Sports Reference Blog
Things I Learned From the New PFR Play Finder: QBs in the Clutch
Posted by Neil on September 5, 2012
Might as well face it -- most people are going to use our new Play Finder tool to search for clutch stats on quarterbacks. How do I know this? Because, when Basketball-Reference rolled out its Play Index+, the most popular searches (by far) involved some combination of Kobe Bryant and clutch/late-game shooting splits.
And if there's anything fans love more than the fabled NBA "closer", it's the crunch-time QB.
So let's do this. Much like I did in the clutch receivers post, I'm going to dig up clutch stats for QBs from a variety of different angles. There is no one single, unifying definition of "clutch", but we can at least try to get close to a consensus by using the splits most people would think about when looking for clutch performances.
The first leaderboard I'm going to show is a list of QBs in do-or-die down & distance situations -- 3rd/4th and long (7+ yds to go) -- over the past 3 seasons (min 100 att):
Player | Cmp | Att | Cmp% | Yds | TD | Int | Rate | AY/A |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Michael Vick | 63 | 106 | 59.4% | 1037 | 7 | 3 | 102.6 | 9.8 |
Aaron Rodgers | 141 | 228 | 61.8% | 2005 | 9 | 5 | 94.3 | 8.6 |
Matt Moore | 66 | 104 | 63.5% | 960 | 4 | 4 | 90.2 | 8.3 |
Tom Brady | 122 | 223 | 54.7% | 1783 | 9 | 3 | 88.8 | 8.2 |
Ben Roethlisberger | 124 | 214 | 57.9% | 1882 | 8 | 7 | 85.8 | 8.1 |
Jason Campbell | 101 | 164 | 61.6% | 1246 | 7 | 2 | 94.2 | 7.9 |
Tony Romo | 124 | 211 | 58.8% | 1712 | 8 | 6 | 85.7 | 7.6 |
Eli Manning | 162 | 279 | 58.1% | 2457 | 12 | 13 | 82.1 | 7.6 |
Philip Rivers | 138 | 251 | 55.0% | 2258 | 11 | 13 | 78.4 | 7.5 |
Drew Brees | 163 | 253 | 64.4% | 2113 | 12 | 11 | 88.3 | 7.3 |
David Garrard | 94 | 154 | 61.0% | 1164 | 9 | 5 | 90.4 | 7.3 |
Josh Freeman | 137 | 218 | 62.8% | 1728 | 6 | 6 | 85.2 | 7.2 |
Matt Schaub | 109 | 179 | 60.9% | 1323 | 4 | 3 | 84.1 | 7.1 |
Brett Favre | 86 | 140 | 61.4% | 1185 | 5 | 7 | 79.6 | 6.9 |
Peyton Manning | 97 | 153 | 63.4% | 1251 | 3 | 6 | 79.2 | 6.8 |
Shaun Hill | 65 | 107 | 60.7% | 783 | 1 | 2 | 78.5 | 6.7 |
Joe Flacco | 163 | 282 | 57.8% | 2157 | 13 | 12 | 79.8 | 6.7 |
Sam Bradford | 80 | 156 | 51.3% | 1011 | 5 | 2 | 77.2 | 6.5 |
Kyle Orton | 105 | 183 | 57.4% | 1205 | 6 | 3 | 81.4 | 6.5 |
Matt Ryan | 150 | 259 | 57.9% | 1863 | 9 | 9 | 77.4 | 6.3 |
Matt Cassel | 129 | 211 | 61.1% | 1613 | 7 | 10 | 76.2 | 6.2 |
Carson Palmer | 123 | 221 | 55.7% | 1677 | 9 | 11 | 72.9 | 6.2 |
Matthew Stafford | 95 | 178 | 53.4% | 1263 | 10 | 10 | 71.4 | 5.7 |
Colt McCoy | 56 | 102 | 54.9% | 631 | 6 | 4 | 76.9 | 5.6 |
Alex Smith | 120 | 205 | 58.5% | 1325 | 4 | 7 | 70.1 | 5.3 |
Matt Hasselbeck | 144 | 248 | 58.1% | 1566 | 5 | 9 | 68.4 | 5.1 |
Donovan McNabb | 85 | 172 | 49.4% | 1099 | 2 | 6 | 59.2 | 5.1 |
Jay Cutler | 114 | 209 | 54.5% | 1474 | 5 | 12 | 61.0 | 4.9 |
Ryan Fitzpatrick | 112 | 202 | 55.4% | 1330 | 8 | 12 | 64.2 | 4.7 |
Mark Sanchez | 142 | 272 | 52.2% | 1731 | 8 | 15 | 58.9 | 4.5 |
Chad Henne | 84 | 167 | 50.3% | 1020 | 4 | 12 | 47.5 | 3.4 |
OK, how about QBs in do-or-die clock situations (4th qtr/OT, tied or trailing by a TD or less, min 65 att)?
Player | Cmp | Att | Cmp% | Yds | TD | Int | Rate | AY/A |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Aaron Rodgers | 71 | 107 | 66.4% | 962 | 5 | 2 | 102.6 | 9.1 |
Tony Romo | 118 | 195 | 60.5% | 1683 | 10 | 4 | 97.0 | 8.7 |
Ben Roethlisberger | 87 | 156 | 55.8% | 1246 | 6 | 1 | 92.0 | 8.5 |
Eli Manning | 100 | 165 | 60.6% | 1351 | 11 | 4 | 98.8 | 8.4 |
John Skelton | 43 | 73 | 58.9% | 558 | 4 | 1 | 95.6 | 8.1 |
David Garrard | 57 | 91 | 62.6% | 708 | 5 | 2 | 95.9 | 7.9 |
Jason Campbell | 52 | 80 | 65.0% | 661 | 3 | 2 | 92.8 | 7.9 |
Peyton Manning | 62 | 104 | 59.6% | 846 | 5 | 3 | 89.7 | 7.8 |
Drew Brees | 142 | 204 | 69.6% | 1531 | 11 | 4 | 101.2 | 7.7 |
Matt Schaub | 104 | 162 | 64.2% | 1276 | 5 | 7 | 80.7 | 6.5 |
Josh Freeman | 78 | 133 | 58.6% | 1061 | 6 | 7 | 77.3 | 6.5 |
Jay Cutler | 84 | 140 | 60.0% | 1016 | 10 | 7 | 85.3 | 6.4 |
Matt Hasselbeck | 48 | 79 | 60.8% | 519 | 3 | 2 | 82.2 | 6.2 |
Matthew Stafford | 68 | 124 | 54.8% | 776 | 8 | 4 | 81.9 | 6.1 |
Carson Palmer | 88 | 145 | 60.7% | 963 | 5 | 4 | 80.3 | 6.1 |
Brett Favre | 67 | 114 | 58.8% | 844 | 3 | 5 | 72.4 | 6.0 |
Kyle Orton | 73 | 130 | 56.2% | 922 | 5 | 6 | 72.0 | 5.8 |
Matt Ryan | 95 | 166 | 57.2% | 1097 | 8 | 7 | 75.8 | 5.7 |
Joe Flacco | 97 | 167 | 58.1% | 1096 | 6 | 6 | 74.8 | 5.7 |
Tom Brady | 68 | 118 | 57.6% | 773 | 7 | 6 | 76.0 | 5.4 |
Cam Newton | 36 | 74 | 48.6% | 448 | 2 | 2 | 65.6 | 5.4 |
Philip Rivers | 98 | 171 | 57.3% | 1159 | 5 | 8 | 68.3 | 5.3 |
Donovan McNabb | 61 | 114 | 53.5% | 697 | 1 | 3 | 64.1 | 5.1 |
Matt Cassel | 68 | 129 | 52.7% | 893 | 6 | 8 | 64.5 | 5.1 |
Alex Smith | 60 | 110 | 54.5% | 701 | 3 | 5 | 64.2 | 4.9 |
Mark Sanchez | 85 | 176 | 48.3% | 1073 | 5 | 8 | 58.3 | 4.6 |
Colt McCoy | 36 | 69 | 52.2% | 298 | 3 | 1 | 72.0 | 4.5 |
Rex Grossman | 50 | 85 | 58.8% | 554 | 2 | 5 | 61.6 | 4.3 |
Ryan Fitzpatrick | 91 | 158 | 57.6% | 941 | 4 | 8 | 62.2 | 4.2 |
Andy Dalton | 38 | 80 | 47.5% | 447 | 1 | 4 | 48.3 | 3.6 |
Chad Henne | 58 | 124 | 46.8% | 637 | 4 | 7 | 49.7 | 3.2 |
Jake Delhomme | 38 | 69 | 55.1% | 365 | 1 | 4 | 50.7 | 3.0 |
Sam Bradford | 34 | 67 | 50.7% | 303 | 1 | 3 | 49.5 | 2.8 |
A compromise between those two splits leaves you with these QBs on 3rd/4th down and 5+ yds to go, with the score margin +/- 7 points in the 4th qtr/OT (min 20 att):
Player | Cmp | Att | Cmp% | Yds | TD | Int | Rate | AY/A | 1D/TD | Succ% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tony Romo | 26 | 48 | 54.2% | 528 | 5 | 0 | 127.8 | 13.1 | 15 | 31.3% |
Eli Manning | 31 | 50 | 62.0% | 554 | 7 | 1 | 131.2 | 13.0 | 21 | 42.0% |
Josh Freeman | 24 | 35 | 68.6% | 449 | 2 | 1 | 118.5 | 12.7 | 16 | 45.7% |
Ben Roethlisberger | 32 | 57 | 56.1% | 571 | 4 | 1 | 106.7 | 10.6 | 25 | 43.9% |
John Skelton | 15 | 22 | 68.2% | 227 | 1 | 1 | 98.1 | 9.2 | 8 | 36.4% |
Drew Brees | 36 | 52 | 69.2% | 509 | 5 | 3 | 108.6 | 9.1 | 26 | 50.0% |
Matt Ryan | 29 | 48 | 60.4% | 374 | 3 | 0 | 105.7 | 9.0 | 24 | 50.0% |
Matt Cassel | 23 | 37 | 62.2% | 364 | 3 | 2 | 99.4 | 9.0 | 14 | 37.8% |
Carson Palmer | 26 | 39 | 66.7% | 329 | 2 | 1 | 99.2 | 8.3 | 16 | 41.0% |
Peyton Manning | 13 | 24 | 54.2% | 266 | 1 | 2 | 72.6 | 8.2 | 10 | 41.7% |
Rex Grossman | 12 | 22 | 54.5% | 192 | 1 | 1 | 80.1 | 7.6 | 8 | 36.4% |
Andy Dalton | 11 | 26 | 42.3% | 169 | 1 | 0 | 77.2 | 7.3 | 7 | 26.9% |
Tom Brady | 18 | 37 | 48.6% | 212 | 2 | 0 | 84.5 | 6.8 | 15 | 40.5% |
Aaron Rodgers | 18 | 32 | 56.3% | 220 | 2 | 1 | 85.4 | 6.7 | 11 | 34.4% |
Matt Schaub | 19 | 34 | 55.9% | 278 | 2 | 2 | 77.8 | 6.7 | 12 | 35.3% |
Jason Campbell | 14 | 25 | 56.0% | 147 | 1 | 0 | 86.6 | 6.7 | 5 | 20.0% |
Jay Cutler | 17 | 33 | 51.5% | 244 | 2 | 2 | 70.8 | 5.9 | 9 | 27.3% |
Joe Flacco | 26 | 58 | 44.8% | 379 | 4 | 3 | 68.1 | 5.6 | 19 | 32.8% |
Matt Hasselbeck | 15 | 25 | 60.0% | 170 | 0 | 1 | 63.8 | 5.0 | 9 | 36.0% |
Kevin Kolb | 10 | 22 | 45.5% | 174 | 1 | 2 | 50.2 | 4.7 | 4 | 18.2% |
David Garrard | 10 | 20 | 50.0% | 119 | 1 | 1 | 64.4 | 4.7 | 6 | 30.0% |
Kyle Orton | 17 | 32 | 53.1% | 217 | 1 | 2 | 59.0 | 4.6 | 6 | 18.8% |
Sam Bradford | 12 | 25 | 48.0% | 139 | 1 | 1 | 61.9 | 4.6 | 5 | 20.0% |
Brett Favre | 19 | 38 | 50.0% | 242 | 3 | 3 | 63.7 | 4.4 | 13 | 34.2% |
Ryan Fitzpatrick | 15 | 36 | 41.7% | 174 | 0 | 1 | 45.4 | 3.6 | 8 | 22.2% |
Mark Sanchez | 31 | 67 | 46.3% | 407 | 0 | 4 | 41.1 | 3.4 | 26 | 38.8% |
Philip Rivers | 20 | 51 | 39.2% | 345 | 1 | 5 | 29.9 | 2.7 | 16 | 31.4% |
Matthew Stafford | 12 | 31 | 38.7% | 132 | 1 | 2 | 36.0 | 2.0 | 9 | 29.0% |
Donovan McNabb | 11 | 37 | 29.7% | 86 | 1 | 1 | 37.3 | 1.6 | 5 | 13.5% |
Alex Smith | 10 | 21 | 47.6% | 85 | 1 | 2 | 34.9 | 0.7 | 4 | 19.0% |
Chad Henne | 14 | 46 | 30.4% | 135 | 0 | 8 | 0.4 | -4.9 | 8 | 17.4% |
One final split: who has the biggest difference between their clutch (in the broadest definition yet) Adjusted YPA and their AY/A in every other situation?
Clutch | All Other Situations | ||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Player | Cmp | Att | Cmp% | Yds | TD | Int | AY/A | Cmp | Att | Cmp% | Yds | TD | Int | AY/A | Diff |
Eli Manning | 69 | 116 | 59.5% | 1113 | 11 | 4 | 9.9 | 1032 | 1651 | 62.5% | 12915 | 83 | 49 | 7.5 | 2.4 |
Josh Freeman | 52 | 88 | 59.1% | 733 | 6 | 3 | 8.2 | 728 | 1206 | 60.4% | 8035 | 43 | 43 | 5.8 | 2.4 |
David Garrard | 35 | 57 | 61.4% | 438 | 6 | 2 | 8.2 | 495 | 791 | 62.6% | 5634 | 30 | 20 | 6.7 | 1.5 |
Matt Moore | 36 | 57 | 63.2% | 465 | 3 | 2 | 7.6 | 338 | 571 | 59.2% | 3914 | 26 | 19 | 6.3 | 1.4 |
Jason Campbell | 53 | 79 | 67.1% | 598 | 4 | 1 | 8.0 | 561 | 904 | 62.1% | 6495 | 35 | 25 | 6.7 | 1.3 |
Matt Schaub | 56 | 86 | 65.1% | 781 | 4 | 2 | 9.0 | 864 | 1330 | 65.0% | 10584 | 63 | 31 | 7.9 | 1.1 |
Tony Romo | 58 | 102 | 56.9% | 963 | 7 | 4 | 9.0 | 829 | 1254 | 66.1% | 9752 | 63 | 23 | 8.0 | 1.1 |
Matt Ryan | 75 | 118 | 63.6% | 842 | 7 | 2 | 7.6 | 910 | 1502 | 60.6% | 10077 | 71 | 35 | 6.6 | 1.0 |
Ben Roethlisberger | 67 | 120 | 55.8% | 1001 | 7 | 2 | 8.8 | 867 | 1351 | 64.2% | 10977 | 57 | 32 | 7.9 | 0.9 |
Vince Young | 31 | 52 | 59.6% | 319 | 3 | 0 | 7.3 | 268 | 461 | 58.1% | 3512 | 21 | 19 | 6.7 | 0.6 |
Rex Grossman | 29 | 61 | 47.5% | 383 | 4 | 2 | 6.1 | 313 | 539 | 58.1% | 3685 | 19 | 23 | 5.6 | 0.5 |
Aaron Rodgers | 58 | 97 | 59.8% | 819 | 9 | 2 | 9.4 | 1044 | 1573 | 66.4% | 13346 | 102 | 26 | 9.0 | 0.3 |
Carson Palmer | 56 | 109 | 51.4% | 706 | 5 | 2 | 6.6 | 786 | 1273 | 61.7% | 9027 | 54 | 46 | 6.3 | 0.3 |
Matt Hasselbeck | 43 | 75 | 57.3% | 457 | 2 | 1 | 6.0 | 851 | 1413 | 60.2% | 9305 | 51 | 48 | 5.8 | 0.2 |
Tom Brady | 71 | 121 | 58.7% | 910 | 15 | 4 | 8.5 | 1133 | 1720 | 65.9% | 13766 | 98 | 33 | 8.3 | 0.2 |
Ryan Fitzpatrick | 48 | 90 | 53.3% | 505 | 4 | 1 | 6.0 | 666 | 1112 | 59.9% | 7435 | 48 | 44 | 5.8 | 0.2 |
Andy Dalton | 28 | 51 | 54.9% | 288 | 1 | 0 | 6.0 | 299 | 507 | 59.0% | 3367 | 19 | 16 | 6.0 | 0.1 |
Matt Cassel | 48 | 99 | 48.5% | 677 | 5 | 5 | 5.6 | 640 | 1110 | 57.7% | 6937 | 46 | 30 | 5.9 | -0.3 |
Drew Brees | 93 | 139 | 66.9% | 1058 | 11 | 5 | 7.6 | 1340 | 1914 | 70.0% | 15102 | 116 | 42 | 8.1 | -0.5 |
Joe Flacco | 69 | 136 | 50.7% | 964 | 7 | 6 | 6.1 | 941 | 1533 | 61.4% | 10675 | 65 | 33 | 6.8 | -0.7 |
Brett Favre | 40 | 78 | 51.3% | 605 | 6 | 5 | 6.4 | 567 | 845 | 67.1% | 6450 | 43 | 22 | 7.5 | -1.1 |
Sam Bradford | 32 | 62 | 51.6% | 322 | 2 | 2 | 4.4 | 486 | 844 | 57.6% | 5112 | 20 | 18 | 5.6 | -1.2 |
Jay Cutler | 57 | 102 | 55.9% | 634 | 8 | 6 | 5.1 | 743 | 1243 | 59.8% | 8977 | 57 | 44 | 6.5 | -1.4 |
Mark Sanchez | 78 | 166 | 47.0% | 863 | 4 | 6 | 4.1 | 777 | 1370 | 56.7% | 9170 | 57 | 47 | 6.0 | -1.9 |
Alex Smith | 38 | 82 | 46.3% | 444 | 4 | 3 | 4.7 | 701 | 1145 | 61.2% | 7921 | 50 | 23 | 6.9 | -2.1 |
Colt McCoy | 26 | 51 | 51.0% | 245 | 1 | 2 | 3.4 | 357 | 606 | 58.9% | 3823 | 18 | 17 | 5.6 | -2.2 |
Peyton Manning | 46 | 78 | 59.0% | 551 | 4 | 5 | 5.2 | 864 | 1274 | 67.8% | 9434 | 65 | 27 | 7.5 | -2.3 |
Matthew Stafford | 39 | 75 | 52.0% | 360 | 5 | 3 | 4.3 | 668 | 1104 | 60.5% | 7860 | 58 | 36 | 6.7 | -2.4 |
Kyle Orton | 45 | 86 | 52.3% | 478 | 2 | 3 | 4.5 | 734 | 1207 | 60.8% | 8714 | 48 | 27 | 7.0 | -2.6 |
Chad Henne | 47 | 104 | 45.2% | 543 | 3 | 8 | 2.3 | 592 | 949 | 62.4% | 6504 | 28 | 29 | 6.1 | -3.7 |
Donovan McNabb | 28 | 74 | 37.8% | 268 | 1 | 2 | 2.7 | 597 | 985 | 60.6% | 7523 | 39 | 25 | 7.3 | -4.6 |
Philip Rivers | 45 | 98 | 45.9% | 628 | 3 | 10 | 2.4 | 1022 | 1554 | 65.8% | 13219 | 83 | 34 | 8.6 | -6.2 |
So who has been the best clutch QB in recent seasons? As I said earlier, no list or set of criteria is going to please everyone (or even a fraction of football fans), but from these lists it looks like Eli Manning and Tony Romo should be near the top of anyone's list... an appropriate pair, given tonight's matchup to kick off the 2012 season!
Neil, that is interesting stuff. If you would do that for only the playoffs, it might give us some insight into why some QB's seem to have more success than others when it comes to winning their biggest (championship) games. I can only imagine where my guy (Marino) would come in if you included retired guys as well. I'm well aware of all the negative value games he provided for our team in the PO's thanks to Chase's study a few years ago.
Love this new tool. I have gotten lost sometimes doing research using these tools.
These statistics are very insightful Thank you so much. I am a big Patriots fan, but I have a soft spot in my heart for Tony Romo. I feel like Tony Romo is the most smeared quarterback since Terry Bradshaw.
Tony Romo is a great quarterback with the #2 career (read ALL-TIME) QB Rating and yet commentators on TV continue to malign the guy and everyone acts shocked when Tony Romo performs well in the 4th quarter... when in fact his career statistics put him above Marino, Peyton Manning, and Tom Brady significant statistical categories.
I hope that you are able to get these stats in front of the media so that they can begin to correct the damage they have done to Tony Romo's Legacy!
Id say QBs with only 80+ attempts make the cut...even though Campbell did have the Raiders in 1st place before his injury.