed passing stats before 1980 and the explosion after that. For the full methodology, check out our PFR HOF Monitor explainer page here.

Similar to JAWS, a score of 100 is around the average modern-era HOF inductee for each position. All eligible players with a score over 120 got into the Hall of Fame fairly quickly, save for a few exceptions such as Willie Wood. A score of 150 would be a first ballot lock (sole exception of Alan Page who had to wait a year).

A score of 80 or above means they're a good candidate to eventually get in, or they’re the highest-profile borderline candidates. The absolute lowest score for HOF inductees would be 40, although most of these lower scoring Hall of Famers are courtesy of senior committee selections.

To get a sense of what absolute HOF locks look like in this system, here's a look at the highest HOFm scores:

Player Pos HOFm
Jerry Rice WR 311.81
Peyton Manning QB 258.00
Reggie White DE 238.23
Tom Brady QB 225.94
Lawrence Taylor OLB 215.68
Walter Payton RB 214.91
Bruce Smith DE 211.35
Ray Lewis ILB 197.85
Tony Gonzalez TE 196.33
Jim Brown RB 190.29

As for the Centennial Class of 2020, here's how the HOF Monitor judged the modern-era semifinalists on the ballot, with this year's inductees marked with an asterisk:

Player Pos HOFm
Alan Faneca G 141.93
Steve Hutchinson* G 118.53
Zach Thomas ILB 112.20
Reggie Wayne WR 107.01
Torry Holt WR 104.27
Isaac Bruce* WR 99.81
Edgerrin James* RB 99.58
Richard Seymour DE 96.65
Troy Polamalu* DB 95.73
Patrick Willis ILB 89.60
Leroy Butler DB 89.28
Steve Atwater* DB 85.13
Tony Boselli T 84.83
Ronde Barber DB 83.58
Hines Ward WR 72.90
John Lynch DB 71.30
Bryant Young DT 65.43
Ricky Watters RB 64.77
Darren Woodson DB 60.53
Sam Mills ILB 57.33
Simeon Rice DE 53.35
Clay Matthews OLB 52.30
Fred Taylor RB 52.13
Carl Banks OLB 51.50
Steve Tasker WR/ST 14.88

We want to stress that this is especially meant to judge a player's chances of getting into the Pro Football Hall of Fame and not necessarily for "who is the best middle linebacker" debates. Many analysts agree that championships won reveal little to nothing about a player's individual skill, but it's certainly a factor that's taken into consideration by Hall of Fame voters. With that caveat out of the way, we're eager to hear feedback on the formula. Particularly, if you're interested in testing out your own tweaks, feel free to reach out to us via our feedback form and we can share the player data used to test out this system.

Posted in Announcement, Awards, Features, General, Hall of Fame, History, Pro-Football-Reference.com | 2 Comments »

Advanced Passing Revamp At PFR

20th November 2019

Earlier this season we announced our partnership with Sportradar to bring advanced offensive statistics to Pro Football Reference. We are happy to announce that for the 2019 season and beyond, we have now added additional advanced passing statistics to help provide context and key breakdowns for the quarterbacks around the league.

We can use MVP candidate Lamar Jackson as an example of the new statistics provided in the Advanced Passing table of quarterback pages. In the Accuracy tab, you'll now see batted passes and spikes in addition to previously added stats such as throwaways and bad throws. We also show passes on target and on target percentage, which ignores spikes and throwaways. Jackson has a 75.4 on target percentage in 2019.

In the Pressure tab of the Advanced Passing table, in addition to previously provided stats such as times blitzed, times hit, and scrambles, we also have pocket time for 2019. Jackson in 2019 has had on average 2.6 seconds in the pocket between the snap and throwing the ball or pressure collapsing the pocket.

In the Play Type tab of the Advanced Passing table, we provide breakdowns for run-pass option plays and play-action situations. Jackson has run 106 RPO plays this season, passing on 51 and rushing on his own for 52 of them. Jackson has run 87 play-action plays, throwing for 559 yards on those plays.

Finally, we already provided air yards information, but in order to paint a more complete picture we are now showing both intended air yards, which includes all pass attempts, and completed air yards. That information is displayed in the dedicated Air Yards tab of the Advanced Passing table.

In addition to displaying this information at the individual level, we have also implemented this tabbed approach on the team advanced stats page. As a team, the Saints lead the league in on target percentage at 81.9%. In terms of pocket time, the Chargers, Chiefs and Bengals trail with just an average of 2.2 seconds. Unsurprisingly, the Ravens and Cardinals have both run over 150 RPO plays, while no other team has even 100.

If you have any questions or suggestions, feel free to contact us through our feedback form or Pro Football Reference's official Twitter account. Thanks for following PFR!

Posted in Advanced Stats, Announcement, Data, Features, Pro-Football-Reference.com | Comments Off on Advanced Passing Revamp At PFR

xG, Passing, Plus/Minus, and More Stats Added to FBref

19th November 2019

As part of our partnership with StatsBomb, FBref has made more advanced statistics available for players in the major international leagues. We launched expected goals data a couple of weeks ago, and you can read more in depth about the process that goes into calculating those figures at our xG explainer page.

A more recent big addition to the advanced stats we carry is a new Passing table, which tracks total number of passes attempted and completed, as well as a breakdown by pass distance. Other passing information includes key passes (passes that directly lead to a shot attempt), breakdown of left-footed and right-footed passes, through balls, and passes that enter the third of the pitch closest to the goal. In the 2018-19 UEFA Champions League, among players with at least 150 long pass attempts (25+ yards), only Sergio Busquets of Barcelona and Manuel Akanji successfully completed 90% of their long passes.

A new Playing Time table includes basic stats such as minutes per match as well as breakdowns by starts and substitutions. For seasons where we have match reports, we are also able to display points earned in standings per match played, goals scored and allowed by team while the player is on the pitch, and a plus/minus stat using that information. For example, in the 2018-19 English Premier League, Virgil van Dijk and Aymeric Laporte were tied for the league lead among non-goalkeepers in plus/minus, with their teams scoring 67 more goals than their opponents when they were on the pitch.

We have also added a Miscellaneous table that provides season-level statistics we were already providing in match reports such as fouls committed and drawn, offsides, crosses, tackles and interceptions. In 2019 Major League Soccer, Jorge Moreira of Portland led the league with 69 tackles. Zlatan Ibrahimović led the league in offsides committed, 15 more than 2nd place Sam Johnson.

You can keep up with the latest additions of competitions coverage and new features here on the Sports Reference Blog, or by signing up for the This Week in Sports Reference mailing list. Feel free to send us any questions or suggestions through our feedback form or FBref's official Twitter account.

Posted in Advanced Stats, Announcement, Data, FBref, Features | 2 Comments »

Coaching History Added For All Head Coaches in NFL History

18th November 2019

With 6 new debuts this season, there have now been exactly 500 people in NFL history to be credited as head coach of a NFL team. Many of those coaches had to work their way up the ranks or prove their success elsewhere before getting their chance at the top position in the NFL. For a while, Pro-Football-Reference had full coaching history on the pages of modern coaches such as Bill Belichick, so you could trace his rise from a special assistant on the 1975 Colts to where he is today. However, we did not include that information for many historical coach profiles until now, as we have now filled in the coaching history of every head coach in NFL history where applicable.

While in today's environment it's more common to hire a coach with NFL assistant experience over a college coach, in the past many great coaches jumped directly from college to the NFL. Paul Brown rose from nearly a decade coaching at Massillon Washington High School to three years at Ohio State, and following two years coaching the Naval Station Great Lakes team got the call to coach the nascent Cleveland franchise. Sid Gillman was a head coach at Miami of Ohio and Cincinnati before getting his first NFL head coaching spot with the Los Angeles Rams.

The addition of this information also helps fill out NFL coaching trees, as displayed by the Employed and Employed By tables on our coach pages. Looking at Brown's Employed table, he employed future Hall of Fame coaches Weeb Ewbank (as a tackles coach) and Bill Walsh (as a QB and WR coach). A common narrative today is how the assistants of Bill Belichick have not gone on to solid head coaching careers, and similar things were said about Vince Lombardi's coaching branches, which included folks like Bill Austin, Norb Hecker and Mike McCormack.

Assistant coaches did not become the norm until around the 1940s, although even in the early days of the NFL there were cases such as Dim Batterson of coaches assisting before rising to the top post. In those days player-coaches were common, and most of them never went on to a different coaching position, which is why those coaching history tables will mostly remain bare. There were exceptions, such as Bob Dove who was a player-coach for the Chicago Rockets and would go on to take assistant positions with the Lions and Bills before becoming a long-time assistant for Youngstown State. College coaches were also common in the early days of the NFL, such as Ed Robinson, who began his coaching career way back in 1896 with Nebraska before eventually coaching the Providence Steam Roller for one season.

We give thanks to the Professional Football Researchers Association and the work of John Maxymuk who had done extensive research on NFL head coaching history, along with additional newspaper verification by Alex Bonilla. In the future we may also fill in the coaching history of offensive and defensive coordinators we are currently lacking that information for. If you have any corrections or additional information to share or suggestions, feel free to contact us through our feedback form or Pro Football Reference's official Twitter account. Thanks for following PFR!

Posted in Announcement, Data, Features, History, Pro-Football-Reference.com, Trivia | 1 Comment »

Match Reports and Player Match Logs Now Complete for MLS History

8th November 2019

Major League Soccer's first season was in 1996, and since then the league has expanded to 24 teams playing in this 2019 season, and has the Seattle Sounders and Toronto FC preparing to face off in the MLS Cup on November 10. (Editor's note: congratulations to the Sounders on their 3-1 victory and the 2019 MLS title!) With that, FBref is happy to announce that we now have match reports and player match logs available for the league's entire history.

The first MLS Cup was held on October 20, 1996, where DC United defeated LA Galaxy 3-2 in extra time. Our reports include substitutions, cards issued, time played, goals, assists and missed penalty kicks.

With the addition of match reports comes having match logs for all players in MLS history. Carlos Ruiz had an amazing debut MLS season in 2002 for the LA Galaxy, leading the league with 24 regular season goals. Ruiz's 2002 match log shows you quickly that he scored in each of his first 4 games of the season. We also have his postseason logs, which included 3 multi-goal games en route to Los Angeles' MLS Cup victory over New England that season.

We want to give a big thanks to SportDirect, Howard Hamilton and Jay Hutchinson for their work and research done for this particular project. FBref will continue to expand its historical offerings for the various leagues we currently cover. You can keep up with the latest additions of competitions coverage and new features here on the Sports Reference Blog, or by signing up for the This Week in Sports Reference mailing list. Feel free to send us any questions or suggestions through our feedback form or FBref's official Twitter account.

Posted in Announcement, Data, FBref, Features, History | Comments Off on Match Reports and Player Match Logs Now Complete for MLS History

2019-20 NBA Player Projections Added to Basketball Reference

18th October 2019

Basketball-Reference has added 2019-20 NBA player projections, using our Simple Projection System, which is adapted from Tom Tango's Marcel the Monkey Forecasting System.

Since we're not controlling substitution patterns, all projections are for per-36 minutes statistics. In addition to the full list of player projections linked above, we are also displaying them on individual player pages. Please use these responsibly and enjoy! Also, take the time to check out some other features you may be unaware of in the site's Frivolities section.

Posted in Announcement, Basketball-Reference.com, Features, Statgeekery | Comments Off on 2019-20 NBA Player Projections Added to Basketball Reference

Row Isolation Added to Sports-Reference Sites

16th October 2019

Sports-Reference has added a feature to tables that will make it a lot easier to compare teams and players in an easily scannable fashion. Now, when you select a row on a table, a popup will appear with a button: "Show Only Selected Rows". Highlight the rows you want to isolate, and once you're ready, click the button. The site will then fade out the unselected rows so the only rows displayed are the ones you highlighted. If you want to return to viewing the full table, just click on the "Show All Rows" button.

This feature applies to any tables that don't have row summing capabilities. This will work on both desktop and mobile. You can see a video of the feature in action at Baseball-Reference's Twitter account. You can contact us through our feedback form if you have any questions or suggestions.

Posted in Announcement, Baseball-Reference.com, Basketball-Reference.com, CBB at Sports Reference, CFB at Sports Reference, FBref, Features, General, Hockey-Reference.com, Pro-Football-Reference.com, Tips and Tricks | 2 Comments »

Advanced Team Statistics Tables Now on PFR

11th October 2019

Last month on the Sports Reference Blog we posted about the addition of advanced statistics at the individual level on offense and defense for 2018 and 2019. We've followed up on that addition and also calculated those advanced statistics at the team level and made season tables to make league-wide comparisons easier. You can find team advanced offensive statistics by going to the Other tab on the league season page and clicking on the Advanced Stats link. Here's a link to 2019 team advanced offensive statistics.

Team advanced defensive statistics can be accessed by going to the main Team Defense page, which is linked in the Defensive Stats tab of the league season page. Here's a direct link to the Team Advanced Defense table for 2019. Some team statistics we include here that aren't currently calculated at the individual level include blitz rate (blitzes per dropback), QB knockdown rate (knockdowns per pass attempt) and pressure rate (pressures per dropback).

Also, we were already including advanced offensive stats at the game level in box scores, but we've also recently added advanced defensive stats in box scores as well. For example, here's a link to the Advanced Defense table for the Chiefs-Colts Week 5 matchup. A reminder that advanced statistics across the site don't fully update until the Wednesday morning following the weekend's games.

We are continuing to expand our statistical coverage for recent seasons, so we're always open to feedback on how to best serve what you most want to know. If you have any questions or suggestions, feel free to contact us through our feedback form or Pro Football Reference's official Twitter account. Thanks for following PFR!

Posted in Advanced Stats, Announcement, Data, Features, Pro-Football-Reference.com | Comments Off on Advanced Team Statistics Tables Now on PFR

FBref Adds Domestic Cups

9th October 2019

FBref hopes to be a one-stop shop for international football statistics, and another big step towards that goal has been made with the addition of various European domestic cups and supercups. The following competitions are now covered by FBref:

ENGLAND

* EFL Cup (since 2014-15)
* FA Cup (since 2014-15)
* FA Community Shield (since 2015)

GERMANY

* DFB-Pokal (since 2014-15)
* DFL-Supercup (since 2014)
* DFB-Pokal Frauen (since 2019-20)

FRANCE

* Coupe de France (since 2014-15)
* Coupe de la Ligue (since 2014-15)
* Trophée des Champions (since 2014)

SPAIN

* Copa del Rey (since 2014-15)
* Supercopa de España (since 2015)

ITALY

* Coppa Italia (since 2014-15)
* Supercoppa Italiana (since 2014)

Player statistics from domestic cups can be viewed in the All Competitions table of player pages, either by selecting the Domestic Cups tab or the All Expanded tab, which will show their stats for every competition we currently cover. You can keep up with the latest additions of competitions coverage and new features here on the Sports Reference Blog, or by signing up for the This Week in Sports Reference mailing list. Feel free to send us any questions or suggestions through our feedback form or FBref's official Twitter account.

Posted in Announcement, Data, FBref, Features | Comments Off on FBref Adds Domestic Cups

FBref Adds Youth Leagues

8th October 2019

FBref continues to expand the variety of competitions covered on the site, as we are now announcing the addition of the following youth leagues:

* Premier League 2 - Division 1 (U23)
* Premier League 2 - Division 2 (U23)
* A-Junioren Bundesliga (U19)
* B-Junioren Bundesliga (U17)

One name Bundesliga enthusiasts may be hearing for years to come is Youssoufa Moukoko, who has scored 15 goals through the first 7 games of the A-Junioren Bundesliga season for Dortmund. He moved up to A after scoring 46 goals and 37 goals in the last 2 B-Junioren Bundesliga seasons. Mind you, he will celebrate his 15th birthday later this year.

From the English youth leagues, Harry Wilson led PL 2 - Div 1 in goals scored in 2016-17, as well as finishing 3rd the following season. This year he's playing at the top level with Bournemouth on loan from Liverpool and already has 3 goals on his 2019-20 ledger.

Youth league statistics will appear in a separate table on player pages when applicable. You can keep up with the latest additions of competitions coverage and new features here on the Sports Reference Blog, or by signing up for the This Week in Sports Reference mailing list. Feel free to send us any questions or suggestions through our feedback form or FBref's official Twitter account.

Posted in Announcement, Data, FBref, Features | Comments Off on FBref Adds Youth Leagues