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August 26, 2011

## Baseball: Trying to score from 3B, down by 1, with 1 out left in the game

Trying to score from 3B, down by 1, with 1 out left in the game: How certain should you be of success when trying to score in that situation? Tango does the math.

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August 22, 2011

## Soccer: Expected Points Added (EPA) Data Through EPL Week 1

Expected Points Added (EPA) Data Through EPL Week 1: Soccer Statistically’s Ford Bohrmann ranks EPL players’ performance based on their Expected Points Added, or the amount of points in the league table that their goals contributed to the team effort.

August 17, 2011

## Football: Introducing The Win Probability Metric

Introducing The Win Probability Metric: CHFF takes their stab at an NFL win probability metric, and ranks 2010 offenses according to how much their drives increased the team’s probability of winning games.

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July 15, 2011

## Soccer: The Declining Fortunes of David Moyes (An m£XIR analysis)

The Declining Fortunes of David Moyes (An m£XIR analysis): At Pay As You Play, Zach Slaton uses the relationship he found between transfer fees and win probability to judge how much bang for his buck the Everton manager has gotten in recent seasons.

July 14, 2011

Adjusted Player “dWin%”: From Nathan Walker of The Basketball Distribution, an attempt to calculate adjusted +/- using in-game win probability instead of point differential.

June 20, 2011

## Soccer: The Effect of £XI on Match Outcome

The Effect of £XI on Match Outcome: Zach Slaton of A Beautiful Numbers Game invites you to check out his regression model that predicts match outcomes based on home-pitch and the transfer cost ratios of each starting eleven.

## Baseball: Late-Game Bias – When Some Points Count More

Late-Game Bias: When Some Points Count More: Back Picks analyzes our tendency to give more weight to events that happen at the end of games.

June 16, 2011

Radical Pitcher-Usage Theory: At Crashburn Alley, an interesting idea for pitcher usage — change it based on the win probability of the game.

June 13, 2011

## Final 2011 NBA Finals Series Win Probability Graph

Final 2011 NBA Finals Series Win Probability Graph: At BBR, the final graph of the year details Dallas’ rise to 100% Finals win probability.

June 12, 2011

## BBR Gets Ready For Game 6

BBR Gets Ready For Game 6: From Basketball-Reference, a ranking of the best playoff players since 2003, as well as graphs showing the Mavs’ and Heat’s championship probabilities throughout the playoffs.

June 10, 2011

## 2011 NBA Finals Series Win Probability After Game 5

2011 NBA Finals Series Win Probability After Game 5: An updated Finals win probability graph through Game 5 from Basketball-Reference’s Neil Paine.

June 9, 2011

## Miami Heat, Dallas Mavericks Play Yet Another Close Game

Miami Heat, Dallas Mavericks Play Yet Another Close Game: A review of the 2011 Finals win probability by Carl Bialik of the WSJ Daily Fix.

June 8, 2011

## 2011 NBA Finals Series Win Probability After Game 4

2011 NBA Finals Series Win Probability After Game 4: An updated Finals win probability graph at Basketball-Reference.

June 6, 2011

## 2011 NBA Finals Series Win Probability After Game 3

2011 NBA Finals Series Win Probability After Game 3: From BBR, the NBA Finals win expectancy graph through 3 games.

June 2, 2011

## Can Dallas Come Back? Few Have

Can Dallas Come Back? Few Have: The WSJ’s Carl Bialik looks at Neil Paine’s series win probability model and other data to assess the hole Dallas already finds themselves in.

June 1, 2011

## NBA Finals Series Win Probability After Game 1 » Basketball-Reference.com Blog » Blog Archive

NBA Finals Series Win Probability After Game 1: At BBR, Neil Paine charts Miami’s series Win Probability through Game 1.

May 31, 2011

## Biggest NBA Finals Collapses, 1992-2010

Biggest NBA Finals Collapses, 1992-2010: BBR’s Neil Paine introduces a series win probability metric and ranks the worst Finals chokes since 1992.

May 26, 2011

## Phillies Win A Statistically Improbable Game

Phillies Win A Statistically Improbable Game: At Crashburn Alley, Bill Baer takes you through the win probability metrics from Wednesday’s crazy 19-inning Phillies-Reds game.