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August 29, 2011

Redrafting the NBA – Round Five: Picks #33-40 in BP’s NBA fantasy draft/player rankings.

August 26, 2011

When Will the Pistons be Good Again?: Sport Skeptic looks at how long it takes for a team to make the playoffs again based on their winning percentage. His findings support the theory that it’s better to be either really good or really bad — mediocre teams that were in between had the longest waits.

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August 25, 2011

Redrafting the NBA – Round Four: Picks #25-32 in BP’s effort to rank the NBA’s Top 96 players in fantasy-draft form.

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NBA negotiations in a handy chart: TrueHoop’s Henry Abbott posted a neat graphic illustrating the offers made so far in the CBA negotiations.

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August 24, 2011

Redrafting the NBA – Round Three: Picks #17-24 in BP’s fantasy draft of current NBA players.

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August 23, 2011

Best and Worst Means Something Different for Each NBA Team: At the Wages of Wins Journal, David Berri writes about efficiency differential, looking at each team’s best and worst seasons by the metric since 1974.

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Redrafting the NBA, Round Two: Picks #9-16 in BP’s inaugural NBA player fantasy draft.

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Tracy McGrady’s Lost Season, 02-03: Hardwood Paroxysm’s Scott Leedy writes about T-Mac’s 2003 campaign, one of the most underrated all-time great seasons ever.

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August 22, 2011

Malcolm Gladwell on the NBA lockout: At Grantland, Malcolm Gladwell discusses the ‘psychic benefits’ of owning an NBA team, and why those can offset actual losses in the minds of some owners.

Redrafting the NBA: Rather than putting together a list of player rankings (like everyone else seems to be doing this offseason), BP’s staff will conduct a hypothetical draft of 96 NBA players… Here’s round one, picks #1-8.

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Fort Wayne Mad Ants Bring Sebastian Pruiti Aboard: Congrats to Sebastian Pruiti, who will be a member of the Fort Wayne Mad Ants’ basketball operations staff next season. His ability to combine traditional scouting with new metrics and video analysis is hopefully the new prototype for people being hired in basketball ops.

August 18, 2011

Some clarification of the Top 100 rankings: SI’s Zach Lowe resolves some of the confusion surrounding his player rankings.

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August 17, 2011

ESPN’s NBA Player Rankings: As everyone seems to be doing nowadays, ESPN.com and the TrueHoop Network are ranking the top players in the NBA… #401-500 are here, and #351-400 is in progress here.

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Highest Percentage of Games Started by Rookies: At BBR, Neil Paine lists the teams (since 1983) that gave the greatest % of their starts to rookies.

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August 16, 2011

Top 100 NBA Players (Nos. 1-10): At long last, the top ten in Zach Lowe’s Point Forward NBA player rankings.

Real minutes played: TrueHoop’s Henry Abbott writes about the leaders in “real” minutes played — that is, combined playoff and regular-season minutes. Beware hidden mileage!

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August 15, 2011

Top 100 NBA Players (Nos. 11-20): We’re almost at the top 10 of Zach Lowe’s Point Forward player rankings.

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August 10, 2011

Top 100 NBA Players (Nos. 21-30): SI’s Zach Lowe continues his ranking of the top 100 all-around NBAers at the moment.

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NBA Owners Do Not Understand Competitive Balance: At the Wages of Wins Journal, David Berri analyzes a statement from the owners that seems to be contradicted by recent league history.

August 9, 2011

Top 100 NBA Players (Nos. 31-40): The latest NBA player rankings from SI’ Zach Lowe.

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The Wages-of-Wins-iest Tandems: Andres Alvarez of The Wages of Wins looks at the top tandems at various combinations of positions, according to Wins Produced.

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August 8, 2011

Top 100 NBA Players (Nos. 41-50): More NBA player rankings from Zach Lowe and SI.

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Player Skill Rankings: At NBA Playbook, Sebastian Pruiti is using scouting, video analysis, and Synergy data to rank the NBA’s best at various skills. So far, he’s tackled pick & roll ballhandlers and post scorers.

August 5, 2011

Top 100 NBA Players, Pt. V (Nos. 51-60): SI’s Zach Lowe is halfway through his ranking of the NBA’s top players at this very moment.

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Half-a-season of NBA? Great idea!: Although admittedly not an NBA fan, Tangotiger has a point when it comes to randomness and the NBA… Pro basketball is so inherently deterministic that 32 NBA games is the equivalent of 162 MLB games in terms of W-L matching true talent levels, with the leftover 50 games amounting to little more than overkill. So an abbreviated lockout season would actually bring the NBA more in line with baseball and hockey when it comes to balancing drama with determinism in the standings.

Top 100 NBA Players, Pt. IV (Nos. 61-70): Zach Lowe of SI’s Point Forward has the latest installment of his NBA player rankings.

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August 4, 2011

The Top 25 peak players (*according to wins produced): The Wages of Wins’ James Brocato ranked players’ peaks based on their 6 best Wins Produced seasons.

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August 3, 2011

Top 100 NBA Players, Pt. III (Nos. 71-80): SI’s Zach Lowe continues his ranking of the league’s top 100 players.

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High School Recruiting Ranking vs. NBA Success: BBR’s Neil Paine looks at how often players of a certain high school recruiting ranking end up with a certain quality of NBA career.

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August 2, 2011

Top 100 NBA Players, Pt. II (Nos. 81-90): Zach Lowe continues his ranking of the NBA’s top 100 players at SI’s Point Forward blog.

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The Last Playoff Ranking: At Wages of Wins Journal, Arturo Galletti ranks every playoff team relative to how they either lost to the Mavericks or lost to a team that lost to the Mavs.

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Top 100 NBA Players, Pt. I (Nos. 91-100): At The Point Forward, Zach Lowe plans to rank the NBA’s top 100 two-way players at this exact moment. He starts with # 91-100, as well as those who just missed the cut.

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July 28, 2011

Fouls Committed in the NBA in 2007-08: Continuing the theme of foul data, Weak Side Awareness posted a list containing loose-ball, non-shooting, and shooting fouls committed by every player in the NBA in 2007-08.

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July 27, 2011

Basketball on Paper WAR and the Best Peak Regular-Season Players Since 1978: BBR’s Neil Paine creates an NBA version of WAR using Dean Oliver’s stats, then ranks the players whose peaks were most impressive.

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Shooting & Loose Fouls Drawn in the NBA in 2007-08: Weak Side Awareness continues to bring the data — this time on fouls drawn in 2008.

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Trust and perception rule the legacy: TrueHoop’s Zach Harper with a meditation on clutchness and how the perception of a player can change whether fans think he’s a choker or a hero.

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Cross-Gender Similarity: Awesome idea from BP’s Kevin Pelton — feed WNBA stats into the SCHOENE projection system, and see which NBA players come out as the top comps.

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July 26, 2011

Has the NBA Salary Cap resulted in greater competitive balance?: From The Courtside Analyst, a look at whether the NBA’s competitive balance has actually improved during the salary cap era.

How Tyreke Evans’ Game Changed: Evans’ effectiveness was down quite a bit in 2011, and Tom Ziller of Sactown Royalty uses shot tendency data to show a big reason why.

July 25, 2011

The Latest from The Wages of Wins Journal: At WoW, Mosi Platt writes about lockout myths, and Arturo Galletti converts Wins Produced to net points.

Who Ruled the Top Defenses in 2011?: At Basketball-Reference, Neil Paine asks: Which players excel against the best defenses, and which ones get their numbers by feasting on the weakest Ds?

July 22, 2011

Does Your NBA Team Make You Happy Or Sad? An Investigation: SBNation’s Tom Ziller researched how consistently each team has played well (or poorly) since the ABA-NBA merger.

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Percentage of League Games That Were Back-to-Backs: Since 1999, how many games in each season featured at least 1 team playing its second game in two nights? BBR has the answer.

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Why Being An Impure Point Guard Isn’t A Bad Thing: SBNation’s Tom Ziller discusses “pure” vs. “impure” point guards, and introduces a purity scale (with a chart) to quantify just how shoot-first or -last a given PG is.

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July 21, 2011

Style of play and wins: The Orlando Magic’s actual W-L always seems to fall short of their pythagorean expectation, and Matt Scribbins of Magic Basketball asks why.

Points Scored Off Turnovers in Last 3 NBA Playoffs: Weak Side Awareness continues to compile points-off-turnovers data for recent seasons. This time, it playoff data since 2009.

July 20, 2011

Will running more equate to winning more?: At TrueHoop, Zach Harper looks at the relationship between pace and winning — is running for its own sake really going to help a team’s record?

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July 18, 2011

Points Scored Off Turnovers in the NBA in 2010-11: The data — conveniently alongside pace factor — for every 2011 team, courtesy of Weak Side Awareness.

North Carolina and UCLA Alums Had the Most Wins Produced in the NBA: Another post from the Wages of Wins Journal, this time looking at schools whose alumni had the highest Wins Produced totals since 1978. (Also, go here, here, and here for a Win Shares-based take on the same topic.)

Games of the Season (*according to wins produced) – 1986 to 1997: At The Wages of Wins Journal, Andres Alvarez goes through the top-ranked Wins Produced games of each season from 1986-1997.

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Estimating NBA Players’ Offensive Production: A new academic paper that attempts to estimate each player’s offensive production by looking at his usage rate while on the court and changes to team efficiency when he leaves the court.

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July 14, 2011

Adjusted Player “dWin%”: From Nathan Walker of The Basketball Distribution, an attempt to calculate adjusted +/- using in-game win probability instead of point differential.

How Much Fun Can You Find in Score by Quarters?: Loads of quarter-by-quarter scoring trivia/curiosities, courtesy of Weak Side Awareness.

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July 12, 2011

More on the NBA Player Rankings Front: BBR’s Neil Paine followed up on his 2012 APBRmetric player rankings by posting a position-by-position breakdown. Meanwhile, WoW’s Arturo Galletti created his own team-by-team rankings by averaging various win estimators.

July 11, 2011

Kobe Bryant vs. crunch time statistics – A debate: Faith and reason face off when TrueHoop’s Henry Abbott debates the L.A. Times’ Mark Heisler on the subject of Kobe’s stats in the clutch.

The (APBRmetric) Top 593 Players of 2012: BBR’s Neil Paine attempts to create a consensus APBRmetric ranking of players for the 2011-12 season.

Do the Players — and Cities — Really Need the NBA Owners?: From the Wages of Wins, another look at whether the owners are really necessary for high-level basketball to be played in the U.S. this season.

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The Busiest Parts of the Season: From Weak Side Awareness, research into the “busiest” stages of a typical NBA season (in terms of transactions).

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Which Rate Stats Correlate More With a Player’s Role Than His Skill?: Study from BBR’s Neil Paine — when a player moves into a new role, which rate stats are best predicted by his past performance, and which ones are predicted by the stats of the player he’s replacing? The answer should give an idea of which stats are more dependent on the team/role than actual player skill.

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July 7, 2011

Sophomore Projections ($): At BP, Kevin Pelton uses the SCHOENE Projection System to set 2012 expectations for last year’s rookie crop.

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Should Team’s Prices Become a Factor in Next CBA?: From Weak Side Awareness, a look at rising franchise valuations, and what impact they should have on the lockout.

July 6, 2011

The Latest From Basketball Prospectus ($): BP’s John Gasaway looks at the 5 Most Underrated Players in Division I, while Kevin Pelton uses translated college stats to predict NBA numbers for next year’s rookie class.

3-Point Shooting, NCAA to NBA: Dan Feldman of BP wonders how well NCAA 3-point shooting translates to the NBA, especially since the NCAA pushed the arc back to 20’9″ in 2008-09.

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N.B.A. Disputes Forbes Analysis Suggesting League is Profitable: No surprise — the NBA is denying many of the claims made in yesterday’s Nate Silver post about the league’s financial situation.

July 5, 2011

Buying NBA Team, Ownership Timeline with Prices: Weak Side Awareness compiled an historical list of NBA team owners, including sale prices when available for teams that changed hands.

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Calling Foul on N.B.A.’s Claims of Financial Distress : Nate Silver of the NY Times analyzes the discrepancy between Forbes’ estimate of the NBA’s financial health and the money-hemorrhaging image the owners are trying to paint in the media.

Intentional & Excessive, 5 Years of Flagrant Fouls: Some recent flagrant foul data/leaders from Weak Side Awareness.

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Who Played the Hardest Defenses? Adjusting playoff stats by competition Part II: At Back Picks, ElGee continues his series on adjusting postseason numbers for the strength of opposing defenses faced.

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The Free Market Alternative: Arturo Galletti of the Wages of Wins examines the economic feasibility of NBA players starting their own league during the lockout.

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July 1, 2011

StatsCube is Down: One of many sad lockout casualties: NBA.com StatsCube is no longer operational.

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The Best Game Stat Lines in the Last 20 NBA Seasons: Weak Side Awareness follows up on yesterday’s list of the worst stat lines with a post on the best single games according to game score and win score since 1992.

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June 30, 2011

Taking a look at the numbers behind the NBA labor dispute: At the Wages of Wins, a detailed breakdown of the financial math behind the NBA’s current lockout situation.

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Buyer Beware ($): At BBall Prospectus, Kevin Pelton lists 5 overrated free agents who will likely bring buyer’s remorse to whichever teams sign them.

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June 29, 2011

The NBA Finals and statistical bias: Sick of responses to Jonah Lehrer’s anti-saber Grantland piece yet? Don’t let it keep you from reading this Tom Haberstroh rebuttal.

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Back to the Internet ‘stone ages’ for the NBA: Kevin Arnovitz of TrueHoop wrote about a bizarre consequence the lockout will have for NBA.com, specifically its player stat cards.

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What advanced stats say about Markieff Morris: Michael Schwartz of Valley of the Suns takes a tour of the stat projections for Morris as a pro.

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SportScience – Kawhi Leonard (video): Neat video from SportScience regarding Leonard’s wingspan and shooting mechanics.

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Who Played the Hardest Defenses? Adjusting playoff stats by competition Part I: At Back Picks, ElGee looks at the quality of playoff defenses faced by MVP candidates in their primes (a similar concept to this BBR post from 2010.)

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Hoops Analyst Draft Grades: Ed Weiland of Hoops Analyst hands out his draft grades. Of interest: when the #1 draft pick comes down to a decision between a point guard and a forward, the PG is almost always better. (You can bet the Cavs’ front office, influenced by stathead Dan Rosenbaum, knew this when choosing between Kyrie Irving and Derrick Williams.)

Premature End – 30 Years of Fired Coaches in NBA: Weak Side Awareness researched NBA coaching changes since 1982 — how many coaches did each team fire, and how many coaches resigned on their own?

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June 28, 2011

Why the Spurs were wrong to trade George Hill: Numeranda’s Jamie Merchant explains how Hill’s trade will haunt San Antonio.

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June 27, 2011

Players & Coaches Who Won Championships With Multiple Teams: Research from BBR — every player and coach to win a title with 2+ teams.

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Why Almost Every NBA Team had a Good Draft?: Weak Side Awareness aggregated draft grades, and found a serious Lake Wobegon effect.

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Top 5 Draft Picks In Consecutive Years – How Much Does The Team Improve?: There’s a Stat For That examines the typical fate of a team that has a top-5 pick in back-to-back drafts.

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Most Top-10 MVP Finishes (since 1977): Just what it sounds like from Back Picks — a list of post-merger players who finished in the top 10 of MVP voting most often.

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June 24, 2011

Watching The Watchers – The Best NBA Mock Drafts: Weak Side Awareness measured how accurate each site’s 2011 Mock Draft was.

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Rating the Draft: Kevin Pelton of BP rates teams according to the projected value in WARP of the players they picked relative to what you’d expect from their draft slot.

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Which Teams are The Most Suspected for Tanking?: A couple of posts from Weak Side Awareness about how to spot teams that tanked for a better draft pick.

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June 23, 2011

NBA 2k11 ratings for all players in NBA history: Did you ever want NBA 2k11 player-rating data for every player in NBA history? If so, a poster at the NBA Live Series Center with the handle ‘Fifedawg’ has compiled a spreadsheet with just that data.

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Analyzing the History of NBA Lottery Selections: SportsDelve’s Andrew McKillop takes you through a tour of the historical lottery-pick data.

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ATH Prospect Rankings, 1-50: Bradford Doolittle finishes ranking the top 50 prospects in this year’s draft, according to his ATH metric.

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Board Work: Since rebounding is the skill that translates best from college to the NBA, BP’s Dan Feldman graphs rebounding %s for the Draft prospects.

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NBA Draft 2011: Centers & Top 30: Hoops Analyst’s Ed Weiland concludes his draft preview with a look at the Center prospects and an overall top 30.

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June 22, 2011

Effects of Draft Lottery Results on NBA History Part 2: From Weak Side Awareness, another look at draft history — this time comparing team’s actual Win Shares received vs. expected WS from their draft slots.

NBA Draft – ATH Prospect Rankings, 51-100: BP’s Bradford Doolittle ranks the prospects according to his Applied Athleticism (ATH) rating system.

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NBA Draft 2011 – Small Forward & Power Forward Hoops Analyst’s Ed Weiland gives his statistical breakdown of this year’s Small Forward and Power Forward prospects.

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2011 Draft by Similarity: Kevin Pelton of BP posts similarity scores for the top players in DraftExpress’ current mock draft.

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The Skinny on the top NBA Draft Prospects using Berri Factors and Intuition: At The Wages of Wins Journal, Ty Willihnganz ranks the draft prospects.

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NBA Draft 2011: Shooting Guards: Ed Weiland of Hoops Analyst analyzes this year’s group of shooting guard prospects.

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Playoff Team Needs: At BP, draft needs for each playoff team from the Eastern and Western Conferences.

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