Baseball: Do Pitchers Really Trade Speed for Command?
Do Pitchers Really Trade Speed for Command?: At BP, Graham Goldbeck wonders whether pitchers really can improve command by “taking a little off” their fastball.
August 26, 2011
Do Pitchers Really Trade Speed for Command?: At BP, Graham Goldbeck wonders whether pitchers really can improve command by “taking a little off” their fastball.
August 25, 2011
Blowing It: BP’s Wayback Machine takes us to this 2007 Nate Silver piece about the 13 worst stretch-run collapses in baseball history.
August 24, 2011
The Lineup Card – 11 Disastrous Acquisitions: BP’s staff makes their picks — 11 player acquisitions that backfired spectacularly.
If the Season Ended Yesterday – Yankees Over Phillies: At Beyond the Box Score, J-Doug runs Baseball Prospectus’ and FanGraphs’ true talent estimates through a Log5-based postseason simulator.
August 23, 2011
BP’s Compensation Pages: Baseball Prospectus has incorporated data from Cot’s Baseball Contracts into their player cards.
August 22, 2011
Is Prospect Potential Realized? ($): BP’s Derek Carty studied whether top prospects (per Baseball America’s annual list) were more likely to exceed their Marcel projections than non-prospects.
August 18, 2011
Turning ‘em Loose ($): BP’s Derek Carty takes his research on managerial SBA effects and sees if it would help predict players’ SBA rates in 2011.
August 17, 2011
Why are Batters Hit by Pitches?: BP’s Mike Fast investigates the factors that determine whether a pitch hits a batter.
Home-Field Disadvantage?: BP’s R.J. Anderson asks whether it’s better to win one’s division or the wildcard from a home-field advantage perspective.
August 16, 2011
Jim Thome for the Hall of Fame: Is Jim Thome a Hall of Famer? BP’s Steven Goldman thinks so. As does Rob Neyer, although both anticipate some pushback from people crying “compiler!” And Tangotiger points out that Jeff Bagwell was better, but doesn’t have the benefit of that shiny 600-HR Club membership card.
UPDATE: Fangraphs’ Chris Cwik also weighs in on Thome.
August 15, 2011
Fast Breakers: Who’s been hot since the All-Star break? BP’s Jay Jaffe lists two players at each position who have been great after the midsummer classic.
Managing a Need for Speed ($): BP’s Derek Carty uses a WOWY approach to determine the impact that managers have on their players’ SBA rates.
Victor’s Missing Power: Where did Victor Martinez’s power go this season? BP’s Jason Collette investigates.
August 11, 2011
The Uggla/Ramirez Paradox: BP’s Michael Jong dissects the seasons of former Florida teammates Dan Uggla and Hanley Ramirez. Production-wise, their 2011s have been strikingly similar, but narrative-wise…
August 10, 2011
What to Expect from Strasburg: BP’s R.J. Anderson looks at past Tommy John surgery recipients to get a better read on how Stephen Strasburg might perform upon returning to the mound.
August 9, 2011
When is playing for your own stats acceptable?: BP’s Wayback Machine travels back to 2006, when Joe Sheehan asked whether records and accomplishments are tainted if achieved when the player puts them ahead of the team’s goals.
August 5, 2011
Vortices of Suck, Part II ($): More from BP’s Jay Jaffe on MLB’s worst, most detrimental players (or groups of players on the same team) at each position.
Moping About Moneyball: At BP, David Brown laments how much more the Moneyball movie would resonate if Oakland’s current on-field product wasn’t so terrible.
August 4, 2011
Paging Pujols ($): BP’s Colin Wyers asks how much Pujols’ disappointing season has cost the Cardinals in terms of playoff probability.
Counsell for the Defense: BP’s Mike Fast presents an incredibly detailed chronicle of Craig Counsell’s 0-for-45 streak.
Why When You Go Matters: BP’s Jeremy Greenhouse applies WPA concepts to stolen-base attempts, determining which players added the most SB value based on the situations in which they stole.
The Asian Equation – Finding Relief from NPB: In his latest piece on Japanese baseball, BP’s Michael Street writes about why relievers have been the best bargains among NPB imports.
Beautiful Theories and Ugly Facts: Here’s a re-run of a 2006 Dan Fox BP article about the factors that drive league-wide HBP rates.
August 3, 2011
Vortices of Suck, Part I ($): BP’s Jay Jaffe lists the worst, most team-destroying players at each position.
The Trade Deadline Money Trail: At BP, Jeff Euston looks into how much payroll each team added or subtracted at the trade deadline.
July 29, 2011
How Often Do Deadline Deals Pay Off?: BP’s Colin Wyers reviewed the data on 180 deadline moves since 1995, and found that very few actually made an impact in a playoff race.
Beltran and Damon ($): BP’s Jay Jaffe compares the Hall of Fame cases for a couple of former Kansas City outfielders.
July 27, 2011
The Mystery of Jered Weaver: BP’s Tommy Bennett wonders why Weaver’s ERA is perpetually better than his FIP would predict, and how is he able to induce so many pop-ups?
Prospectus’ 17 Favorite Midseason Trades: BP’s staff picked their 17 favorite summer swaps in baseball history.
July 26, 2011
Bochy Wins the Close Ones: At BP, Geoff Young puts the close-game performance of the 2011 Giants — and other Bruce Bochy-led teams — in historical context.
July 25, 2011
Stuck in the Middle with You: BP’s Jay Jaffe ranks all-time Hall of Fame double-play combos using his JAWS score.
July 22, 2011
The Two Sides of Jhoulys Chacin ($): Don’t let Chacin’s 3.95 ERA since June 1st fool you, writes BP’s Jason Collette. His peripherals are going in the wrong direction, particularly a 6.18 FIP over the same span.
July 21, 2011
The Avila Advantage ($): At BP, Ben Lindbergh writes about the Tigers’ great fortune in having Alex Avila, a great offensive player at a typically light-hitting position.
July 20, 2011
The Cold Corner ($): Why are third basemen so unproductive this season? BP’s Jay Jaffe investigates.
The Top 13 Veterans Committee Selections That Weren’t THAT Bad ($): From BP, here’s a baker’s dozen Veteran Committee HoF picks that can actually be justified statistically.
A Zone of Their Own: A wealth of great pitch-data analysis by BP’s Mike Fast illuminates the constant struggle between batter and pitcher over control of the strike zone.
Footloose and Fastball-Free: At BP, Sam Miller discusses whether we’ll ever see an all-fastball pitcher, and the strategic implications thereof.
July 18, 2011
The Replacement-Level Killers, Part II: The second part of Jay Jaffe’s BP series about sub-replacement-level players torpedoing contenders (and what they can do about it).
July 15, 2011
The Replacement-Level Killers, Part I ($): BP’s Jay Jaffe begins a trip around the diamond, “highlighting” sub-replacement WARP players on contenders and suggesting what those teams can do to get better production in the 2nd half.
July 14, 2011
Resetting the Division Races ($): BP checks in on the division races in the American League and National League with the help of PECOTA’s playoff odds.
Mid-season Heroes and Goats, Part 2: BP’s R.J. Anderson finishes his series by listing the best and worst WARP pitchers on each team at the All-Star break.
July 13, 2011
Cult Favorites: From BP, a list of 18 non-star ballplayers who should be better remembered.
Trades that Made a Difference: Hop into the BP Wayback Machine for this 2008 Steven Goldman piece about high-impact trades that took place around the deadline.
July 12, 2011
PITCHf/x for the Future: A couple of posts — one from Baseball Prospectus, the other from The Hardball Times — that break down the PITCHf/x data collected during the Futures Game.
Mid-season Heroes and Goats, Part 1: BP’s R.J. Anderson lists the best and worst first-half position players on each team according to WARP.
July 11, 2011
More SABR 41 Recaps: HuffPo’s Jeff Polman wrote about how much fun he had at the convention; meanwhile, Colin Wyers liveblogged the event in two parts.
NL East Pitching Dominance: Is the NL East baseball’s best starting-pitching division? BP’s Michael Jong takes a look.
July 8, 2011
Projecting Freshman Performance: BP’s Drew Cannon comes up with a system to project an incoming freshman’s performance level based on his recruiting ranking out of high school, age, and size.
Adding Injury Averages: BP has added 2 new features to their injury reports — the average games lost to each specific injury, as well as the average impact the injury has on performance when the player eventually returns.
July 7, 2011
Walkless Wonders: In honor of Gary DiSarcina, BP’s Ben Lindbergh presents an historical “award” for players who saw the most ABs before drawing their first walk of the season. Unless Wily Mo Pena extends his current form, mark Vlad Guerrero down as the 2011 winner.
The Decline of NPB Pitching Imports: BP’s Michael Street continues his series on Asian baseball by examining the high rate of flameouts among Japanese pitching imports.
July 5, 2011
Setting the Line–Mid-season Update: At BP, Ken Funck looks at players who defied the preseason over/unders on their individual stats.
Six-Man Mania: BP’s R.J. Anderson dissects some teams’ recent dalliances with the 6-man rotation, and whether it can become a full-fledged trend going forward.
July 1, 2011
BP Staff All-Star Selections: The results of Prospectus’ staff ASG vote.
June 30, 2011
Crawford vs. Reyes: Jose Reyes’ career path through 2011 is tracking with Carl Crawford’s through 2010, writes BP’s Michael Jong, so expect a huge payday if he keeps it going.
Un-Stars: Step into BP’s Wayback Machine and travel back to summer 2005, when James Click listed the most undeserving All-Stars ever.
June 29, 2011
Pinpointing Pitcher Injuries: At Baseball Prospectus, Corey Dawkins and Ben Lindbergh break down the points in the delivery where injuries are most likely to occur.
June 28, 2011
The Stat Community Responds to Jonah Lehrer: Grantland’s Jonah Lehrer wrote an anti-sabermetrics article yesterday, and it was a big topic of discussion at BBTF, The Book Blog, Fangraphs, and Baseball Prospectus. Update: And Beyond the Boxscore.
June 24, 2011
Anyway, Anyhow, Anywhere I Choose – Fandom in the 21st Century: At BP, Jason Fry writes about how technology has changed our ability to follow the game in recent years.
June 23, 2011
Checks and Balances: BP’s Jeremy Greenhouse employs a timeline adjustment to map the balance of power between hitters and pitchers over time.
Birds of a Different Feather: Jays hitters have the biggest OPS platoon split of any team, BP’s R.J. Anderson points out.
June 20, 2011
When Pitchers’ Stats Stabilize: Derek Carty of BP follows up on his research about batters with another study, this time testing how much of a sample is needed for pitcher stats to become indicative of true skill.
June 17, 2011
The Man Who Knew Too Much (About Baseball): At BP, Will Leitch can’t help but wonder if ignorance of sabermetrics is bliss.
June 16, 2011
D-Back Thoughts: A couple of perspectives on Arizona’s 2011 season from Baseball Prospectus and The Hardball Times.
June 15, 2011
The New Approach to Pitching: A BP, Jason Collette summarizes the new way pitchers have been approaching their craft in recent seasons.
Vogelsong Poetry: BP’s Mike Fast breaks down the PITCHf/x details on Ryan Vogelsong.
June 14, 2011
Arguing Baseball’s Best Players: BP’s Larry Granillo unearthed a 1950s-era pseudo-scientific attempt to rank baseball’s best players.
June 13, 2011
When Hitters’ Stats Stabilize: BP’s Derek Carty revisits the issue, and improves on several similar studies from the past.
BABIPs, Young and Old: At BP, a look from Jason Collette at what BABIP means for hitters of different ages.
June 9, 2011
Searching for Consistency: Does a consistent release point matter for pitchers? BP’s Jeremy Greenhouse investigates, and also lists which pitchers have the most and least consistent release points.
Big Papi on Parade: R.J. Anderson of BP tries to pinpoint the reasons for David Ortiz’s offensive renaissance.
June 8, 2011
Anatomy of a Collapse: At BP, Jay Jaffe analyzes the demise of the Twins.
The Asian Equation: The Futile Quest for the Next Ichiro: BP’s Michael Street continues his series on Japanese baseball with a look at the difficulty teams have had in finding NPB-to-MLB stars post-Ichiro.
June 7, 2011
The Most Disappointing Prospects of All Time, Part 4: Steven Goldman of BPro continues his ranking of prospect letdowns.
In-season PECOTA updates: Colin Wyers of BP introduces in-season PECOTA updates, and compares its regression-to-the-mean component to that of ZiPS.
June 6, 2011
HR/FB, SIERA, and Luck: Not every pitcher with a high HR/FB or BABIP has been unlucky, writes BP’s Derek Carty.
June 3, 2011
Can Baseball Expertise Be a Bad Thing?: At BP, Sam Miller profiles Mike Scioscia, his theories about catcher ERA, and whether his thinking is in line with sabermetric studies.
June 2, 2011
Speed, Makeup, and the Power of Words: At BP, Jason Parks concludes his series on scouting.
June 1, 2011
The Real Strike Zone, Part 2: BP’s Mike Fast with great research into the strike zone’s upper and lower boundaries for different hitters (and pitchers).
May 31, 2011
The Evolving Prospectus: Steven Goldman explains some of the recent writer turnover at Baseball Prospectus.
May 26, 2011
The Classic Second-Guess: At BPro, Jeremy Greenhouse asks whether you should keep a cruising starter in to start the 9th or bring in your closer for the final 3 outs.
Answers from a Sabermetrician, Part 2: More of Tangotiger’s responses to reader questions at BPro.
How Do You Rate Relief?: Step into the BP Wayback Machine for this 2005 Nate Silver piece on grading relievers.
May 25, 2011
Aging Hurlers: Baseball Prospectus’ Michael Jong finds similar pitchers to the rapidly-degenerating Javier Vazquez, and wonders what his chances are of reversing the decline.
May 24, 2011
A batted ball puzzler: In a blind taste test, which batted ball dataset do you prefer?
Answers from a Sabermetrician, Part 1: At BP, Tom Tango answers saber-questions.
May 23, 2011
The Annotated WARP Leaders: BP’s Steven Goldman lists their Top 20 WARP seasons since 1950 and writes about new FRAA.
Baseball Prospectus Announces Free Public Access to Archives: BPro has made its entire archive of premium and fantasy content over one year old completely and permanently free to the public.
Catcher Interference Leaders: Leaders (among both offenders and beneficiaries) over the past 5 years, from BP’s Mike Fast.
May 20, 2011
Who’s the Single Best Bet to Reach the Playoffs?:Rob Neyer points out that Baseball Prospectus’ highest playoff odds belong to… the Boston Red Sox?
May 19, 2011
Scouting Fielders, Part I. BP’s Jason Parks tells us what to look for in hitters.
Ask a Sabermetrician: Tangotiger: Ask Tango questions at BP.
The Over/Under-30 All-Stars: Ben Lindbergh of BP lists players who did most of their damage on only one side of age 30.
Bounceback, Breakthrough, or Balderdash?: Ken Funck of BP tries to separate the legit breakouts from the flukes.
May 18, 2011
Adjusting For Opponent In The 2011 MLB Season: Jeff Sullivan of Baseball Nation analyzes BP’s strength of opponent metrics for individual batters and pitchers.
The Evolution of Dusty Baker: Time to change our perceptions about Dusty? BP’s R.J. Anderson thinks so.
May 17, 2011
Scouting Hitters, Part II: Jason Parks of BP with more on how to grade a hitter.
May 13, 2011
Maris and More: At BP, Craig “Flip Flop Fly Ball” Robinson illustrates the transactions between the 1950s/60s Yankees and the KC A’s.
May 12, 2011
Who’s Zoomin’ Who?: At BP, Ben Lindbergh takes a look at which teams are capitalizing on stolen bases the most in 2011′s reduced run-scoring environment.
Scouting hitters: BP’s Jason Parks continues his series on scouting with a look at how hitters are evaluated.