Sports Reference Blog

The Divisional Playoffs is typically the best football weekend of the year and this time is no exception. Every QB playing this weekend is either a #1 pick, a Super Bowl champion, or (hi, Peyton) both. Who will win? I know the answer, and I'd tell you, but I don't want to spoil it. So, instead, here's some storylines, stats, and general things to watch out for this weekend:

Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots

You may recall that the last time these teams met, it didn't go great for New England. How bad was it? This bad. Just 16 months later, Tom Brady is as good as he's ever been, but so are the Chiefs. How can New England avoid a repeat of their last matchup? Here's three statistical points that show how unusual that game was for New England:

• In that game, Tom Brady threw 2 INTs on 23 passes. How rare is that? Out of 252 career starts in the regular season and playoffs, that Chiefs game was the only time Brady had 2 INTs on under 25 passes
• In his career, Brady has thrown 892 passes of 15 yards or more. He's completed 42.2% of those, with 80 TDs vs 43 INTs and an average of 12.4 yards per attempt. In total, his passer rating on deep passes is 98.5. Versus the Chiefs, his numbers were slightly worse. In that game, Brady went 1-5 for 0 TDs, 1 INT, 3.6 Y/A, and a 2.5 passer rating. I didn't miss a digit or put a decimal in the wrong spot. His passer rating on deep balls was 2.5.
• The Patriots had a -3 turnover margin. They've had 16 such games in the Brady era, fewest of any NFL team, and 0 since that night in Kansas City

Was it an outlier performance by the Patriots, a dominant one by the Chiefs, or a little of both? We'll have to see on Saturday afternoon if the Chiefs can do it again.

Green Bay Packers vs Arizona Cardinals

Speaking of things that may be outlier performances, Arizona's dismantling of Green Bay in Week 16 is likely still very fresh in your mind. In that game, Green Bay turned the ball over on fumbles 3 times. In total, 25% of Green Bay drives ended in a fumble. Was that an outlier? You bet:

Click for the bigger version

That said, Arizona is 2nd in the league in ending drives with TOs. Only the Panthers can beat the 16.7% TO rate posted by the Cardinals' D. In terms of fumbles recovered, Arizona's defense was 3rd with 14.

Seattle Seahawks vs Carolina Panthers

Just two years ago, it seemed like this generation's great QB rivalry would play out on the West Coast, between Russell Wilson and Colin Kaepernick. That rivalry has been, at the very least, on hold for a couple of years. Instead, it's another young QB with the ability to run as well as pass who's become Wilson's main rival.

As we prepare for the Wilson-Newton VI, we thought it would be worthwhile to look at how their first 5 games stacked up to the first 5 showdowns between Tom Brady and Peyton Manning. It turns out, there are a few similarities. Here's Manning and Brady's numbers through five matchups:

And here's Cam and Russ. Note, in particular, the passer rating and the W-L record:

Not identical, perhaps, but the beginning of a fascinating rivalry, nonetheless. Like Brady and Manning, 4 of the first 5 Wilson-Newton matchups happened in the regular season. And like Brady-Manning VI, Wilson-Newton VI is their 2nd playoff showdown. Of course, while Peyton would have to wait for the 7th matchup to get a W, Cam Newton already beat the Seahawks earlier this season. Can he beat them twice in a season, something Peyton Manning wouldn't do to the Patriots until 2006?

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Denver Broncos

Speaking of which, you might have heard that Peyton Manning is back at the controls of the Denver offense. But this Peyton is a little different from the one we're used to. In fact, by Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt, a measure of yards per pass attempt that also accounts for sacks, INTs, and TDs, Peyton was the worst qualified QB in 2015. The problem: according to other measures, like plain old net yards per attempt or any measure of how a QB does on deep passes, Manning was better than his replacement, Brock Osweiler. Either way, we may be in for a performance that's well below what we expect for a team with Peyton Manning on the roster:

So we're in for 4 great games with a lot of fascinating questions this weekend. And we'll be there for every second of the action, so make sure to follow us on Twitter for live updates and statistical facts.

This entry was posted on Friday, January 15th, 2016 at 5:05 pm and is filed under Pro-Football-Reference.com. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.