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Archive for September, 2011

September 14, 2011

Stathead is Closing Down

Stathead is Closing Down

With apologies to our dedicted users, we’ve decided to stop publishing the Stathead blog. The blog just never generated the needed readership to be profitable, so we’ve decided to end the project and put our efforts into other projects.

Thank you to the readers who supported us. Thank you for the publishers for putting so much great content out there. And especially, thank you for Neil Paine, our intrepid users affairs maestro, who waded through hundreds of articles each week distilling them down to their essence.

If anyone cares to pick up the torch and run with this idea (or if you just want to get the articles for yourself), I’ve attached an OPML file from the list of RSS feeds we were using for this blog. Feel free to grab it and add it to your favorite RSS reader.

Stathead RSS Subscriptions in OPML format

September 8, 2011

September 8th, 2011 Recap: Today in football… Jason Lisk debunks the idea that the NFC South was the toughest division of 2010… Advanced NFL Stats is looking for analytical writers to contribute this season… Scott Kacsmar looks at Aaron Rodgers’ career as a “front-runner” (a QB who wins from ahead rather than coming back from behind)… PFR’s Chase Stuart previews the 2011 New York Jets season… Bill Barnwell finishes Grantland’s mega NFL preview… Andrew McKillop digs into opening-week factoids… and Lisk looks at the probability of the Packers repeating as champs.

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Beyond ‘Moneyball’ – The rapidly evolving world of sports analytics, Part I: Writing for Analytics Magazine, Ben Alamar and Vijay Mehrotra reflect on the current state of sports analytics, and consider what the industry’s future may hold.

September 8th, 2011 Recap: Today, Tango spotlighted an interesting nugget of research in this “anti-WAR” piece, and wrote about the philosophy behind including position adjustments with FRAA when assessing defense… Bradley Woodrum looked at what ShHAP! says Adam Dunn should be hitting… Larry Koestler dissected Phil Hughes’ woes on 0-2 counts… David Schoenfield used the example of Joey Votto in 2010-11 to point out a gaping hole in mainstream MVP logic… David Golebiewski followed up on this THT piece about Mark Teixeira’s BABIP… Bill Petti extended his volatility research to pitchers… Satchel Price wrote about the impact of popups on the White Sox’s BABIP… Jack Moore updated the probability of Justin Verlander reaching 25 wins… And John Arguello lists seven reasons Billy Beane may be the Cubs’ next GM.

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August 29-September 8 Recap: While we were away… KnickerBlogger.Net assessed Mike Woodson’s ability as a defensive coach… Zach Lowe challenged Paul Pierce’s clutch rep… BP continued redrafting the NBA (see Rounds 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, and 11) and kept us updated on the status of their books… ESPN pressed onward with their NBA player rankings… Tom Haberstroh compared LaMarcus Aldridge to a young Tim Duncan… Jason Friedman looked back at Hakeem Olajuwon’s 1990 quadruple-double… Ken Pomeroy introduced NCAA player similarity scores… Harlan Schreiber reflected on Gary Payton’s career and looked for the next Hall of Famer from each Atlantic Division franchise… Finally, Sebastian Pruiti analyzed why David Lee’s on/off-court rebounding impact is negative.

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September 7, 2011

September 7th, 2011 Recap: Today, Bill Barnwell continued his NFL preview… Jason Lisk wrote about inexperienced O-lines (like the Cowboys now have)… FO’s staff made their 2011 NFL predicitions… Brian Fremeau talked about the most valuable play in college football… And Code & Football took a look at the yardage value of a TD.

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September 7th, 2011 Recap: Today, Tangotiger reminded us what WAR is and is not, and answered reader mail about WPA… Carson Cistulli posted the latest Leaderboards of Pleasure… Sean Forman asked why people hold defensive metrics to a higher standard of consistency than hitting metrics… Jeff Zimmerman and Lucas Apostoleris looked at the PITCHf/x data from Stephen Strasburg’s return… Jason Collette examined pitchers’ tendencies to suppress BABIP via popups… Mike Fast looked at how an umpire’s positioning impacts his calls… R.J. Anderson analyzed whether 2nd-half improvements have predictive value the following season… Kevin Lai had a fun post about player intro music… Josh Weinstock wanted to know why Mark Teixeira’s BABIP is down for 2 straight seasons… Bill Petti looked at the volatility of hitters’ careers… Adam Darowski examined players whose career value was hurt by shorter schedules… And Steve Slowinski offered his take on the “V” in MVP.

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Reminder – Participate in Tangotiger’s 2011 Fan Scouting Report: Just another reminder to vote in the 2011 edition of Tom Tango’s Fans Scouting Report. Help him get a wisdom-of-crowds evaluation of each player’s defensive skills!

September 6th, 2011 Recap: Yesterday, Football Outsiders released their 2011 DVOA Projections… Meanwhile, Jason Lisk and Brian Burke attempted to determine how many wins Peyton Manning was worth.

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September 3/4/5, 2011 Weekend Recap: Over the holiday weekend, Code and Football looked at passer rating as a scoring model… Outside the Hashes determined what a yard is worth in terms of expected points… Keith Goldner gave his Super Bowl projection… Aaron Schatz looked at how often, historically, a player listed as “doubtful” (like Peyton Manning) actually played… Finally, Jason Lisk wrote about Washington’s QB gamble and teams with good point differentials but mediocre records (like the 2010 Chargers).

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September 2nd, 2011 Recap: On the 2nd, Jason Lisk detailed some major reasons why the Patriots are due for a regression in 2011… He also busted the myth that college coaches make poor NFL head coaches… Finally, Scott Kacsmar used a linear regression model to predict NFL teams’ winning percentages.

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September 1st, 2011 Recap: Last Thursday, Jason Lisk looked at how Texas A&M’s SRS stacks up against SEC schools since 1992… Outside the Hashes posted an Expected Points model for college football… Code and Football wrote about “scoring potential”-based metrics (like expected points)… And Jason Lisk studied the possible impact of Jay Cutler’s 2010 sacks on his health and production in 2011.

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August 31st, 2011 Recap: A week ago, Outside the Hashes broke down the logical process that should go into any coaching decision (using this infamous game as an example)… Also, Jason Lisk looked at reasons why the Miami Dolphins might regress to the mean (in a good way) this season.

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August 30th, 2011 Recap: On the 30th, Brian Burke analyzed aging patterns for quarterbacks… Keith Goldner looked at net expected points for kickers… Scott Kacsmar asked whether Michael Vick’s big new contract was justified (a question Jason Lisk echoed at TBL)… And Lisk looked at how well the preseason predicts the regular season when looking at quarters where the starters typically play.

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The modern NFL – are completions and yardage truly independent variables?: On 8/29, Code and Football looked at whether yds/completion was a de facto constant at the team level.

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September 6, 2011

September 6th, 2011 Recap: Today, John Autin notes that Philly’s staff has 3 5-WAR pitchers (but what will that mean in October?)… Steve Treder gives the 1960s Indians a re-do… BP’s Michael Jong looks at Javier Vazquez’s strange career… David Pinto writes about the extreme one-sidedness of the Jays-Angels Vernon Wells trade… JD Sussman wonders whether opportunities are correctly accounted for in advancing fielding stats… Bradley Woodrum debates the relative merits of Roy Halladay & Cliff Lee’s Cy Young cases… Bill Petti shows a graphic of the biggest RBI opportunity creatorsMeet the (beautiful) new face of Sabermetrics… Finally, It’s About the Money critiques WAR (Rob Neyer has already fired back).

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September 3/4/5, 2011 Weekend Recap: Over the holiday weekend, Cy Morong looked at hitting/scoring in August…. Jacob Peterson noted Henry Rodriguez & A.J. Burnett’s near-record-high wild-pitch rates in 2011… Sportsnet.ca’s Mike Cormack Q-&-A-ed Rob Neyer about the Moneyball movie… Eric Seidman looked at the possibility that Bruce Chen could forge a Jamie Moyer-like career path… and Joe Posnanski re-framed pitcher wins as an interesting stat (nothing more or less).

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September 2nd, 2011 Recap: Last Friday, Fangraphs’ Eric Seidman compared Cliff Lee & Clayton Kershaw’s 2011 seasons… Steve Slowinski found hitters whose true power was overrated by ISO… Bill Petti visualized the rise of the 20/20 club over time… ESPN’s Mark Simon looked at the BIS +/- numbers on Curtis Granderson’s defense… Tommy Craggs wrote about the Moneyball movie’s misleading message… Matt Klaassen discussed the unique playing-time considerations that go into a RoY debate… and BtB’s Dave Gershman offered a primer on how to scout pitchers.

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September 1st, 2011 Recap: On 9/1, Steven Goldman wrote about the punchless Braves OF… Eric Seidman spotlighted The Awesomeness of Clayton Kershaw… Jesse Wolfersberger wondered why LHPs are so often described as “crafty”… BtB’s garik16 listed the Majors’ unluckiest pitches… BP posted a Jay Jaffe re-run about the predictive value of late-season performance… Bill Petti looked at year-to-year correlations for various hitting metrics… Colin Wyers evaluated playoff systems with varying numbers of wild-card teams… and Satchel Price looked at the current generation of 20/20 players.

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August 31st, 2011 Recap: On Wednesday, Fangraphs’ Jeff Zimmerman wrote about Ichiro’s Hall of Fame resume… Steve Slowinski wondered how best to measure power hitting… BtB’s Lewie Pollis measured which fanbases overrated their own players the most in All-Star voting… and Bradley Woodrum analyzed James Shields’ unexpectedly good 2011 season.

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August 30th, 2011 Recap: Last Tuesday, THT’s Chris Lund wrote about Jeff Mathis’ mediocrity… BP’s Steven Goldman discussed the perennial individual-performance-vs-team-success MVP debate… Jeff Sullivan, Dave Cameron, and Brad Johnson wrote more about various aspects of Adam Dunn’s horrific season… Eno Sarris recapped the PITCHf/x Summit… Adam Darowski compared Dustin Pedroia’s height to those of LLWS players… Bill Petti and Matthew Carruth talked about the concept of luck-vs-skill as it related to Casey Kotchman… and Patriot provided a basic framework for evaluating individual pitching games.

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August 29th, 2011 Recap: On August 29th, Tangotiger gave his take on Joe Posnanski’s post about WPA and storytelling… Flip Flop Fly Ball looked at the location of “score bugs” during each team’s local broadcast… and Fangraphs’ Matthew Carruth remarked on the lack of dramatic division/wild card races this year.

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Apology/explanation for the lack of posts over the past week: Just wanted to say a quick sorry for the Stathead cupboard being bare recently — I moved to Philadelphia last week, and have been out commission in the internet department until today. I’ll try to catch up on all of the posts I missed, one sport per day (today will be baseball). Thanks for your patience.

-N.P.

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