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August 29, 2011

How the Hell do the Angels Keep Winning?: At Grantland, Jonah Keri takes a look at Los Angaheim’s ability to consistently outpace statheads’ expectations.

August 26, 2011

2011 ACC & Big 12 Simulations from WhatIfSports: WhatIfSports ran the 2011 ACC and Big 12 through their simulator.

August 24, 2011

If the Season Ended Yesterday – Yankees Over Phillies: At Beyond the Box Score, J-Doug runs Baseball Prospectus’ and FanGraphs’ true talent estimates through a Log5-based postseason simulator.

August 18, 2011

What 2008 and 2009 Tell Us About the 2011 Panthers: TBL’s Jason Lisk looks for similar historical teams that fit Carolina’s profile in 2011 — teams that were ghastly the year before, but above-average in the 2 seasons before that.

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August 12, 2011

The Transfer Price Index 2011/12 Premier League Predictions: At Pay As You Play, we see what the 2012 EPL season will have in store for each team (according to Zach Slaton’s predictive model).

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August 10, 2011

The 2011 New Orleans Saints, SB Favorites?: PFR’s Chase Stuart writes about why the Saints — not the Packers, not the Eagles — are his preseason favorites to come out of the NFC.

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July 26, 2011

Under-28 players on HOF career tracks ($): Writing for ESPN Insider, BBTF’s Dan Szymborski uses projected ZiPS WAR to set the odds that today’s young stars will make the Hall of Fame.

July 22, 2011

New SIERA, Part Five – What Didn’t Work: Finishing his series on the new version of SIERA, Fangraphs’ Matt Swartz talks about the component stats he didn’t incorporate into the model.

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Checking in on the Early Season Regression Candidates: In April, BtB’s Bill Petti identified players whose early numbers were heavily impacted by luck (or the lack thereof)… Now it’s time to check in and see if those predictions of regression to the mean proved true, or if there was actual skill involved in the early-season performances.

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July 5, 2011

Setting the Line–Mid-season Update: At BP, Ken Funck looks at players who defied the preseason over/unders on their individual stats.

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June 30, 2011

Saves Aren’t Very Predictive, 2011 Edition: BtB’s Justin Bopp confirms what we all already knew — that there’s practically no relationship between a reliever’s FIP and his save total.

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June 22, 2011

Predicting Rory: At The Sports Economist, Brian Goff tries to cut through the hyperbolic noise (positive now, negative in April) surrounding Rory McIlroy’s potential as a golfer.

June 13, 2011

5 years of TrueHoop’s Stat Geek Smackdown: From Weak Side Awareness, a fun look at the best competitors in Henry Abbott’s annual pick’em contest.

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June 8, 2011

Hockey Math Works, Part II: Derek Zona of the Copper & Blue tells a story about a prediction contest between a stathead and an anti-stats writer… Can you guess who won?

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June 2, 2011

What the regular season really means ($): The Heat are proving how much regular-season head-to-head records really mean, writes John Hollinger at ESPN.

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May 31, 2011

Using Ordinal Logistic Regression to Predict EPL Match Outcome Probabilities: A new regression-based way to predict football matches, from A Beautiful Numbers Game.

Stanley Cup Final Probabilities: Canucks-Bruins predictions from Hockey Numbers and Objective NHL.

May 26, 2011

Lisk on Future Winners, Payton vs. Brown: Good stuff from Jason Lisk at The Big Lead today… First, he predicted which NFL Franchises will win the most over the next 5 years. Then, he made the case that Walter Payton is the GOAT among RBs.

Can you predict a new park to have a neutral factor?: Thread at The Book Blog about initial predictions for a new park’s factor.

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May 18, 2011

Quantifying Intangibles: From John Ezekowitz and the Harvard College Sports Analysis Collective, a new way to predict the NCAA Tournament.

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May 12, 2011

When Do Standings Actually Matter?: BtB welcomes Chris St. John, who looks at data from 1998-2010 to determine how well the standings predict future W-L at various points in the season.

May 6, 2011

Underestimated Mavs: How everyone missed on the Mavs, by BBPro’s Kevin Pelton.

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April 29, 2011

Updated Playoff Odds: Just what it sounds like, via Nathan Walker and the BBall Distribution.

Predicting the Next Jose Bautista: Part I, Explaining HR Change: Bill Petti of BtB looks for ways to predict abrupt power surges.

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April 26, 2011

A Gambler’s Grind in the NBA: David Hill of Negative Dunkalectics profiles gambler-turned-NBA-consultant-turned-gambler Haralabos Voulgaris.

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Ready to Regress: Kevin Pelton of BBall Prospectus ID’s the playoff teams most likely to take a step backwards next season.

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April 25, 2011

The Hornets Did Not Surprise in the Regular Season

David Berri of The Wages of Wins Journal notes that New Orleans’ regular-season record wasn’t really surprising. Link

April 22, 2011

Lottery to Playoffs

BBPro’s Kevin Pelton lists the lottery teams most likely to make the leap next season. Link

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April 20, 2011

Hockey Numbers mini series summaries

Chris Boersma from Hockey Numbers updated his blog with mini series stat capsules. Link

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April 18, 2011

Heat vs. Lakers in the NBA Finals?

John Hollinger gives his Finals prediction at ESPN. Link

April 15, 2011

For Once, Fortune Smiles on Cleveland

At FanGraphs, Steve Slowinski breaks down Cleveland’s lucky start. Link