Posted by Mike Lynch on October 21, 2015
You may have noticed a recent addition to our player pages: an italicized stat line for 2016. These are projections for 2016, which were generated using the Marcel the Monkey Forecasting System.
The Marcel projection system was originally developed by Tom Tango as the "minimum level of competence that you should expect from any forecaster." Let's let him describe it:
Actually, it is the most basic forecasting system you can have, that uses as little intelligence as possible. So, that's the allusion to the monkey. It uses 3 years of MLB data, with the most recent data weighted heavier. It regresses towards the mean. And it has an age factor.
I do not stand behind these forecasts. Consider me only a trustee of the system. For me to stand behind a forecasting system, I'd have to spend a multitude of hours to get it right. And, the difference between doing it right, and doing it with the Marcels.... well, I'd rather continue spending my time working on other baseball research.
More details on Tango's system are available here: http://tangotiger.net/marcel/
Please Note: Tom Tango has not certified, reviewed, or confirmed any of the projections on this site. Any descrepencies from data published elsewhere are solely the responsibility of Sports Reference.
In order to generate these projections, we have used code published by Jeff Sackmann as a reference for our implementation. Jeff has also not certified or confirmed any of the resulting projections.