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Archive for April, 2011

April 29, 2011

Favorites Advance, Unlike the Usual Postseason: Carl Bialik of the WSJ Daily Fix writes about the rarity of NHL favorites actually dominating the 1st round of the playoffs.

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2010-11 CONCACAF Champions League: Final Attendance Summary: Howard Hamilton of HexagonalBlog has final attendance data from the CONCACAF Champions League.

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Jason Lisk’s NFL Draft 1st Round Analysis: The Big Lead’s Jason Lisk analyzes Round 1, where QBs proved supply & demand.

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What Happened to the First Round RB?: Advanced NFL Stats’ Brian Burke wonders why teams are picking RBs less in Round 1.

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The Difference Between a Bust, a Boom, and an Average Pick at the Top of the Draft: Jason Lisk of TBL wonders whether you should go after “safe” players or high-risk ones early in the draft.

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In Defense of Russell Westbrook: Before anyone criticizes Russell Westbrook’s effect on Kevin Durant, Rob Mahoney of Hardwood Paroxysm has some StatsCube data for you.

The Right Kind of Turnover: Not all turnovers are created equal, writes John Schuhmann of NBA.com StatsCube.

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Updated Playoff Odds: Just what it sounds like, via Nathan Walker and the BBall Distribution.

BBR Rankings: Neil Paine of BBR has schedule-adjusted power rankings through the (almost-completed) 1st round.

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Was going for 2, down 3 with 13.8 left the right call?: Scott Sereday of 48 Minutes of Hell breaks down the decision to go for a quick 2 + foul rather than attempting a tying 3.

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30 to 16 to 1: Writing for the Wages of Wins Journal, Arturo Galletti looks at differences between the regular season and playoffs.

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BBR Playoff Previews: Chicago vs. Atlanta; Miami vs. Boston; Lakers vs. Dallas

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The Cubs’ First Round Failures: Satchel Price of Beyond the Box Score recounts just how unsuccessful the Cubs have been early in the draft since 1992.

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Scherzer’s Slider: David Pinto of Baseball Analytics looks at Max Scherzer’s improved slider.

On The Houston Astros’ Shoddy Infield Defense: Baseball Nation’s Jeff Sullivan notes that Houston has trouble turning ground balls into outs.

Bobby Grich And His Case For The Hall Of Fame: Cyril Morong of Cybermetrics makes Grich’s case.

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Where April’s Best Starter Ends Up: After Jered Weaver’s lights-out start, Daniel Moroz of BtB wonders how April’s top starters from years past fared later in the year.

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25+ Starts In A Season By 2+ RHP Age 36 Or Older: Steve Lombardi of B-R finds teams that used a lot of old righty starters.

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Iannetta Battles the BABIP Gods: Why is Chris Iannetta’s BABIP perpetually low? Fangraphs’ Eric Seidman digs into the data.

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Predicting the Next Jose Bautista: Part I, Explaining HR Change: Bill Petti of BtB looks for ways to predict abrupt power surges.

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Mattingly and Dotel: Unbelievably bad luck: THT’s Paul Francis Sullivan marvels at the 2 players’ bad luck in avoiding a WS appearance.

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Chris Snyder Is the Game’s Slowest Baserunner: According to the WSJ’s Scott Cacciola, Chris Snyder is on the verge of setting the all-time record for most career plate appearances without a stolen base.

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Batting Graphs Added: The Baseball Gauge’s Dan Hirsch has added graphs to each player’s batting page.

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How difficult to develop a 50-game winner?: At SweetSpot, David Schoenfield ponders homegrown 50-game winners.

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April 28, 2011

Quantifying the Bias of Arsenal’s Referees vs. The Rest of the League’s Clubs: From Zach Slaton of A Beautiful Numbers Game, here’s a math-heavy attempt to measure if Arsenal is receiving different treatment from officials.

The Mystery of the Vanishing Fouls: Why are fouls called so infrequently in MLS? Chris Anderson of Soccer By The Numbers investigates.

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CONCACAF Coefficients: Howard Hamilton of Soccermetrics lists country and club coefficients through the end of CONCACAF Champions League 2010-11.

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MLS Offensive Rates at Different Scorelines: Sounder At Heart has splits for MLS offensive rate stats by score differential.

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BtN Cards: New player cards from Behind the Net.ca.

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Playoff Previews: Detroit vs. San Jose from Hockey Prospectus; Vancouver vs. Nashville from HPro and On The Forecheck.

Playoff Fenwick Score Tied Update: BtN with the updated numbers through Wednesday’s games.

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Quarterbacks by the Numbers: Danny Kelly of Field Gulls provides a graphical view of the top QB prospects.

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Big-name RBs over-valued by NFL: Running back prospects are overrated on draft day, writes Todd DeVries of CHFF.

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Risk in the Draft: A couple of discussions on risk and the NFL Draft – first, Analytic Football’s Ben Alamar looks at the risks in drafting QBs; then Keith Goldner of Drive-By Football has a more general take on draft picks and variability.

NBA Hex Colors: DStats has a neat table with hex colors for each NBA team’s scheme.

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Paint Patrol: Kevin Pelton of BBall Prospectus writes about Serge Ibaka and Kendrick Perkins’ impact on the OKC defense.

Star Turns: Stars are dominating playoff scoring, according to Dan Feldman of BBall Prospectus.

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The Playoffs Have Made LeBron James More Careful With the Ball: LeBron’s turnover rate has dipped in the playoffs, writes Rob Mahoney at the NY Times.

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Spoelstra, Heat not buying ‘hot hand’ theory «: At SI’s Point Forward, Zach Lowe reports that the Heat have taken the stathead’s approach to the theory of the “hot hand”.

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Super Mario leads Heat past 76ers: Chalmers keyed the Heat’s Game 5 victory, according to ESPN’s Stats & Info.

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Pacer Wages: Two Indiana links from the Wages of Wins today – First, Andres Alvarez’s review of the Chicago-Indiana series; then Ian Levy’s keys to the Pacers’ summer.

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Keeping Score: The Most Important Skill for a Leadoff Hitter: Writing for the NY Times, Neil Paine writes about basic sabermetric strategy for leadoff hitters.

What’s Wrong with Liriano?: At Baseball Analytics, David Pinto examines the PITCHf/x data on Francisco Liriano’s rough start.

Too Many Sliders?: Eno Sarris of Fangraphs wonders if slider-heavy pitchers are more likely to get hurt than fastball-heavy ones.

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Undefeated Angel: BP’s Jeremy Greenhouse delves into the PITCHf/x data to explain Jered Weaver’s dominating 2011 start.

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Full On Double Wildcard: What Does This Mean?: At Beyond the Box Score, CSJ takes a look at the new playoff proposal and its implications.

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Has Kyle Davies Release Point Changed? Does it Matter?: Royals Review’s Connor Moylan finds subtle differences in Davies’ mechanics and peripherals vs. last season.

“Player Trees” from The Platoon Advantage: Check out these ‘player trees’, graphical depictions of how Chuck Knoblauch and Glenn Davis are still affecting the Twins and Astros, respectively.

Were the triple crown winners the best players?: At B-R, Andy K. looked at whether triple-crown winners were actually the league’s best players by WAR.

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Using (Bad) Luck To Your Advantage: Roto Hardball’s Michael Barr finds the players who have been luckiest and unluckiest on batted balls.

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Do Good Minor League Systems Lead to Major League Success? Part 1: BtB’s Scott McKinney examines the correlation between a good minor-league system and wins at the MLB level.

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The numbers behind a catch and a just-miss: Mark Simon of ESPN’s Stats & Info breaks down BABIP by fly ball hangtime, as it relates to Brent Lillibridge’s game-saving catch on Tuesday.

Rookie Leaderboards: David Appelman introduces a new feature at Fangraphs’ leaderboards.

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The Myth of the Golden Age: Hop in the BP Wayback Machine for this 2007 Dan Fox piece on the improvement of baseball over time.

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Does Roberto Alomar belong in the Hall of Fame?: With Alomar enshrined, THT’s Steven Booth wonders how his career stands up next to those of other HoF second basemen.

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Cahill’s adjustments: At THT, Lucas Apostoleris compares PITCHf/x data between Trevor Cahill’s 2011, 2010, and 2009.

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Brandon McCarthy: Mechanical changes for the better?: THT’s Kyle Boddy reviews the video and PITCHf/x data on McCarthy’s new delivery.

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Ethier’s Adjustment: David Pinto of Baseball Analytics explains how Andre Ethier adjusted to opponents pitching him away.

April 27, 2011

Was St. Patrick Clutch Or Not?: Was Patrick Roy a clutch goalie? HPro’s Philip Myrland takes a closer look.

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New England Patriots Lead Pack in Stockpiling Valuable Picks: At the WSJ’s Daily Fix, Carl Bialik counts up how much the Pats’ 9 picks are worth in Approximate Value.

The Underrated Pavel Datsyuk: Hockey Prospectus’ Tom Awad gives some love to the criminally underrated Red Wings center.

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Hockey Numbers’ Round 2 Previews: Chris Boersma’s stat previews for Detroit vs. San Jose and Vancouver vs. Nashville

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Does a player’s speech predict how he’ll perform in the NFL?: Michael Agger of Slate Magazine puts the spotlight on a company that tries to tie language patterns to performance.

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No “passing leader” has won the Super Bowl: Chase Stuart of PFR notes that no QB led the league in pass yds & won the SB in the same season.

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Coping With Powerful Distractions: Hardwood Paroxysm’s Danny Savitzky on the importance of crunch time.

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Visualizing the Brightest Stars in the NBA: DStats with a graphic showing the players who had the most great games this season.

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The list: NBA head coaching candidates: An extremely detailed list of possible coaching candidates for 2012, courtesy of TrueHoop’s Henry Abbott.

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Memphis Grizzlies’ Tony Allen deserves credit: ESPN’s John Hollinger highlights Allen’s great defensive play.

2011 Internet Basketball Awards – Results: Kevin Pelton presents the results of the 2011 IBBA voting.

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Home Sweet Home: Hoopdata notes on Tuesday’s action, from Jeff Fogle.

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Shaq vs. Darko: Losing ugly: Henry Abbott consults the advanced stats, looking for some way in which Darko Milicic was superior to Shaquille O’Neal.

Is Haren-Weaver The AL’s Best Pitching Duo?: That’s the question being posed at BtB by Satchel Price.

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Predicting Shutdowns And Saves: Fangraphs’ Bradley Woodrum looks at the correlation between bullpen quality and overall team performance.

Two Alex Gonzalez Career Profiles: Minor League Ball’s John Sickels profiles the two Alex Gonzalezes who patrolled the shortstop position during the late 90s and 2000s.

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Diagnosing Rafael Soriano’s Woes: Steve Slowinski of Fangraphs uses PITCHf/x to determine what’s gone wrong for Soriano this year.

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The Guillen Number: Writing for ESPN’s SweetSpot blog, Christina Kahrl looks at the ChiSox’s “Guillen Number” (the percentage of runs scored via HR).

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Johnny Damon and the Hall of Fame: Matt Klaassen of Fangraphs lays out Damon’s HoF case.

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FanGraphs Live at SABR41 in LA: Fangraphs’ annual event will be at the same venue as the SABR Convention in Long Beach this July.

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BOB:  The empire takes over the Dodgers: Brian Borawski’s latest Business of Baseball report covers the big news in L.A.

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Is Ubaldo Jimenez the Rockies Worst Starting Pitcher?: As strange as that question would have sounded last year, BtB’s Dave Gershman lays out a convincing case.

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Regress, Regress I Say!: An In-Season Batter Regression Calculator, courtesy of Bill Petti and BtB.

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What does XBT% really tell us?: Andy K. of B-R wonders about the significance of XBT%, the percentage of extra bases taken.

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Marse Joe’s last hurrah: Steve Treder of THT looks back at Joe McCarthy’s last season as an MLB manager.

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Sabermetricians: Help!: Sports Central’s Brad Oremland has questions for all of the saberists out there.

Hot and cold hitters thus far: From THT’s Rory Paap, the title says it all.

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Return of the Up-the-Middlemen: BP’s Jay Jaffe studies whether defensive performance from a certain grouping of fielders is of extra importance.

A Soria Subject: Mike Fast of BP breaks down Joakim Soria’s apparent 2011 decline.

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BABIP Bugaboos: Posada and Figgins have taken 2 wildly different routes to their bad BABIPs, writes BP’s Craig Brown.

Be very afraid of Jose Bautista: David Schoenfield of SweetSpot has numbers suggestion Bautista might be the most “feared” hitter in MLB.

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Ethier sets April hit streak record: According to ESPN’s Stats & Info, Andre Ethier now has the longest April hit streak in MLB history.

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Top Two Strike Hitters: Baseball Analytics’ Jonathan Scippa lists 2011′s top wOBA performers with 2 strikes.

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Where do winning pitchers come from?: David Schoenfield of SweetSpot looked at each team’s winningest pitchers since 2001, noting how many were home-grown.

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Save rule has skewed skippers’ thinking: MLB.com’s Matthew Leach on the unintended consequences of the save rule.

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Chipper Jones becomes 52nd player to reach 500 doubles: Via HardballTalk, a milestone for Chipper.

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April 26, 2011

Is it too Late for the Spurs?: Wayne Winston of Mathletics thinks so, but he uses +/- to show that it didn’t have to be that way. Also of note: Winston’s playoff team ratings.

European Champions League (Graphically Speaking): The NY Times’ Goal blog presents Hyperakt’s view of the Champions League.

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The Timing of Cards Across Leagues: On Football’s Sarah Rudd examines how quickly referees from various leagues are willing to whistle players for fouls in a given game.

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Building Around Goalies: Matthew Coller of Hockey Prospectus wonders whether teams should build around the “hot goalie”, or just put the best defense in front of him.

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Getting Defensive: Atlanta Thrashers: BtN’s Benjamin Wendorf breaks down the Thrashers’ D-man usage over the course of the season.

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Interview with Aaron Schatz: Jason Lisk of The Big Lead chats with the founder and President of Football Outsiders.

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