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August 26, 2011

Ichiro’s 200 – Figuring the Odds: Don Malcolm of Big Bad Baseball analyzes Ichiro’s chances of getting 54 hits in the next 33 games (and thus extending his streak of consecutive 200-hit seasons to 11).

August 22, 2011

How much time does Duncan have left?: Zach Lowe looks at the history of big men in Tim Duncan’s current age range for clues about how much the Big Fundamental has left in his tank.

Is Prospect Potential Realized? ($): BP’s Derek Carty studied whether top prospects (per Baseball America’s annual list) were more likely to exceed their Marcel projections than non-prospects.

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August 18, 2011

The Seattle Mariners Should Hit Better: According to Bradley Woodrum’s defense-independent ShH (“Should Hit”) metric, Seattle is due for some offensive progression toward the mean.

Turning ‘em Loose ($): BP’s Derek Carty takes his research on managerial SBA effects and sees if it would help predict players’ SBA rates in 2011.

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Predicting Adam Jones’ development as a hitter: At MASN’s Orioles Buzz blog, Daniel Moroz writes about what the future may hold for Jones at the plate.

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August 16, 2011

Projecting the next 600-home run hitter ($): At ESPN, Dan Szymborski uses the ZiPS projection system to put odds on the next candidates vying for 600-HR Club membership.

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August 3, 2011

Why does PECOTA love Felix and hate Verlander?: At The Book, Tango opens up PECOTA’s hood and wonders why the projection system considers Felix Hernandez more valuable than Justin Verlander going forward.

July 29, 2011

Top 100 Aftermath: The BP crew discuss Drew Cannon’s list of the 100 best players in D-I college hoops.

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July 28, 2011

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins – Comparables: Scott Reynolds of The Copper & Blue looks for players statistically similar to the Edmonton prospect.

Rasmus The Blue Jay: THT’s Jeffrey Gross projects what Rasmus’ future might hold, now that he’s been traded to Toronto.

July 27, 2011

Oliver production notes: At THT, Brian Cartwright explains some of the mechanics behind the Oliver Projection System’s forecasts.

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July 26, 2011

Kyle Orton is Available, and Teams Should Be Calling Now: As TBL’s Jason Lisk writes, Orton has gone from overrated to underrated. History says Orton will produce better over the next 5 years than Kevin Kolb or a rookie top-5 pick at QB.

Under-28 players on HOF career tracks ($): Writing for ESPN Insider, BBTF’s Dan Szymborski uses projected ZiPS WAR to set the odds that today’s young stars will make the Hall of Fame.

July 25, 2011

Fastball Velocity and Phil Hughes: At Roto Hardball, Eno Sarris projects Hughes’ second-half ERA using his fastball velocity data.

D-I’s Top 100 Players (#1-10): At BP, the final installment of Drew Cannon’s NCAA player rankings series.

Players who seemingly “lost their power” for no apparent reason: From Mitchel Lichtman and The Book, a brief, Bayesian discussion about estimating players’ true talent and incorporating new information into prior talent estimates.

July 22, 2011

D-I’s Top 100 Players (#11-20): The latest from BP’s Drew Cannon in his quest to rank the top 100 players in D-I college basketball.

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July 18, 2011

2011 Trade Value – #20-#11: Dave Cameron posts the latest installment of Fangraphs’ trade value player rankings.

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Biggest Improvements This Season (So Far): There’s a Stat For That lists the teams whose 2011 winning percentages outpace their 2008-2010 averages by the widest margins.

D-I’s Top 100 Players (#21-35): BP’s Drew Cannon continues ranking college players according to his projections for 2012.

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A midseason look at this season’s awards: THT’s Vince Caramela uses rest-of-season Oliver projections to see who’s on track for some hardware come November.

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July 15, 2011

Adam Dunn’s 2nd Half Rebound: Fangraphs’ Jeff Zimmerman found formerly-productive players with comparably disastrous 1st-halves to Adam Dunn in 2011, looking at how they did in the 2nd half (and beyond).

July 14, 2011

D-I’s Top 100 Players (#36-50): More from BP’s Drew Cannon as he attempts to rank the top 100 players in D-I basketball.

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Resetting the Division Races ($): BP checks in on the division races in the American League and National League with the help of PECOTA’s playoff odds.

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July 13, 2011

D-I’s Top 100 Players, #51-70: Drew Cannon of BP continues to rank the top players in D-I hoops.

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2011 Trade Value — #40-#36: Fangraphs’ Dave Cameron presents the latest installment in the site’s annual trade value rankings. (See also: #46-#41 and #50-#46)

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July 12, 2011

D-I’s Top 100 Players (#71-100): With some help from his freshman projection system, BP’s Drew Cannon begins to rank D-I’s top players.

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What’s Next For Derek Jeter?: At Seamheads.com, Mike Lynch channels his inner Bill James, using the Favorite Toy and Brock2 to project the rest of Jeter’s career.

July 8, 2011

Projecting Freshman Performance: BP’s Drew Cannon comes up with a system to project an incoming freshman’s performance level based on his recruiting ranking out of high school, age, and size.

Slump or Dump – Jayson Werth: Roto Hardball’s Peter Christensen analyzes how Werth’s 2011 drop-off impacts his expectations going forward.

July 7, 2011

Sophomore Projections ($): At BP, Kevin Pelton uses the SCHOENE Projection System to set 2012 expectations for last year’s rookie crop.

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July 6, 2011

The Latest From Basketball Prospectus ($): BP’s John Gasaway looks at the 5 Most Underrated Players in Division I, while Kevin Pelton uses translated college stats to predict NBA numbers for next year’s rookie class.

July 5, 2011

Setting the Line–Mid-season Update: At BP, Ken Funck looks at players who defied the preseason over/unders on their individual stats.

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June 30, 2011

All-Star Game — Reward or Showcase?: The great debate at Fangraphs? Whether the ASG should be a reward for a great 1st half of the season, or showcase of the expected “true” best players going forward.

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June 29, 2011

Projecting the 2011-2012 Flyers’ lineup and production: Some advanced-stat projections for next year’s Flyers squad, courtesy of Broad Street Hockey.

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Vlad Guerrero, FVHOFRCUH: Baltimore picked up Vladi because he was supposedly a “Feared, Veteran, Hall of Fame, Real Clean-Up Hitter”. Daniel Moroz had his doubts about this before the season, and at Camden Crazies he looks at how short Guerrero has fallen compared to preseason expectations.

June 28, 2011

Who’s an All-Star?: In determining All-Stars, should we focus on performance in 2011 so far, or expectced performance going forward? Luckily, THT tackles the issue from both angles.

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June 24, 2011

Rating the Draft: Kevin Pelton of BP rates teams according to the projected value in WARP of the players they picked relative to what you’d expect from their draft slot.

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June 22, 2011

Nick Markakis, 3,000 Hit Club Member?: At BtB, Chris St. John engages in a little Favorite Toy-style exercise to look for the most likely players to follow Derek Jeter into the 3,000-Hit Club.

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June 21, 2011

What GMs don’t know about the NBA Draft: Grantland’s Ben Cohen writes about the somewhat futile endeavors of scouts and statheads alike to project the potential of a draft prospect.

Is age a factor in the NBA draft?: At TrueHoop, Peter Newmann and Dean Oliver look at a player’s draft age as a predictor of future success — there is a definite trend that younger, highly drafted players have more success than older ones.

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June 20, 2011

Hollinger’s Draft Rater: ESPN’s John Hollinger posts his statistical ranking of this year’s draft prospects.

When Pitchers’ Stats Stabilize: Derek Carty of BP follows up on his research about batters with another study, this time testing how much of a sample is needed for pitcher stats to become indicative of true skill.

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June 17, 2011

Will Jimmer’s skills translate to next level?: Peter Newmann and Dean Oliver of ESPN assess Jimmer Fredette’s NBA readiness.

Making the comparison: Dustin Ackley: THT’s Jeff Moore tries to find historical comparables for Ackley.

June 16, 2011

How Low Can Josh Beckett Go?: At Roto Hardball, a look at how much of Josh Beckett’s scorching start is actually sustainable.

June 14, 2011

Improving from Within ($): BBall Prospectus’ Kevin Pelton offers an early projection for the Miami Heat in 2012.

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June 10, 2011

After Jeter Reaches 3,000 Hits, Who’s Likely Next?: At the NY Times, Neil Paine uses Bill James’ Favorite Toy to estimate the probabilities of active players reaching 3,000 hits.

June 9, 2011

Statistical Review of the First Three Rounds of the Rule IV Draft: At DRaysBay, Jason Hanselman determines who got the most expected WAR out of this week’s draft, based on both draft pick #s and Baseball America prospect rankings.

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June 8, 2011

Top 100 NHL Draft Prospects: 1-5: The top of Corey Pronman’s prospect rankings at Hockey Prospectus.

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Do PECOTA Percentiles make any sense?: At the Book Blog, Tango present the case why PECOTA Percentiles are wrong.

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Are systems too optimistic in forecasting star pitchers?: Tangotiger asks the question of PECOTA, ZiPS, and Oliver.

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June 7, 2011

WAR – Pre-season Forecast vs. Current Full-year Forecast: Greg Tamer of THT lists the players who have under- and over-performed their WAR forecasts the most in 2011 so far.

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In-season PECOTA updates: Colin Wyers of BP introduces in-season PECOTA updates, and compares its regression-to-the-mean component to that of ZiPS.

June 6, 2011

Projecting Ricky Rubio: Canis Hoopus tries to establish an expectation for Rubio’s NBA stats.

June 2, 2011

Fluke watch: Jhoulys Chacin: Josh Smolow of THT looks at the data to determine whether the changes Chacin made for 2011 are sustainable.

June 1, 2011

Has Billy Butler Reached His Offensive Peak?: At Royals Review, Jeff Zimmerman applies his recent work on aging curves to Butler.

Spaghetti Baseball: John Sickels of Minor League Ball on the similarities (for better or for worse) between weather forecasting and player forecasting.

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Quiz results: Bautista bombs: How many home runs THT readers think Jose Bautista will end up with.

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Nick Markakis’ Tumble: Camden Crazies’ Daniel Moroz looks at what might have been for Markakis following a 5.5-WAR 2008… and what has actually happened since then.

May 31, 2011

Hitter Aging Curves: Jeff Zimmerman of BtB looks at how age impacts a player’s RAA, including different curves for different “types” of players.

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May 27, 2011

Does Hockey Math Work?: Derek Zona revisits preseason projections at The Copper & Blue.

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How much should you care for BABIP vagaries?: THT’s Max Marchi presents a formula to assess how much a pitcher’s ERA can be affected by his BABIP fluctuations.

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May 21, 2011

Top 100 NHL Draft Prospects: Introduction: Corey Pronman introduces Hockey Prospectus’ inaugural list of the Top 100 NHL Draft Eligible Prospects. (See #91-100 here.)

May 18, 2011

Derek Jeter: History Told You So: Tom Tango on forecasting, uncertainty, and what we think about Jeter’s value now.

Meet Your Angels Blogger: Sean Smith: Halos Heaven interviews Sean Smith, inventor of B-R WAR and the CHONE projection system.

May 12, 2011

Projecting how much the Boston Celtics’ Big Three have left: Writing for ESPN Insider, Kevin Pelton looks at the future of the Celtics following last night’s playoff ouster.

May 11, 2011

Trevor Cahill tells statheads to shove it: OK, not really. But David Schoenfield looks at how Cahill has been able to avoid the decline DIPS theorists predicted going into 2011.

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April 27, 2011

Does a player’s speech predict how he’ll perform in the NFL?: Michael Agger of Slate Magazine puts the spotlight on a company that tries to tie language patterns to performance.

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Regress, Regress I Say!: An In-Season Batter Regression Calculator, courtesy of Bill Petti and BtB.

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April 25, 2011

Is Jose Bautista the Best Hitter in the AL?

With an assist from ZiPS, that’s the question on Dave Cameron’s mind at FanGraphs. Link

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April 22, 2011

Bayes, Regression, and the Red Sox

3-D Baseball teaches us about Bayes’ Theorem via the 2011 Boston Red Sox. Link

April 20, 2011

Lewin Career Forecast v2.0

Aaron Schatz of Football Outsiders presents the new version of their college QB projection system. Link

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April 19, 2011

Projecting rest-of-season performance for early-season surprises

Writing for ESPN Insider, Dan Szymborski attempts to sort out early-season flukes from real trends. Link

April 18, 2011

Estimating True Talent in Past Years

Writing at Fangraphs Community Research, Matt Crawford develops a way to estimate a player’s true talent in a given historical season. Link

April 15, 2011

What Two Weeks Can Do To Your ZiPS Projection

BtB’s Satchel Price checks out who raised their in-season ZiPS the most since Opening Day. Link

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April 14, 2011

ZiPS In-Season Projections

David Appelman of Fangraphs points out that the site now has in-season ZiPS projections. Link

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April 13, 2011

Regression and Albert Pujols’ Slump

Steve Slowinski of Fangraphs on what a bad start says about true talent going forward. Link

April 11, 2011

SackSEER revisited

Nathan Forster of Football Outsiders evaluates 2010 SackSEER projections and looks ahead to 2011. Link

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April 7, 2011

Should Sox panic yet?

Dave Cameron of FanGraphs weighs in on the 0-6 situation in Boston. One the one hand, a 6-game sample shouldn’t change evaluations of their talent level. On the other hand, they’ve dug a hole already, erasing any advantage they had over the Yankees on talent before the season. Link