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August 23, 2011

Peyton Hillis Is Undervalued Because People Believe in Curses and Flukes: At TBL, Jason Lisk analyzes several reasons why would-be fantasy owners might be (foolishly) holding back on drafting Hillis.

August 19, 2011

Greinke’s Results, Processes Match Up: Baseball Analytics’ David Golebiewski writes about how Zack Greinke’s early-season peripherals foretold his improved second-half ERA.

August 18, 2011

Regression to the Mean and Beta Distributions: From 3-D Baseball, a lesson in regression to the mean using Bayes’ Theorem with a Beta distribution as the prior.

Selling High: David Pinto of Baseball Analytics writes about how, given each player’s unsustainable BABIP, the Astros sold on Hunter Pence and Michael Bourn at just the right time.

August 17, 2011

The Tango method of regression to the mean — a proof: Phil Birnbaum of Sabermetric Research works through the nuts and bolts of Tangotiger’s method of regressing winning percentage towards the mean.

August 16, 2011

CHFF on Team Red-Zone Regression, Jerry Rice’s Place in History: At the CHFF, read about teams whose red-zone performance will regress (and progress) to the mean in 2011, and the unassailable nature of Jerry Rice’s records.

August 10, 2011

A Thought About Eli Manning’s League Leading Interceptions: At The Big Lead, Jason Lisk writes about Eli Manning — specifically, why his monster INT total last year is due for some heavy-duty regression-to-the-mean in 2011.

August 2, 2011

Robinson Cano and Home Run Derby curse ($): ESPN’s Peter Keating explains why Regression to the Mean — and not a supposed “curse” — causes HR Derby participants to hit for less power after the All-Star break.

July 28, 2011

Panthers up, Raiders down: CHFF’s Adam Dombrolowski uses the Plexiglas Principle to dampen Oakland’s optimism for 2011, while the Panthers are due for some positive regression to the mean.

July 27, 2011

Using (Bad) Luck To Your Advantage: A Retrospective: Early in the season, Roto Hardball’s Michael Barr identified positive regression-to-the-mean candidates by comparing their xBABIPs to their actual BABIPs… Now he looks back at whether the predicted improvements actually happened.

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July 25, 2011

Breakout Or Fakeout?: There’s a Stat For That chronicles teams that “broke out” since 1980… How many actually kept the gains in future seasons?

July 22, 2011

Checking in on the Early Season Regression Candidates: In April, BtB’s Bill Petti identified players whose early numbers were heavily impacted by luck (or the lack thereof)… Now it’s time to check in and see if those predictions of regression to the mean proved true, or if there was actual skill involved in the early-season performances.

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Consistency Is Inconsistent: Eric Seidman of Fangraphs weighs in on “consistency”, one of the most misunderstood (and certainly misused) terms in baseball.

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July 20, 2011

The Pittsburgh Pirates Unfortunately Remind Me of the 2003 Royals: Amid all the excitement about the 2011 Pirates, The Big Lead’s Jason Lisk draws a comparison between them and the ’03 Royals.

Perusing one run games: THT’s Kevin Lai takes his shot at a question sabermetricians have asked for decades: how much skill is involved in winning a one-run game?

July 18, 2011

Forward G, A, Pts, +/-, PIM reliability and Regression to the mean: From Arctic Ice Hockey, a look at the reliability of forward A, Pts, +/-, and PIM rates… How much should we regress each to the mean?

July 15, 2011

Adam Dunn’s 2nd Half Rebound: Fangraphs’ Jeff Zimmerman found formerly-productive players with comparably disastrous 1st-halves to Adam Dunn in 2011, looking at how they did in the 2nd half (and beyond).

July 13, 2011

Some Regression This Way Comes: The Platoon Advantage highlights the leading candidates for second-half regressions to the mean at each position.

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July 8, 2011

Slump or Dump – Jayson Werth: Roto Hardball’s Peter Christensen analyzes how Werth’s 2011 drop-off impacts his expectations going forward.

July 7, 2011

What do QBs control?: Great post from Outside the Hashes, looking at how long it takes for certain QB rate stats to stabilize.

July 6, 2011

San Diego Chargers May Have Failed in 2010, But it Shouldn’t Carry Over into 2011: Jason Lisk of The Big Lead looks at how talented teams who fail to make the playoffs — like the 2010 Chargers — tend to do the following season.

June 15, 2011

Regressing or reverting?: At THT, Jonathan Halket discusses “mean reversion”.

June 7, 2011

In-season PECOTA updates: Colin Wyers of BP introduces in-season PECOTA updates, and compares its regression-to-the-mean component to that of ZiPS.

June 6, 2011

Here Comes Carl Crawford: At Fangraphs, Jack Moore traces Carl Crawford’s inevitable path back to his previous form.

June 1, 2011

Missing the Net, Redux: BtN’s Gabe Desjardins looks at whether players have a knack for consistently hitting or missing the net.

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May 31, 2011

Team Even Strength Shooting Talent: Shooting % talent estimates from Objective NHL.

May 16, 2011

The Rays And Regression: 2011 xBABIP Notables: At DRaysBay, Bradley Woodrum finds Tampa players whose BABIP is dramatically different from their xBABIP.

April 27, 2011

Regress, Regress I Say!: An In-Season Batter Regression Calculator, courtesy of Bill Petti and BtB.

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April 26, 2011

Ready to Regress: Kevin Pelton of BBall Prospectus ID’s the playoff teams most likely to take a step backwards next season.

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April 22, 2011

Bayes, Regression, and the Red Sox

3-D Baseball teaches us about Bayes’ Theorem via the 2011 Boston Red Sox. Link

April 13, 2011

Regression and Albert Pujols’ Slump

Steve Slowinski of Fangraphs on what a bad start says about true talent going forward. Link