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BBR Feature Add: Practice Shot Charts

Posted by sean on April 1, 2014

Practice Shot Charts.

NBA.com has really upped the level of detail they've added, so we're trying to respond with the latest and greatest data we can get. We've recently come to an agreement with a number of franchises for access to their practice film and have begun breaking down scrimmage data.

Practice shot charts seem to us the next frontier in basketball analytics. This data will show you who's improving, who isn't, and who is working on new aspects of their game. It's especially useful for players without a lot of playing time.

Before we roll it out sidewide, we've prepared some sample charts.

4 Comments | Posted in Advanced Stats, Announcement, Basketball-Reference.com, expire10d, Most Wanted, Stat Questions, Statgeekery, Uncategorized

Job: User Affairs Coordinator @ Sports Reference

Posted by sean on January 6, 2014

User Affairs Coordinator @ Sports Reference.

Yes, we'll pay you money to spend all day answering questions about sports. Please pass along this job ad to anyone you might think would be interested.

5 Comments | Posted in Advanced Stats, Announcement, Baseball-Reference.com, Basketball-Reference.com, CBB at Sports Reference, CFB at Sports Reference, Expire30d, Hockey-Reference.com, Olympics at S-R, Pro-Football-Reference.com, Statgeekery, Tips and Tricks, WAR

Where Does Florida State Rank Entering the BCS Championship Game?

Posted by Neil on December 9, 2013

Chase asked where FSU's +42.3 pre-bowl PPG differential ranked among all BCS-bowl teams historically, so I thought I'd run a quick database search:

Year School Pre-Bowl MOV Bowl
2013 Florida State (acc) +42.3 BCSCG (vs. Auburn)
2005 Texas (big-12) +36.3 Rose (W 41-38 vs. Southern California)
2001 Miami (FL) (big-east) +33.8 Rose (W 37-14 vs. Nebraska)
2008 Florida (sec) +32.3 BCSCG (W 24-14 vs. Oklahoma)
2000 Florida State (acc) +32.2 Orange (L 2-13 vs. Oklahoma)
2013 Baylor (big-12) +32.1 Fiesta (vs. Central Florida)
2010 Texas Christian (mwc) +31.9 Rose (W 21-19 vs. Wisconsin)
2010 Oregon (pac-10) +30.9 BCSCG (L 19-22 vs. Auburn)
1999 Virginia Tech (big-east) +30.8 Sugar (L 29-46 vs. Florida State)
2003 Oklahoma (big-12) +30.3 Sugar (L 14-21 vs. Louisiana State)
2008 Southern California (pac-10) +29.8 Rose (W 38-24 vs. Penn State)
2001 Florida (sec) +29.7 Orange (W 56-23 vs. Maryland)
2008 Oklahoma (big-12) +29.5 BCSCG (L 14-24 vs. Florida)
2012 Oregon (pac-12) +28.8 Fiesta (W 35-17 vs. Kansas State)
2005 Southern California (pac-10) +28.7 Rose (L 38-41 vs. Texas)
2007 Kansas (big-12) +28.3 Orange (W 24-21 vs. Virginia Tech)
2009 Texas Christian (mwc) +28.3 Fiesta (L 10-17 vs. Boise State)
2011 Louisiana State (sec) +27.9 BCSCG (L 0-21 vs. Alabama)
2012 Alabama (sec) +27.8 BCSCG (W 42-14 vs. Notre Dame)
2008 Penn State (big-ten) +27.8 Rose (L 24-38 vs. Southern California)
2011 Wisconsin (big-ten) +27.6 Rose (L 38-45 vs. Oregon)
2013 Alabama (sec) +27.4 Sugar (vs. Oklahoma)
2000 Miami (FL) (big-east) +27.2 Sugar (W 37-20 vs. Florida)
2011 Alabama (sec) +27.2 BCSCG (W 21-0 vs. Louisiana State)
2009 Boise State (wac) +26.5 Fiesta (W 17-10 vs. Texas Christian)
2010 Ohio State (big-ten) +26.1 Sugar (W 31-26 vs. Arkansas)
2006 Ohio State (big-ten) +25.9 BCSCG (L 14-41 vs. Florida)
2004 Utah (mwc) +25.6 Fiesta (W 35-7 vs. Pittsburgh)
2009 Texas (big-12) +25.5 BCSCG (L 21-37 vs. Alabama)
2008 Texas (big-12) +25.3 Fiesta (W 24-21 vs. Ohio State)
2007 Oklahoma (big-12) +25.2 Fiesta (L 28-48 vs. West Virginia)
1998 Ohio State (big-ten) +25.1 Sugar (W 24-14 vs. Texas A&M)
2013 Ohio State (big-ten) +25.0 Orange (vs. Clemson)
2012 Florida State (acc) +24.8 Orange (W 31-10 vs. Northern Illinois)
2004 Southern California (pac-10) +24.3 Orange (W 55-19 vs. Oklahoma)
2003 Louisiana State (sec) +24.2 Sugar (W 21-14 vs. Oklahoma)
2006 Boise State (wac) +23.8 Fiesta (W 43-42 vs. Oklahoma)
2002 Miami (FL) (big-east) +23.8 Fiesta (L 24-31 vs. Ohio State)
2011 Oklahoma State (big-12) +23.5 Fiesta (W 41-38 vs. Stanford)
2002 Oklahoma (big-12) +23.5 Rose (W 34-14 vs. Washington State)
2003 Southern California (pac-10) +23.4 Rose (W 28-14 vs. Michigan)
2011 Stanford (pac-12) +23.3 Fiesta (L 38-41 vs. Oklahoma State)
2009 Florida (sec) +23.2 Sugar (W 51-24 vs. Cincinnati)
2000 Oklahoma (big-12) +23.0 Orange (W 13-2 vs. Florida State)
2010 Wisconsin (big-ten) +22.8 Rose (L 19-21 vs. Texas Christian)
2011 Oregon (pac-12) +22.5 Rose (W 45-38 vs. Wisconsin)
2010 Stanford (pac-10) +22.5 Orange (W 40-12 vs. Virginia Tech)
1999 Wisconsin (big-ten) +22.5 Rose (W 17-9 vs. Stanford)
2004 Oklahoma (big-12) +22.4 Orange (L 19-55 vs. Southern California)
2006 Louisville (big-east) +22.3 Orange (W 24-13 vs. Wake Forest)
2003 Kansas State (big-12) +22.3 Fiesta (L 28-35 vs. Ohio State)
2004 Auburn (sec) +22.3 Sugar (W 16-13 vs. Virginia Tech)
2007 Hawaii (wac) +22.0 Sugar (L 10-41 vs. Georgia)
2012 Northern Illinois (mac) +21.8 Orange (L 10-31 vs. Florida State)
1999 Nebraska (big-12) +21.8 Fiesta (W 31-21 vs. Tennessee)
2007 West Virginia (big-east) +21.7 Fiesta (W 48-28 vs. Oklahoma)
2001 Nebraska (big-12) +21.7 Rose (L 14-37 vs. Miami (FL))
1999 Florida State (acc) +21.6 Sugar (W 46-29 vs. Virginia Tech)
2007 Ohio State (big-ten) +21.3 BCSCG (L 24-38 vs. Louisiana State)
2003 Michigan (big-ten) +21.3 Rose (L 14-28 vs. Southern California)
1998 Wisconsin (big-ten) +21.1 Rose (W 38-31 vs. UCLA)
2002 Iowa (big-ten) +20.8 Orange (L 17-38 vs. Southern California)
2009 Alabama (sec) +20.7 BCSCG (W 37-21 vs. Texas)
2006 Louisiana State (sec) +20.6 Sugar (W 41-14 vs. Notre Dame)
1998 Florida State (acc) +20.6 Fiesta (L 16-23 vs. Tennessee)
2008 Utah (mwc) +20.2 Sugar (W 31-17 vs. Alabama)
2004 Virginia Tech (acc) +19.7 Sugar (L 13-16 vs. Auburn)
2012 Kansas State (big-12) +19.6 Fiesta (L 17-35 vs. Oregon)
1998 Tennessee (sec) +19.6 Fiesta (W 23-16 vs. Florida State)
2009 Cincinnati (big-east) +19.1 Sugar (L 24-51 vs. Florida)
2013 Clemson (acc) +19.1 Orange (vs. Ohio State)
2007 Louisiana State (sec) +19.1 BCSCG (W 38-24 vs. Ohio State)
2004 Texas (big-12) +18.8 Rose (W 38-37 vs. Michigan)
2005 Penn State (big-ten) +18.7 Orange (W 26-23 vs. Florida State)
2010 Auburn (sec) +18.2 BCSCG (W 22-19 vs. Oregon)
2008 Alabama (sec) +18.2 Sugar (L 17-31 vs. Utah)
1998 Syracuse (big-east) +18.1 Orange (L 10-31 vs. Florida)
2005 Ohio State (big-ten) +17.7 Fiesta (W 34-20 vs. Notre Dame)
2000 Florida (sec) +17.7 Sugar (L 20-37 vs. Miami (FL))
1998 Florida (sec) +17.6 Orange (W 31-10 vs. Syracuse)
2002 Georgia (sec) +17.3 Sugar (W 26-13 vs. Florida State)
2009 Ohio State (big-ten) +17.1 Rose (W 26-17 vs. Oregon)
2013 Michigan State (big-ten) +17.1 Rose (vs. Stanford)
2011 Michigan (big-ten) +17.0 Sugar (W 23-20 vs. Virginia Tech)
2003 Florida State (acc) +17.0 Orange (L 14-16 vs. Miami (FL))
2002 Southern California (pac-10) +17.0 Orange (W 38-17 vs. Iowa)
2002 Ohio State (big-ten) +16.9 Fiesta (W 31-24 vs. Miami (FL))
1999 Tennessee (sec) +16.8 Fiesta (L 21-31 vs. Nebraska)
2010 Virginia Tech (acc) +16.5 Orange (L 12-40 vs. Stanford)
2012 Notre Dame (independent) +16.4 BCSCG (L 14-42 vs. Alabama)
2001 Maryland (acc) +16.4 Orange (L 23-56 vs. Florida)
2013 Auburn (sec) +16.2 BCSCG (vs. Florida State)
2006 Michigan (big-ten) +15.6 Rose (L 18-32 vs. Southern California)
2006 Southern California (pac-10) +15.4 Rose (W 32-18 vs. Michigan)
2006 Florida (sec) +15.4 BCSCG (W 41-14 vs. Ohio State)
2007 Southern California (pac-10) +15.3 Rose (W 49-17 vs. Illinois)
2005 West Virginia (big-east) +15.3 Sugar (W 38-35 vs. Georgia)
2008 Ohio State (big-ten) +15.1 Fiesta (L 21-24 vs. Texas)
2013 Stanford (pac-12) +14.6 Rose (vs. Michigan State)
2010 Arkansas (sec) +14.6 Sugar (L 26-31 vs. Ohio State)
2005 Notre Dame (independent) +14.5 Fiesta (L 20-34 vs. Ohio State)
2005 Georgia (sec) +14.5 Sugar (L 35-38 vs. West Virginia)
2010 Oklahoma (big-12) +14.5 Fiesta (W 48-20 vs. Connecticut)
2000 Oregon State (pac-10) +14.2 Fiesta (W 41-9 vs. Notre Dame)
2009 Oregon (pac-10) +14.1 Rose (L 17-26 vs. Ohio State)
2006 Oklahoma (big-12) +14.1 Fiesta (L 42-43 vs. Boise State)
2007 Virginia Tech (acc) +13.8 Orange (L 21-24 vs. Kansas)
2012 Florida (sec) +13.8 Sugar (L 23-33 vs. Louisville)
2003 Miami (FL) (big-east) +13.6 Orange (W 16-14 vs. Florida State)
2013 Central Florida (american) +13.6 Fiesta (vs. Baylor)
1998 UCLA (pac-10) +13.0 Rose (L 31-38 vs. Wisconsin)
2002 Washington State (pac-10) +12.9 Rose (L 14-34 vs. Oklahoma)
2001 Oregon (pac-10) +12.2 Fiesta (W 38-16 vs. Colorado)
2012 Wisconsin (big-ten) +11.7 Rose (L 14-20 vs. Stanford)
2000 Purdue (big-ten) +11.4 Rose (L 24-34 vs. Washington)
2011 Virginia Tech (acc) +11.3 Sugar (L 20-23 vs. Michigan)
2012 Stanford (pac-12) +11.0 Rose (W 20-14 vs. Wisconsin)
2007 Georgia (sec) +10.9 Sugar (W 41-10 vs. Hawaii)
2002 Florida State (acc) +10.8 Sugar (L 13-26 vs. Georgia)
2001 Illinois (big-ten) +10.7 Sugar (L 34-47 vs. Louisiana State)
2000 Notre Dame (independent) +10.7 Fiesta (L 9-41 vs. Oregon State)
2013 Oklahoma (big-12) +10.5 Sugar (vs. Alabama)
2009 Georgia Tech (acc) +10.5 Orange (L 14-24 vs. Iowa)
1999 Michigan (big-ten) +10.3 Orange (W 35-34 vs. Alabama)
1998 Texas A&M (big-12) +10.1 Sugar (L 14-24 vs. Ohio State)
2006 Notre Dame (independent) +10.0 Sugar (L 14-41 vs. Louisiana State)
2000 Washington (pac-10) +9.7 Rose (W 34-24 vs. Purdue)
2001 Colorado (big-12) +9.7 Fiesta (L 16-38 vs. Oregon)
1999 Alabama (sec) +9.5 Orange (L 34-35 vs. Michigan)
2007 Illinois (big-ten) +9.3 Rose (L 17-49 vs. Southern California)
2011 West Virginia (big-east) +8.7 Orange (W 70-33 vs. Clemson)
2001 Louisiana State (sec) +8.6 Sugar (W 47-34 vs. Illinois)
2004 Michigan (big-ten) +8.4 Rose (L 37-38 vs. Texas)
2005 Florida State (acc) +7.8 Orange (L 23-26 vs. Penn State)
2009 Iowa (big-ten) +7.6 Orange (W 24-14 vs. Georgia Tech)
2006 Wake Forest (acc) +7.5 Orange (L 13-24 vs. Louisville)
2011 Clemson (acc) +7.5 Orange (L 33-70 vs. West Virginia)
2012 Louisville (big-east) +7.2 Sugar (W 33-23 vs. Florida)
2003 Ohio State (big-ten) +7.2 Fiesta (W 35-28 vs. Kansas State)
2008 Cincinnati (big-east) +7.2 Orange (L 7-20 vs. Virginia Tech)
2010 Connecticut (big-east) +7.1 Fiesta (L 20-48 vs. Oklahoma)
2004 Pittsburgh (big-east) +5.9 Fiesta (L 7-35 vs. Utah)
1999 Stanford (pac-10) +5.6 Rose (L 9-17 vs. Wisconsin)
2008 Virginia Tech (acc) +4.8 Orange (W 20-7 vs. Cincinnati)

6 Comments | Posted in Advanced Stats, Announcement, CFB at Sports Reference, History, Pro-Football-Reference.com, SRS, Stat Questions, Statgeekery, Trivia

Estimating Pace and Per-Possession Ratings, 1951-1973

Posted by Neil on December 6, 2013

Today, we added a new feature to Basketball-Reference: historical team Pace Factors and Offensive/Defensive Rating estimates.

As of yesterday, we only had Pace and ORtg/DRtg for NBA teams going back to 1973-74, the first season in which the league tracked team/opponent turnovers and offensive rebounds (which are, of course, necessary to the possessions formula). However, it is possible to estimate possessions for years prior to '74 -- an idea I developed casually at the old BBR Blog in 2010, and one which was expanded on in more detail by ElGee35 at his (now-defunct) blog in 2012.

5 Comments | Posted in Announcement, Basketball-Reference.com, Data, Features, History, Statgeekery

Speaking our Piece About Jack Morris

Posted by admin on December 5, 2013

I don't think it's a secret that the sabermetric case for Jack Morris is an especially thin one.  A ranking using WAR has him about the 25th best player on the ballot.  But we hear all of these stats about how much of a workhorse Morris was.  Here is an example from Tom Verducci.  Now it's true that Morris pitched into the 8th the most of his era, but when he did he was actually way below average among of group of pitchers who pitched 100+ outings of that length.

Morris worked deep in the games, but it was largely due to usage rather than effectiveness.   When he went 8 innings he was league average, when he went five innings he was league average.  The chart below shows the number of innings completed by the starter per start.  So the "0" row is not all first innings, but just the games they didn't make it out of the first inning.  Their complete games would be in the 9 row.  Now there is a value to pitching late into games and Morris should be credited by that value, but it certainly looks to me that a big reason Morris went late into games was the astronomical run support he was getting not because he was pitching so much better than the average pitcher.  Note that for outings last one inning or longer Morris' RA is WORSE than league average for every single outing length.

All AL SP's 1975-1997 Jack Morris Frank Tanana (1975 on)
completed innings % of all GS W-L% RA tmAvgRS % of all GS W-L% RA tmAvgRS % of all GS W-L% RA tmAvgRS
0 1.3 0.000 89.23 4.86 0.6 0.000 64.80 5.67 1.5 0.000 83.45 5.38
1 2.7 0.000 29.29 4.61 1.1 0.000 33.48 4.33 2.0 0.000 31.30 4.73
2 4.2 0.000 18.00 4.62 2.5 0.000 20.90 4.00 3.6 0.000 19.13 4.10
3 5.9 0.000 13.06 4.60 3.2 0.000 13.81 5.24 3.6 0.000 13.23 4.60
4 8.0 0.001 10.00 4.52 6.3 0.000 12.39 4.58 5.1 0.000 9.80 4.61
5 14.0 0.412 6.45 4.94 5.7 0.375 8.79 4.50 9.9 0.324 6.91 4.94
6 18.4 0.504 4.78 4.62 12.3 0.540 5.78 5.80 17.2 0.500 4.95 4.78
7 18.4 0.637 3.43 4.51 21.3 0.730 3.94 5.88 21.9 0.633 3.51 4.70
8 12.3 0.545 2.93 3.75 19.5 0.413 3.86 3.83 15.1 0.368 3.00 2.86
9 14.1 0.842 1.68 4.91 26.0 0.867 1.77 4.53 18.8 0.880 1.48 4.97
10 0.5 0.713 1.88 2.76 1.3 0.250 2.44 2.14 0.4 0.000 0.90 0.50
11 0.1 0.667 1.63 2.54 0.2 1.64 3.00 0.4 1.000 0.82 2.50
12 0.0 0.667 1.59 2.75 0.2 3.00 5.00
13 0.0 0.59 2.57 0.4 0.00 1.50
14 0.0 0.750 1.77 4.25

 

It seems to me if the basis of your argument for Morris in the HOF was that he pitched deep into a lot of games (and was about avg in those outings) then you have a pretty weak argument.  The summary of our view is that Morris was a pretty good pitcher on very good teams, but really is not a whole lot better than someone like David Wells or Frank Tanana.  And certainly not better than Mike Mussina or Kevin Brown.

95 Comments | Posted in Announcement, Baseball-Reference.com, Hall of Fame, Stat Questions, Statgeekery

Grand Slams with 4 Pitchers Receiving Earned Runs

Posted by admin on October 14, 2013

Last night's Ortiz Grand Slam was the first in the postseason and 8th time in the RetroSheet canon (but probably overall) that four pitchers received earned runs on one play.

| game_id      | result_batter | batting_team_id | pitching_team_id | event_text           | home      | first     | second    | third     |
+--------------+---------------+-----------------+------------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
| BOS201310130 | ortizda01     | BOS             | DET              | HR/9/L9D.3-H;2-H;1-H | benoijo01 | albural01 | smylydr01 | verasjo01 |
+--------------+---------------+-----------------+------------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
+--------------+---------------+-----------------+------------------+-------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
| game_id      | result_batter | batting_team_id | pitching_team_id | event_text              | home      | first     | second    | third     |
+--------------+---------------+-----------------+------------------+-------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
| MIN196107041 | becquju01     | MIN             | CHW              | HR/9D.3-H;2-H;1-H       | hackewa02 | baumafr01 | kemmeru01 | piercbi02 |
| SEA198208060 | jacksre01     | CAL             | SEA              | HR/9.3-H;2-H;1-H        | vandeed01 | stantmi01 | anderla02 | bannifl01 |
| DET198307100 | parrila02     | DET             | OAK              | HR/7.3-H(UR);2-H;1-H    | jonesje01 | beardda01 | burgmto01 | codirch01 |
| SFN198709200 | esaskni01     | CIN             | SFG              | HR/7D.3-H;2-H;1-H       | perlmjo01 | leffecr01 | downske01 | robindo01 |
| SEA198805060 | sheripa01     | DET             | SEA              | HR/9.3-H;2-H;1-H        | jacksmi02 | solanju01 | powelde01 | mooremi01 |
| SDN200109010 | lankfra01     | SDP             | ARI              | HR/89.3-H;2-H;1-H       | kimby01   | sabeler01 | knotter01 | batismi01 |
| LAN200410020 | finlest01     | LAD             | SFG              | HR/89/F.3-H;2-H(UR);1-H | frankwa01 | hergema01 | chrisja01 | hermadu01 |

6 Comments | Posted in Advanced Stats, Announcement, Baseball-Reference.com, History, Stat Questions, Statgeekery, Trivia

PFR Similarity Scores Updated

Posted by Neil on August 12, 2013

Just a quick note that our AV-based Similarity Scores have been updated for the first time in a few seasons, so guys like Joe Flacco now have similars.

Comments Off | Posted in Announcement, Features, History, Pro-Football-Reference.com, Statgeekery

Are you a Web Developer Who Loves Sports? Let’s Talk.

Posted by admin on August 9, 2013

Jobs @ Sports Reference.

Sports Reference has an immediate opening for a web developer. Please see our job advertisement for all of the details. We will begin reviewing applications on August 26th.

7 Comments | Posted in Advanced Stats, All-Star, Announcement, Baseball-Reference.com, Basketball-Reference.com, Bleg, CBB at Sports Reference, CFB at Sports Reference, expire21d, General, Hockey-Reference.com, Olympics at S-R, Pro-Football-Reference.com, Statgeekery

Errata: Minor Stats Corrections Coming to the Site

Posted by admin on July 15, 2013

By the nature of our update process these will take a week or two to roll out to the site, but they'll get there eventually. This note below is from one of our data producers and represent a set of updates we'll be incorporating into the site.

One of the great aspects of the baseball research community is their dogged determination to get things right even it is a mixup between Tom Maher and Frank Mahar in 1902.

1 Comment | Posted in Advanced Stats, Announcement, Baseball-Reference.com, expire40d, Statgeekery, Trivia

Approximate Value Added for Kickers and Punters

Posted by Neil on June 14, 2013

Today, we added a new feature to our popular Approximate Value metric on the site -- AV totals for kickers and punters. (Don't worry, we've warned Doug Drinen, and he hasn't suffered any adverse health side-effects that we know of.)

The methodology is described in tortuous detail on the AV formula page, but we basically looked at salary data to calibrate kicker and punter AV against our existing AV data, and used some simple metrics (kicking points added above average using distance data; punting gross yards per attempt w/ an adjustment for blocks) to measure kicking/punting performance. The best career AVs in each category are as follows:

We're still working out some AV kinks (particularly in terms of All-Pro bonuses) with certain players who played both kicker/punter and another position -- think Lou Groza -- but for the most part we're happy with the results, and we thought it was time special-teamers got their AV due.

5 Comments | Posted in Advanced Stats, Announcement, Features, History, Pro-Football-Reference.com, Statgeekery

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