Sports Reference Blog

Approximate Value and Hall of Fame Standards

Posted by Neil on February 28, 2013

PFR user Oscar asked today about whether we had a football version of Baseball-Reference's Hall of Fame standards using Weighted Career Approximate Value. To that end, I analyzed weighted career AV data on retired players who started their careers in 1950 or later. Here was a breakdown of all Hall of Famers in that group:

Maximum 159
90th percentile 130
75th percentile 114
Average 101
Median 101
25th percentile 88
10th percentile 73
Minimum (non-kickers) 31
Minimum 0

Using a regression formula, we can also say what your odds of making the Hall are at any given Weighted Career AV threshold:

Wgtd Career AV p(HoF)
160 100%
140 98%
130 94%
125 91%
120 85%
115 78%
110 69%
105 57%
100 45%
95 33%
90 23%
85 16%
80 10%
75 7%
70 4%
60 2%
50 1%
45 0%

2 Responses to “Approximate Value and Hall of Fame Standards”

  1. Topher Says:

    Wow this is great, wonder how it will change as time passes though as some positions become more clogged than others and standards change. Take a player like Donovan McNabb whose Weighted AV of 107 should put him over 60% chance of making it but since he didn't win a Super Bowl his chances of getting in drop. Or take another player like Brian Urlacher, with a Weighted AV of 120, whose attempt to get in will follow Ray Lewis which means some may not see him stack up well against Lewis' career.

    This is interesting and it will be fun to test the correlation between this and other HoF factors, thanks.

  2. Chase Says:

    Just saw this. Cool stuff - definitely a useful baseline measure.