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August 16, 2011

Hockey Is Deterministic And Luck-Based: From Pension Plan Puppets, an attempt to work through what “luck” means in hockey.

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August 5, 2011

Half-a-season of NBA? Great idea!: Although admittedly not an NBA fan, Tangotiger has a point when it comes to randomness and the NBA… Pro basketball is so inherently deterministic that 32 NBA games is the equivalent of 162 MLB games in terms of W-L matching true talent levels, with the leftover 50 games amounting to little more than overkill. So an abbreviated lockout season would actually bring the NBA more in line with baseball and hockey when it comes to balancing drama with determinism in the standings.

August 2, 2011

Now Available: Hitter Volatility Calculator: At BtB, Bill Petti follows up on his player volatility research by creating a “Volatility Calculator” — input a player’s wOBA, ISO, K%, and BB%, and see what their predicted Volatility score is.

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July 25, 2011

Bucketing Outcomes in Baseball (and Beyond): From BtB’s Bill Petti, here’s a great illustration of the roles played by skill, environment, and luck in various baseball outcomes.

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May 27, 2011

xkcd: Sports: Funny, but sadly true.

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May 6, 2011

Anatomy of a Loss: Variance in Orlando’s Shooting: ElGee of Back Picks looks at the Magic’s high-risk, high-reward shooting style.

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‘Stabilizing’ Statistics: Interpreting Early Season Results: Steve Slowinski looks at early-season standouts in the stats that have already stabilized.

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May 4, 2011

Cascade Failure: A philosophical post, from colintj of South Side Sox, about the intersection of biomechanics, psychology, and probability theory.

April 22, 2011

Tim Thomas Doesn’t Give B’s Big Edge

HPro’s Philip Myrland on how luck can overwhelm even the best goalies in a 7-game series. Link

Eight, Ten, Here We Go Again

BP’s Tommy Bennett assesses MLB’s expanded playoff proposal. And at Fangraphs, Joe Pawlikowski offers up an alternative

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April 20, 2011

The Luck Loserboard

Fangraphs’ Bradley Woodrum lists the unluckiest hitters so far. Link

April 19, 2011

Projecting rest-of-season performance for early-season surprises

Writing for ESPN Insider, Dan Szymborski attempts to sort out early-season flukes from real trends. Link

April 15, 2011

For Once, Fortune Smiles on Cleveland

At FanGraphs, Steve Slowinski breaks down Cleveland’s lucky start. Link

April 13, 2011

When Brackets Collapse

BBPro’s John Gasaway ponders the meaning of an unusually mad March. Link

Wishing for Better Playoff Systems

At FanGraphs, Jonah Keri discusses the delicate balance of determinism and randomness in any playoff system. Link

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April 8, 2011

Power Play research

JLikens of Objective NHL looks at how much of the observed difference in team PP ability is due to randomness. Link

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