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August 26, 2011

Most overrated/underrated players in NFL ($): FO’s Aaron Schatz looks at the Scouts Inc. player rankings, identifying players the scouts improperly valued.

August 24, 2011

Scouts Inc. 2011 player rankings: Scouts Inc. released their ranking of the top 200 NFL players at ESPN this week.

August 23, 2011

All About Overtime: SportsDelve’s Andrew McKillop compiles a complete record of NFL overtime for each team, and asks whether the NFL should use the playoff OT rule in the regular-season.

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Can Larry Fitzgerald break Jerry Rice’s receptions record?: PFR’s Chase Stuart looks at the pace Fitzgerald would have to maintain to have a shot at Rice’s all-time record for catches.

How Much Will — and Should — Chris Johnson Be Paid?: On the “how much will he paid?” front, TBL’s Jason Lisk says that CJ had better not expect Larry Fitzgerald money. Meanwhile, Brian Burke writes about the true value in wins of a boom-and-bust back like Johnson.

August 22, 2011

The football pythagorean expectation, and other analytics notes: From Code and Football, a look at the proper pythagorean exponent for football (among other topics).

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Mike Curtis – Canton In The Crosshairs: At MyHOFS, MJ Calabrese makes the case that 1960s/70s All-Pro LB Mike Curtis should be in the Hall of Fame.

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August 19, 2011

Viva Las Vegas – Sabermetrics in the Wasteland: What happens when a football stats guy packs up and moves to Vegas? Grantland’s Bill Barnwell is about to find out.

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Most Points Scored in a Pro Football Game / List of 60+ Point Games: SportsDelve’s Andrew McKillop researched the top scoring games across many different pro football leagues.

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FOA 2011 Now Available!: Football Outsiders’ yearly preview is out in electronic form today (hard copy coming next week).

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Blogging the NFL Rule Book – 2011 Changes: Quirky Research lists the differences in this year’s NFL rule book, compared to 2010.

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2011 Pittsburgh Steelers = The New Over-The-Hill Gang: Jason Lisk of TBL writes about the Steelers, and specifically their aging defense. Historically, what does starting a bunch of guys on the wrong side of 30 mean?

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‘Canes take NFL scoring by storm: Hank Gargiulo of ESPN Stats & Info writes about Miami’s remarkable streak — a Hurricanes alum has scored a touchdown in 139 consecutive NFL regular season weeks, dating back to Week 15 of 2002.

August 18, 2011

What 2008 and 2009 Tell Us About the 2011 Panthers: TBL’s Jason Lisk looks for similar historical teams that fit Carolina’s profile in 2011 — teams that were ghastly the year before, but above-average in the 2 seasons before that.

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August 17, 2011

Introducing The Win Probability Metric: CHFF takes their stab at an NFL win probability metric, and ranks 2010 offenses according to how much their drives increased the team’s probability of winning games.

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August 16, 2011

CHFF on Team Red-Zone Regression, Jerry Rice’s Place in History: At the CHFF, read about teams whose red-zone performance will regress (and progress) to the mean in 2011, and the unassailable nature of Jerry Rice’s records.

August 15, 2011

Last Undefeated Team / Winless Team in the NFL: Since 1970, Sportsdelve’s Andrew McKillop tracked the last team to be undefeated and winless in each NFL season.

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Early Returns On New Kickoff Rule: At the CHFF, Scott Kacsmar looks at what week 1 of the preseason might tell us about the season-long impact of the NFL’s new kickoff rule.

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A Thought About the Minnesota Vikings’ Offensive Collapse: At The Big Lead, Jason Lisk notes that Minnesota scored 189 fewer points in 2010 than in ’09. Historically, is there a “plexiglas principle”-type effect for teams whose offenses decline so sharply?

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August 12, 2011

QBR, ESPN’s Deeply Flawed Made-For-TV Stat: You knew this was coming… A post, by the CHFF’s Kevin Braig, vigorously defending passer rating.

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August 11, 2011

August 10, 2011

Four Decades of Super Bowl Quarterbacks: From the blog Slip and Tackle, an infographic (and accompanying data) regarding Super Bowl quarterbacks.

Flash Over Substance – DeSean Jackson and the Eagles: 74% of respondents to a recent ESPN poll think DeSean Jackson will be more valuable to Philly in 2011 than Nnamdi Asomugha, but Grantland’s Bill Barnwell points out that Jackson will be overrated until he improves his catch rate.

A Thought About Eli Manning’s League Leading Interceptions: At The Big Lead, Jason Lisk writes about Eli Manning — specifically, why his monster INT total last year is due for some heavy-duty regression-to-the-mean in 2011.

August 8, 2011

Football Analytics Primer (Part 1): The NFL Minds Blog writes about the history and current philosophies of modern NFL “sabermetrics”.

August 5, 2011

LT, TD big winners on ‘rusher rating’ list: At CHFF, Ken Crippen of the PFRA presents an era-normalized ‘rusher rating’ (based on the framework of the NFL’s passer rating formula) and ranks all-time RB performances.

More on ESPN’s Total Quarterback Rating: Dean Oliver explains more of the nuts and bolts of the new ESPN QB rating system; also, for an assessment of the methodology, read this Outside the Hashes post. UPDATE: And check out the discussion thread at Football Outsiders.

August 3, 2011

Formation Analysis – Number of RBs, Part I: FO’s Danny Tuccitto has game-charted stats on how often teams lined up with a certain number of RBs on the field (and how effective they were in those formations).

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2011 NFL win totals released by the Hilton ($): For those looking to compare projection systems to the Vegas numbers, ESPN’s Chad Millman posted the Hilton’s team-by-team season win over-unders.

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Who will next year’s Hall of Famers be?: Writing for CHFF, Scott Kacsmar handicaps next year’s Pro Football Hall of Fame class.

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August 2, 2011

Who won the QB derby? ($): ESPN’s KC Joyner uses his quarterback metrics to decide which teams made themselves better (or worse) in last week’s mad QB scramble.

Undefeated/Winless in NFL Preseason Play: SportsDelve.com’s Andrew McKillop looked at each franchise’s historical instances of going undefeated or winless in the preseason.

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Pro football’s Hall of Very Good (yes, it exists!): At Cold Hard Football Facts, researcher Ken Crippen writes about the PFRA’s official “Hall of Very Good”.

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July 29, 2011

Greatest Cornerback Tandems of All-Time: In light of a possible Nnamdi Asomugha-Darrelle Revis pairing in New York, The Big Lead’s Jason Lisk looks at other great CB tandems throughout history.

July 28, 2011

NFL Under-25 Organization Rankings ($): FO’s Danny Tuccitto ranks every NFL team based on how they acquire and cultivate young talent.

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Panthers up, Raiders down: CHFF’s Adam Dombrolowski uses the Plexiglas Principle to dampen Oakland’s optimism for 2011, while the Panthers are due for some positive regression to the mean.

There’s More Than One Way To Get a Winning Quarterback: The Big Lead’s Jason Lisk looked at how teams acquired their starting QBs (since 1995), and how successful each archetype was.

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July 27, 2011

2011 NFL Free Agent Tracker: PFR has a master list of free agents, along with their career and 3-year Approximate Value totals, that is constantly updated to reflect new signings.

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Ranking the top 10 prospects in the NFL ($): At ESPN, Aaron Schatz and Bill Barnwell unveil the top 10 of their annual prospect rankings.

July 26, 2011

Kyle Orton is Available, and Teams Should Be Calling Now: As TBL’s Jason Lisk writes, Orton has gone from overrated to underrated. History says Orton will produce better over the next 5 years than Kevin Kolb or a rookie top-5 pick at QB.

Ravens Shedding Some Feathers: With Baltimore cutting Derrick Mason and Willis McGahee, Drive-By Football’s Keith Goldner looks at their expected points and efficiency statistics from recent seasons.

Ranking the top 25 prospects in the NFL, Nos. 11-25 ($): At ESPN Insider, Aaron Schatz and Bill Barnwell present the first installment of their annual NFL prospect rankings.

July 25, 2011

Coaching Trees & Training Camps: SportsDelve’s Andrew McKillop concludes his series on NFL Coaching Trees, and updates his historical NFL training-camp location data.

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Interception Returns for Scores: At The Big Lead, Jason Lisk researched how often teams win when scoring each type of non-offensive touchdown, and the typical score situation in which they occur.

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July 21, 2011

Catch Rate, 2010 WR: At Drive-By Football, a brief look at how well a wide receiver’s catch rate (catches per target) correlate to net expected points added.

Don’t Be Fooled By Age and Previous Year’s Beauty: Apropos of fantasy football, Jason Lisk of The Big Lead examines RB aging patterns to help identify the riskiest runners to avoid.

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NFL Coaching Trees, Pt. 3 – In the NFL: At SportsDelve.com, Andrew McKillop continues his series on NFL coaching trees by tracking the connections current coaches made while working as an NFL assistant.

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Five Teams Endangered by Free Agency ($): These teams could be in deep trouble when the lockout ends and their free agents scatter, FO’s Rivers McCown writes at ESPN.

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July 20, 2011

NFL Coaching Trees: SportsDelve’s Andrew McKillop is researching NFL coaching trees in his newest series of posts. In Part 1 he looks at coaches’ experience levels as players, and in Part 2 he breaks down the connections current NFL head coaches made as assistant coaches/graduate assistants in the college ranks.

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NFL free agents you meet in hell: At Grantland, Bill Barnwell put together a list of free agent archetypes that almost never produce at a level commensurate with their pay.

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Assessing the Blame on Sacks — QB or Offensive Line?: At NFL Minds, a look at which QBs hold the ball too long, and how that translates to their sack numbers.

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July 18, 2011

Formation Analysis – Number of WRs Part II: Danny Tuccitto continues FO’s series on team WR formation tendencies and their effectiveness in each set.

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Roethlisberger is More Like Manning Than You Think: From CHFF, a statistical comparison between Peyton Manning and Ben Roethlisberger.

The Giants’ 2011 OL eerily resembles the Cowboys’ OL of 2010: Jimmy Kempski of Blogging the bEast calculated opening-day ages (to the day) for every NFL O-lineman. In the process, he found that the Giants have by far the oldest line in football, just as Dallas did a year ago.

July 15, 2011

Schools With the Most Pro Head Coaches: SportsDelve.com’s Andrew McKillop looks at which schools’ coaches most often turn into NFL head coaches.

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July 14, 2011

Are the Colts finished?: NFL Minds lists the various statistical reasons why the Colts are far from washed up in 2011.

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July 12, 2011

Most Improved Passing Offenses Involving Rookie Quarterbacks: Jason Lisk of The Big Lead lists the offenses whose passing games improved the most with a rookie QB at the helm.

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Top 10 NFL draft steals that failed ($): At ESPN, FO’s Rivers McCown lists the top 10 cases where a player looked like a draft-day steal, only to play down to (or below) his draft slot.

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NFL Kickoff Rule Modification Shouldn’t Hurt Returners, but Blows Up Kicker Market: LiveBall Sports’ Greg Trippiedi writes about the potential consequences of the NFL’s new policy of kicking off from the 35 instead of the 30. (PFR’s Chase Stuart wrote about this topic as well in March.)

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The 25 Least Valuable Players in the NFL: Just what it sounds like, via Bill Barnwell and Grantland.

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Can the Jets Win the Super Bowl in 2011?: CHFF’s Kennedy Ross has stats that say the Jets don’t measure up to championship standards.

July 11, 2011

Setting Expectations for 2011 Rookie QBs: The Big Lead’s Jason Lisk looks at how rookie QBs from each round have historically performed, and what it might mean for the Class of 2011.

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Weirdly Depressed Offensive Years in Pro Football since the USFL Era Passing Explosion: Continuing his research into the NFL’s offensive eras, Liveball Sports’ Greg Trippiedi examines years where league-wide scoring didn’t follow its general upward trend since the 1980s.

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Most Efficient Quarterbacks, 2010: Keith Goldner of Drive-By Football ranks the 2010 QBs according to Net Expected Points.

Formation Analysis – Number of WRs Part I: FO’s Danny Tuccitto presents game-charted data on how often each offense used various numbers of WRs in 2010.

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Can Big Play Eagles win the Super Bowl?: CHFF’s Ian Roderick uses passer rating differential (among other stats) to judge Philly’s chances in 2011.

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July 8, 2011

Three-and-Outs Forced: FO’s Aaron Schatz lists the teams that forced the most 3-and-outs per opposing drive in 2010.

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July 7, 2011

What The Top 100 in the NFL Would Look Like If It Was Based on Pay: Jason Lisk of The Big Lead compares the distribution of the Top 100 of 2011 to that of the players with the 100 biggest cap hits.

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What do QBs control?: Great post from Outside the Hashes, looking at how long it takes for certain QB rate stats to stabilize.

July 6, 2011

The numbers that defined 2010 — 1,448: Was Brandon Lloyd (and his 1,448 receiving yards) the beneficiary of a fluke season in 2010? CHFF takes a closer look.

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San Diego Chargers May Have Failed in 2010, But it Shouldn’t Carry Over into 2011: Jason Lisk of The Big Lead looks at how talented teams who fail to make the playoffs — like the 2010 Chargers — tend to do the following season.

July 5, 2011

Are Changes in NYPA a Strong Measure of the Strength of Passing Environments?: Greg Trippiedi of LiveBall Sports looks at the relationship between the average QB’s net YPA and league-wide passing environments.

Bill Belichick was a Really Good Coach with the Cleveland Browns: LiveBall Sports’ Greg Trippiedi sets the record straight on Belichick’s first NFL head coaching gig.

July 1, 2011

YAC attack: CHFF lists the receivers who did the most damage after they caught the football.

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June 30, 2011

Is Terrell Owens a Hall of Famer?: Jason Lisk of The Big Lead uses the concept of “Value over Baseline” to explain why it’s not smart to say we can’t compare modern WRs to ones from earlier, less-pass-happy eras.

June 29, 2011

The SEC vs the Miami Hurricanes: LiveBall Sports’ Greg Trippiedi examined the NFL’s Top 100 players of 2011 list, and found that Miami alone almost had as many players as the vaunted SEC.

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June 28, 2011

Drive-By Efficiency – Lions @ Bears, Week 1: From Drive-By Football, a sample drive-by-drive efficiency summary for last year’s Lions-Bears game in Week 1.

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June 27, 2011

Formation Analysis – 6OL Sets: FO’s Aaron Schatz used his game-charted data to list the teams that used 6-offensive linemen sets the most, and which ones were the most effective at it.

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Passer Rating Differential — The Most Important Stat? The Case Has Not Been Made Yet: Jason Lisk of The Big Lead questions CHFF’s assessment that team passer rating differential is “the Most Important Stat in football.”

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June 23, 2011

Blind Side Project Help: Ben Alamar of Analytic Football needs your help in collecting data for his Blind Side Project, an attempt to improve evaluation of individual offensive linemen.

June 22, 2011

Pass Tackles 2010: FO’s Aaron Schatz lists the defensive players who had the most tackles and stops on pass plays last season.

June 21, 2011

Analyzing the top 10 most disappointing fantasy seasons of the past 25 years ($): At ESPN Insider, FO’s Sean McCormick ranks the biggest fantasy busts in recent memory.

June 20, 2011

Lockout sure to burn blitzing, complex defenses: Writing for NBC Sports, FO’s Mike Tanier devised a “simplicity score” for defenses, to measure which teams will be hurt most by the lack of team preparation time during the lockout.

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Comparing 3 Great RB Seasons: NFL Minds compares the following running-back seasons: Priest Holmes, 2003; Shaun Alexander, 2005; LaDainian Tomlinson, 2006.

June 17, 2011

Having No Quarterback is Not an Excuse for Lack of Offensive Improvement: LiveBall Sports’ Greg Trippiedi looks at who is and isn’t being hurt by the inability to develop a quarterback.

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Passer Rating Differential: An, um, interesting look at the top historical teams by Passer Rating Differential from the Cold, Hard Football Facts.

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Why Joe Flacco is as good a quarterback as Philip Rivers ($): KC Joyner of ESPN compares Flacco’s YPA on deep passes to Rivers’, and finds that both have the ability to stretch the field even with questionable receiving talent.

June 15, 2011

The Number of Young Superstars and the Maturation of the NFL: The Big Lead’s Jason Lisk uses the percentage of young stars in a season to gauge the advancement of the league-wide talent pool.

Character Issues and Success: Andrew Mooney of the Harvard College Sports Analysis Collective looks for the effects of arrests on NFL player performance.

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The Massey-Thaler study and other value propositions: At Code and Football, thoughts about the Best Player Available strategy and how to improve the scouting/drafting process.

June 14, 2011

Broken Tackles 2010 Part II: FO’s Aaron Schatz flips around the broken tackle stat and looks at offensive players and teams who broke the most tackles.

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The Gridiron Uniform Database: A database of historical NFL uniforms.

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FOA 2011 and KUBIAK 2011: Football Outsiders news — when you can find their book and projections.

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The cost of an offense: From Code and Football, some thoughts on draft value, player valuation, and player development.

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June 13, 2011

Using Football Outsiders’ game charting data to evaluate 3rd & long playcalling: Just what it sounds like, from the Redskins blog Staying Medium.

NFL ORtg and DRtg: NFL Minds applies basketball’s per-possession stats to the NFL.

Offensive Efficiency and Points Scored: At Drive-By Football, Keith Goldner examines the relationship between offensive efficiency and raw points.

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Examining how Al Saunders tracks QB performance ($): At ESPN, Seth Wickersham writes about the mix of subjective and objective metrics that Oakland offensive coordinator Al Saunders uses to evaluate quarterbacks.

June 9, 2011

Expected Points Model: Keith Goldner of Drive-By Football explains his method of deriving expected points from the down, distance, and yard line.

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Ranking top 10 most disappointing free agents of past 25 years ($): Writing for ESPN, FO’s Brian McIntyre ranks the biggest free-agent flops of the last quarter-century.