S-R: MLB | NBA · CBB | NFL · CFB | NHL | Oly | Stathead
Stathead

Archive for August, 2011

August 29, 2011

2011 Big East & Big Ten Simulated Previews: Whatifsports continued previewing the 2011 NCAA football season by simulating the Big East and Big Ten slates.

Category: Football, Tags: , , , . Comments Off.

Appearances & Rankings in the Weekly AP Poll (1936-2010): At Sportsdelve, Andrew McKillop also researched each school’s historical appearances — and placement — in the AP poll.

Category: Football, Tags: , , , , . Comments Off.

How the Hell do the Angels Keep Winning?: At Grantland, Jonah Keri takes a look at Los Angaheim’s ability to consistently outpace statheads’ expectations.

A Tally of League Standings Leaders Heading Into September: SportsDelve’s Andrew McKillop counted how many times each team had the best record in the league on 9/1 — and how often they were able to convert that into a pennant.

Category: Baseball, Tags: , , . Comments Off.

UEFA Champions League Group Strength: Which Champions League group is the toughest? Ian Graham of Decision Technology’s Football Blog investigates.

More on Individual Point Percentage: The Copper & Blue’s Scott Reynolds looks at point% for Eastern Conference players and D-men over the past few seasons. (Recall that point% is the percentage of on-ice team scoring events that a player had a hand in.)

Category: Hockey, Tags: , , , . Comments Off.

Do Teams Control Play Better With Their Starting or Backup Goalie?: Broad Street Hockey’s Geoff Detweiler compared team Fenwick performance with and without the starting netminder.

Category: Hockey, Tags: , , , , . Comments Off.

Calculating Offensive Point Shares: The Puck Stops Here dissects H-R’s Point Shares formula for evaluating offensive performances.

Category: Hockey, Tags: , , , . Comments Off.

2010-11 NHL Marginal Cap Efficiency: Derek Zona of The Copper & Blue looks at the NHL teams that got the most bang for their buck in 2011.

Chris Johnson’s Impact on the Passing Game: Maybe Johnson’s EPA impact on the ground doesn’t warrant a huge new contract, but The Big Lead’s Jason Lisk points out that the erstwhile Titans RB has a big impact in the passing game as well.

Redrafting the NBA – Round Five: Picks #33-40 in BP’s NBA fantasy draft/player rankings.

Trade Partners: Basketball-Reference has added a Trade Partners feature that lets you find all-time trades between any combination of teams.

Category: Basketball, Tags: , , , , , . Comments Off.

10 things I didn’t know about managerial match-ups: In honor of Tony LaRussa & Dusty Baker’s 200th matchup, THT’s Chris Jaffe takes a look at historic managerial rivalries.

Category: Baseball, Tags: , , , , . Comments Off.

Where Chipper ranks among all-time 3B: ESPN’s David Schoenfield uses WAR to determine where Chipper Jones ranks in the pantheon of historical 3rd basemen.

Lewis’s Home Field Disadvantage: David Pinto of Baseball Analytics examines the factors that have caused Colby Lewis to allow twice as many HR at home as on the road in 2011.

August 26, 2011

Records As and Against the AP No. 1: SportsDelve’s Andrew McKillop compiled each school’s all-time record as and against the AP’s #1-ranked team.

Category: Football, Tags: , , , , . Comments Off.

2011 ACC & Big 12 Simulations from WhatIfSports: WhatIfSports ran the 2011 ACC and Big 12 through their simulator.

Shot Types and Shot Targets: Some raw shot target data from Arctic Ice Hockey’s Gabriel Desjardins.

Category: Hockey, Tags: , , , . Comments Off.

Individual Point Percentage by Team – Western Conference: Scott Reynolds of The Copper & Blue looks at the data on individual point percentage — which player had a hand in the highest % of the 5-on-5 goals that were scored when he was on the ice?

Category: Hockey, Tags: , , , . Comments Off.

Point Shares – A Sabermetric Goal: The Puck Stops Here gives a broad overview/criticism of H-R’s Point Shares system.

Category: Hockey, Tags: , , , . Comments Off.

Descriptive and Predictive Metrics: Fangraphs’ Dave Cameron sets Buster Olney straight, explaining the age-old distinction between value-based (retrodictive/descriptive) and ability-based (predictive) metrics.

Category: Baseball, Tags: , , , , . Comments Off.

Most overrated/underrated players in NFL ($): FO’s Aaron Schatz looks at the Scouts Inc. player rankings, identifying players the scouts improperly valued.

Defensive Passer Rating – 2011 Strength Of Schedule: CHFF’s Kerry Byrne computed every team’s 2011 passing strength of schedule based on the passer ratings allowed by their opponents in 2010.

Category: Football, Tags: , , . Comments Off.

When Will the Pistons be Good Again?: Sport Skeptic looks at how long it takes for a team to make the playoffs again based on their winning percentage. His findings support the theory that it’s better to be either really good or really bad — mediocre teams that were in between had the longest waits.

Category: Basketball, Tags: , , , . Comments Off.

Hitter Volatility Part VI – Getting it Right is More Important than Being Right: Even more volatility research from BtB’s Bill Petti, including a tweak to the calculation of volatility.

Category: Baseball, Tags: , , , , . Comments Off.

Does Hall overlook 19th century guys?: At SweetSpot, a discussion about whether 1800s ballplayers are under-represented in the Hall of Fame.

Context Rules All: Eric Seidman writes about the importance of context when analyzing statistics.

Category: Baseball, Tags: , , , . Comments Off.

Ichiro’s 200 – Figuring the Odds: Don Malcolm of Big Bad Baseball analyzes Ichiro’s chances of getting 54 hits in the next 33 games (and thus extending his streak of consecutive 200-hit seasons to 11).

More Chernoffs: THT’s Kevin Lai ran “Chernoff Faces” (face-style graphics that allow multivariable data to be displayed in a single diagram) on the top 50 fWAR hitters of 2011.

Category: Baseball, Tags: , , , . Comments Off.

A Grand Night in the Bronx: Baseball Analytics’ David Golebiewski has heat maps showing that all of the Yankees’ 3 grand slams last night came in known “hot zones” for each batter.

Category: Baseball, Tags: , , , . Comments Off.

Do Pitchers Really Trade Speed for Command?: At BP, Graham Goldbeck wonders whether pitchers really can improve command by “taking a little off” their fastball.

Category: Baseball, Tags: , , , , . Comments Off.

Yeah, but how many runs does so-and-so save at first base by virtue of his scooping ability?: The Book’s Mitchel Lichtman writes about the “scooping” skills of 1st basemen. Turns out it comprises about 15% of a 1B’s value.

Category: Baseball, Tags: , , , , . Comments Off.

Who Is Benefiting from an Expanded Strike Zone?: Baseball Analytics’ Jonathan Scippa looks at the pitchers who get the most called strikes on pitches outside the zone.

A look at team baserunning: At ESPN, Christina Kahrl takes a tour through the advanced team baserunning stats.

Category: Baseball, Tags: , , , . Comments Off.

The legend of Billy Beane: Bennett Cohen of San Francisco Magazine writes about the long and winding development path of the Moneyball movie.

Category: Baseball, Tags: , , , , . Comments Off.

“Behind the Seams: The Stat Story”: MLB Network is going to air a documentary (hosted by Bob Costas) about the rise of sabermetrics on September 18.

Trying to score from 3B, down by 1, with 1 out left in the game: How certain should you be of success when trying to score in that situation? Tango does the math.

Category: Baseball, Tags: , , , , . Comments Off.

Kelly Johnson’s Trade, Kevin Towers, and Strikeouts: Jack Moore of Fangraphs writes about Kevin Towers’ concerted effort to rid the D-Backs of whiff-heavy hitters.

Category: Baseball, Tags: , , , . Comments Off.

In A.L. M.V.P. Voting, Verlander Is Likely to Be Bypassed: At the NY Times, Neil Paine argues that Justin Verlander should — but probably won’t — be near the top of the A.L. MVP ballot.

Nyjer Morgan proves speed does slump ($): Writing for ESPN Insider, Fangraphs’ Dave Cameron debunks the old cliché that “speed never slumps”… In reality, players who rely heavily on their legs are often the most inconsistent performers.

August 25, 2011

The women’s track and field record book needs to be expunged: Slate’s Edward McClelland writes about the profound impact of performance-enhancing drugs on women’s track & field records.

Category: General, Tags: , , , , , . Comments Off.

The Decade’s Best and Worst Offensive Teams in Europe’s Top Leagues: Chris Anderson pays graphical tribute to the European teams that scored the most (and least) goals in a season over the past 10 years.

Category: Soccer, Tags: , , . Comments Off.

Events and Time on Ice: Scott Reynolds of The Copper & Blue digs deeper into the issue of how well scoring events predict a player’s TOI.

Receiving Efficiency – With & Without Incompletions: Drive-By Football’s Keith Goldner looks at how the receiving net expected points leaderboard changes if the target does or does not get blamed for incomplete passes.

Category: Football, Tags: , , , . Comments Off.

Call for New Game Charters: You can help Football Outsiders by volunteering to chart games for them.

Category: Football, Tags: , , . Comments Off.

Redrafting the NBA – Round Four: Picks #25-32 in BP’s effort to rank the NBA’s Top 96 players in fantasy-draft form.

Category: Basketball, Tags: , , , . Comments Off.

Andre Roberson: Ken Pomeroy extols the underrated virtues of Roberson, who plays for the University of Colorado and is rebounding/defensive beast.

NBA negotiations in a handy chart: TrueHoop’s Henry Abbott posted a neat graphic illustrating the offers made so far in the CBA negotiations.

Category: Basketball, Tags: , , , . Comments Off.

Picasso Theory: A couple of reactions, from Tangotiger and Phil Birnbaum, to Malcolm Gladwell’s piece about the “psychic benefits” of owning a sports team.

Value of a called pitch: Tangotiger explains a simple way to estimate the run value of an individual called ball or strike.

Category: Baseball, Tags: , , . Comments Off.

Musing on Sergio Romo’s Slider and Platooning: In his last BtB post, Lucas Apostoleris breaks down Romo’s slurve (and why it might be best to use it strictly against RHBs).

Category: Baseball, Tags: , , , , . Comments Off.

Mike Flanagan career highlights: THT’s Chris Jaffe pays tribute to Mike Flanagan, who died yesterday, by listing the notable moments that made up his 17-year career.

Blowing It: BP’s Wayback Machine takes us to this 2007 Nate Silver piece about the 13 worst stretch-run collapses in baseball history.

Category: Baseball, Tags: , , , . Comments Off.

What Would The Current Standings Look Like Under Realignment?: The answer comes courtesy of Baseball Nation’s Grant Brisbee, and projects the current standings onto 2 15-team, divisionless leagues.

Category: Baseball, Tags: , , , . Comments Off.

Fielding Independent Batting, A ShH Revolution: Fangraphs’ Bradley Woodrum makes it official — “should hit” (ShH) has become Fielding Independent Batting (FIB).

Who Is MLB’s Most Underrated Player?: Which player combines WAR with a lack of Google hits? Baseball Nation’s Jason Brannon has the answer.

Category: Baseball, Tags: , , . Comments Off.

Q&A with SaberWizard Tom Tango: BtB’s Justin Bopp interviews the sabermetric legend, Tangotiger.

Category: Baseball, Tags: , , , . Comments Off.

How Much Will Reyes’ Injuries Cost Him?: At Fangraphs, Jeff Zimmerman compares the contract value Jose Reyes should expect to that which a more durable player (with the same rate stats) would get.

About time!: Clay Davenport writes about presenting postseason odds in graphical form.

Category: Baseball, Tags: , , . Comments Off.

The Shutdown (and Meltdown) Relievers of 2011: Fangraphs’ Steve Slowinski rounds up the best (and worst) relief pitchers of the season, according to shutdowns and meltdowns.

Halladay And Verlander Might Be MVP Worthy, But That’s An Uphill Battle: At Baseball Nation, Marc Normandin examines the chances of an extremely unlikely MVP occurence — namely, a pitcher being given the award.

Category: Baseball, Tags: , , , , . Comments Off.

August 24, 2011

Increased RB Injuries in High Leverage Situations Show Why Committees Have Become Popular: At The Big Lead, Jason Lisk studied the relationship between RB injury rates and the closeness of the score in a high-carry game that may have preceded an injury.

Scouts Inc. 2011 player rankings: Scouts Inc. released their ranking of the top 200 NFL players at ESPN this week.

Best position for Aldridge is up for debate: SI’s Zach Lowe looks at lineup efficiency data to determine the best way for Portland to use LaMarcus Aldridge.

Graph of the Day – A Decade of Offensive Production in the Premier League: Soccer By The Numbers’ Chris Anderson graphed the average goals per match each season (since 2001/02) for each EPL club.

Category: Soccer, Tags: , , . Comments Off.

Redrafting the NBA – Round Three: Picks #17-24 in BP’s fantasy draft of current NBA players.

Category: Basketball, Tags: , , , . Comments Off.

Poll – Equivalent Players: Another thought experiment from Tangotiger, again regarding the balancing of rates and counting stats in player valuation.

Star Power – An Objective Framework for MLB All-Star Voting: BtB’s Lewie Pollis wants to analyze fans’ biases in All-Star voting, but before he can do that, he needed to create an objective, WAR-based metric (“Star Power”) to which fan voting patterns can be compared.

Category: Baseball, Tags: , , , , . Comments Off.

Visualizing 2011 Draft Spending: Fangraphs’ Reed MacPhail graphs team-by-team spending in June’s MLB draft.

Category: Baseball, Tags: , , , . Comments Off.

The Lineup Card – 11 Disastrous Acquisitions: BP’s staff makes their picks — 11 player acquisitions that backfired spectacularly.

Category: Baseball, Tags: , , , . Comments Off.

Skip Schumaker can work really fast: Also at THT, Lucas Apostoleris writes about the pitch data from Skip Schumaker’s appearance on the mound Tuesday night, the latest case of a non-pitcher toeing the rubber. He averaged 13 seconds between pitches, almost 9 seconds fewer than the MLB average!

Wang in the capital: THT’s Kevin Lai breaks down the 2011 PITCHf/x data for Chien-Ming Wang with the Washington Nationals. How does it compare to Wang’s halcyon days as a New York Yankee?

Scouting Report 2011 – By the Fans, For the Fans: Participate in Tangotiger’s annual Fans’ Scouting Report project!

If the Season Ended Yesterday – Yankees Over Phillies: At Beyond the Box Score, J-Doug runs Baseball Prospectus’ and FanGraphs’ true talent estimates through a Log5-based postseason simulator.

Breaking Down A.J. Burnett’s Zones: Jonathan Scippa of Baseball Analytics examines Burnett’s 2011 performance in each vertical 1/3 of the strike zone.

Curtis Granderson’s Defense and His MVP Prospects: Granderson’s current UZR is -9.2. Fangraphs’ Joe Pawlikowski wonders if that is an accurate representation of his defensive value — and if not, what are the WAR implications?

Andre Ethier’s Power Outage: Why is Andre Ethier’s slugging down 91 points from his 2008-2010 average? Baseball Analytics’ David Golebiewski investigates.

First Baseman Scoops: ACTA Sports’ stat of the week involves a first baseman’s ability to save errant throws by scooping them out of the dirt.

August 23, 2011

All About Overtime: SportsDelve’s Andrew McKillop compiles a complete record of NFL overtime for each team, and asks whether the NFL should use the playoff OT rule in the regular-season.

Category: Football, Tags: , , , , , . Comments Off.

How Well Do Scoring Events Reflect Ice Time?: Scott Reynolds of The Copper & Blue looks at how well you can predict a player’s ice time if you know how many scoring events occurred when he was on the ice.

Category: Hockey, Tags: , , , , . Comments Off.

Can Larry Fitzgerald break Jerry Rice’s receptions record?: PFR’s Chase Stuart looks at the pace Fitzgerald would have to maintain to have a shot at Rice’s all-time record for catches.

Peyton Hillis Is Undervalued Because People Believe in Curses and Flukes: At TBL, Jason Lisk analyzes several reasons why would-be fantasy owners might be (foolishly) holding back on drafting Hillis.

Vote for the NFL’s GOAT’s: Pro-Football-Reference.com has added an Elo Rating-based fan voting system for historical & current NFL players, so make your picks for the all-time greats.

Category: Football, Tags: , , , , . Comments Off.

How Much Will — and Should — Chris Johnson Be Paid?: On the “how much will he paid?” front, TBL’s Jason Lisk says that CJ had better not expect Larry Fitzgerald money. Meanwhile, Brian Burke writes about the true value in wins of a boom-and-bust back like Johnson.

Best and Worst Means Something Different for Each NBA Team: At the Wages of Wins Journal, David Berri writes about efficiency differential, looking at each team’s best and worst seasons by the metric since 1974.

Category: Basketball, Tags: , , , . Comments Off.

Redrafting the NBA, Round Two: Picks #9-16 in BP’s inaugural NBA player fantasy draft.

Category: Basketball, Tags: , , , . Comments Off.

Tracy McGrady’s Lost Season, 02-03: Hardwood Paroxysm’s Scott Leedy writes about T-Mac’s 2003 campaign, one of the most underrated all-time great seasons ever.

Category: Basketball, Tags: , , , , . Comments Off.

Taking the Next Step – Derrick Rose ($): BP’s Kevin Pelton breaks down how D-Rose can improve going into 2012.

Category: Basketball, Tags: , , . Comments Off.

MPP – Most Productive Player Award: At The Book Blog, Tango comments on Joe Posnanski’s post about replacing the MVP with the MPP (Most Productive Player). It’s an idea whose time has come.

The Rise and Fall of Third Basemen: At Fangraphs, Eno Sarris wonders why third basemen are hitting so (uncharacteristically) poorly this season.

The Art of Scouting – How to Compile a Professional Scouting Report: A nifty how-to guide from BtB’s Dave Gershman .

Category: Baseball, Tags: , , , . Comments Off.

Daryl Morey is Right. Daryl Morey is also Wrong: Bill Petti and Tom Tango offer a couple of reactions to Daryl Morey’s HBR post about the debate between better data and better analytics.

Category: General, Tags: , , , , , . Comments Off.

How to convert an ordered list into a dollar-value list: For fantasy players, here’s how Tangotiger converts a ranked list into a set of implied dollar values based on the number of players available, and the values of the average and minimum-cost players.

Category: Baseball, Tags: , , . Comments Off.

BP’s Compensation Pages: Baseball Prospectus has incorporated data from Cot’s Baseball Contracts into their player cards.

Category: Baseball, Tags: , , , , . Comments Off.

Kraig Kimbrel: David Golebiewski of Baseball Analytics spotlights Kimbrel’s unbelievable strikeout rate this season. What is allowing him to fan 15 batters per 9 innings?

Leaderboards of Pleasure – 8/22/11: At Fangraphs, check out Carson Cistulli’s latest rankings of the teams/players that sabermetrically-inclined fans will enjoy.

Category: Baseball, Tags: , , , . Comments Off.

Curtis Granderson, the right man against lefties: Baseball Analytics’ Bill Chuck examines the huge difference in the quality of Granderson’s hitting vs. LHPs this season.

NESSIS Registration: Baseball Musings’ David Pinto points out that NESSIS (the New England Symposium on Statistics in Sports) has opened registration for the 2011 conference.

Category: General, Tags: , , . Comments Off.

Evaluating Pitchers as a Concept: Average, Replacement Level, or Just Totals?: First, take this poll. Then read Tom Tango’s explanation of what it means in relation to pitcher value and the concept of the replacement-level player.