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Your 2015-16 Expected +/- Leader: Joe Thornton

11th April 2016

At the beginning of the season, we introduced a new metric called Expected +/-. This statistic shows what we'd expect a player's +/- to be, based on where his team's and his opponent's shots came from while he was on the ice in even-strength situations. The expected value of these shots is based upon league-wide shooting percentages from various locations on the ice. The 2014-15 leader was Patrice Bergeron, at +21.5. With the 2015-16 regular season now completed, we're happy to announce that Joe Thornton is the 2015-16 leader at +21.7.

Since this metric considers the quality of shots (or at least their point of origin), it has an advantage over blunter instruments, like Corsi, which consider quantity, but not quality. However, unlike Corsi, Expected +/- does not include info on shots that weren't on goal, that were blocked, etc. So we see the stats as good complements for each other.

Check out the players with Expected +/- above 10 for the 2015-16 season here:

Rk Player Age Tm Pos GP E+/- ?
1 Joe Thornton 36 SJS C 82 21.7
2 Patric Hornqvist 29 PIT RW 82 20.3
3 Tomas Hertl 22 SJS C 81 19.2
4 Brian Dumoulin 24 PIT D 79 19.0
5 Joe Pavelski 31 SJS C 82 18.5
6 Justin Braun 28 SJS D 80 17.1
7 Carl Hagelin 27 TOT LW 80 17.1
8 Kris Letang 28 PIT D 71 16.7
9 Marc-Edouard Vlasic 28 SJS D 67 16.5
10 Ryan Getzlaf 30 ANA C 77 16.4
11 Brad Marchand 27 BOS LW 77 16.2
12 Hampus Lindholm 22 ANA D 80 15.2
13 Ryan Ellis 25 NSH D 79 14.7
14 Patrice Bergeron 30 BOS C 80 14.5
15 Drew Doughty 26 LAK D 82 14.5
16 John Klingberg 23 DAL D 76 14.2
17 Kris Versteeg 29 TOT RW 77 14.2
18 Anze Kopitar 28 LAK C 81 14.1
19 Colton Parayko 22 STL D 79 13.8
20 Shea Weber 30 NSH D 78 13.7
21 Jakob Silfverberg 25 ANA RW 82 13.6
22 Joonas Donskoi 23 SJS RW 76 13.5
23 Jake Muzzin 26 LAK D 82 13.5
24 Kris Versteeg 29 CAR RW 63 13.5
25 Tyler Toffoli 23 LAK C 82 13.4
26 Pavel Datsyuk 37 DET C 66 13.2
27 Trevor Daley 32 TOT D 82 13.1
28 Mikael Backlund 26 CGY C 82 13.0
29 Eric Staal 31 CAR C 63 12.9
30 Ryan Suter 31 MIN D 82 12.7
31 Jacob Trouba 21 WPG D 81 12.6
32 Carl Hagelin 27 PIT LW 37 12.4
33 Chris Kunitz 36 PIT LW 80 12.4
34 Alex Ovechkin 30 WSH LW 79 12.4
35 Mike Ribeiro 35 NSH C 81 12.3
36 Milan Lucic 27 LAK LW 81 12.2
37 Josh Manson 24 ANA D 71 12.1
38 Eric Staal 31 TOT C 83 12.1
39 Filip Forsberg 21 NSH LW 82 12.0
40 Jared Spurgeon 26 MIN D 77 11.8
41 Mattias Ekholm 25 NSH D 82 11.6
42 Tyler Seguin 24 DAL C 72 11.4
43 Dustin Byfuglien 30 WPG D 81 11.2
44 Craig Smith 26 NSH RW 82 11.2
45 Trevor Daley 32 PIT D 53 11.1
46 Marian Hossa 37 CHI RW 64 11.1
47 Phil Kessel 28 PIT RW 82 11.0
48 Victor Hedman 25 TBL D 78 10.9
49 Roman Josi 25 NSH D 81 10.9
50 Evgeny Kuznetsov 23 WSH C 82 10.9
51 Sidney Crosby 28 PIT C 80 10.7
52 David Perron 27 TOT LW 71 10.4
53 Joel Ward 35 SJS RW 79 10.4
54 Evgeni Malkin 29 PIT C 57 10.3
55 Marian Gaborik 33 LAK RW 54 10.2
56 Jeff Carter 31 LAK C 77 10.0
57 Jussi Jokinen 32 FLA LW 81 10.0
58 Justin Williams 34 WSH RW 82 10.0
Provided by Hockey-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 4/11/2016.

Posted in Advanced Stats, Announcement, Data, Hockey-Reference.com | 1 Comment »

NHL Player Similarity Scores Updated Through 2014-15

3rd February 2016

We just wanted to quickly note that Similarity Scores have been updated on player pages through 2014-15. Similarity Scores attempts to find players whose careers were similar in terms of quality and shape (but not style of play). If you go to Alex Ovechkin's page and scroll down to the Similarity Scores, you'll see that through ten seasons, his career been most similar to Jaromir Jagr's. When comparing entire careers, he scores as most similar to Sidney Crosby.

 

 

Posted in Announcement, Data, Hockey-Reference.com, Statgeekery | Comments Off on NHL Player Similarity Scores Updated Through 2014-15

Births and Deaths Added to Seasons Pages

1st February 2016

We just wanted to quickly note that each season page now has a link under the "More" tab on the far right showing players who were born or died from the September preceding the season to the August following the season.

If you see any birth/death data missing that you're able to fill in, please let us know.

Posted in Announcement, Data, History, Hockey-Reference.com | Comments Off on Births and Deaths Added to Seasons Pages

2015-16 Team Results Pages Beefed Up

29th January 2016

We have attended several columns of statistics to our team Schedule & Results pages for 2015-16. We have a page like this for each team, showing their results, as well as their upcoming games. As you can see on the page linked to, we've added a column showing shots, power play goals, power play opportunities, short-handed goals and penalty minutes for both teams. Additionally, attendance and length of game were recently added. The columns are all sortable by clicking in the top row, so you can easily find team season highs (or lows) in each statistic.

Posted in Announcement, Data, Hockey-Reference.com | 1 Comment »

NHL Rookies of the Month Added to Hockey Reference

27th January 2016

We have added NHL Rookies of the Month back to the 2005-06 season. If you have this info for any older seasons, please let us know. The Rookie of the Month winners can be accessed via our larger Awards section.

Posted in Announcement, Awards, Data, History, Hockey-Reference.com | Comments Off on NHL Rookies of the Month Added to Hockey Reference

Advanced Hockey Stats on Hockey Reference

18th January 2016

If you're among the NHL fans lamenting the upcoming shuttering of War on Ice, we just wanted to remind you of the variety of advanced hockey stats we offer on Hockey Reference. While we're perhaps best known as a repository for historical statistics, we have beefed up our analytics in the last few years. In fact, if you click here, you can conveniently see a menu of our analytics offerings. These include:

Posted in Advanced Stats, Announcement, Data, Hockey-Reference.com, Play Index, Statgeekery | Comments Off on Advanced Hockey Stats on Hockey Reference

Game-Winning Goals Added to Hockey Reference Play Index

15th January 2016

We have added Game-Winning Goals to the Player Season Finder search in the Hockey Reference Play Index. GWG data is available back the 1963-64 regular season and the 1968 Stanley Cup Playoffs. With this new search capability, you can now quickly and easily see that Phil Esposito (twice) and Michel Goulet share the single-season record over this span with 16 game-winning goals. You can also discover that the career leader over this span is Jaromir Jagr, with 132. The playoff leaders, with 24 each, are Wayne Gretzky and Brett Hull. The record for a single Stanley Cup Playoffs is 7 by Brad Richards in 2003-04.

Posted in Announcement, Data, Hockey-Reference.com, Play Index | Comments Off on Game-Winning Goals Added to Hockey Reference Play Index

2015-16 NHL Salaries Table Added

11th November 2015

We just wanted to make a quick announcement that we've added a table with all player salaries for the 2015-16 season. This data was previously available on player and team pages, but it's now available as a sortable list with the salaries and cap hits for all players in the league season. This data is accessible from our frivolities page.

Posted in Announcement, Data, Hockey-Reference.com | Comments Off on 2015-16 NHL Salaries Table Added

Time on Ice & Shift Details Added to Hockey Reference

20th October 2015

We just wanted to quickly note that we have added new tables of information to the bottom of team pages and also to the seasonal skater registers back to 2007-08.

These tables show average shift length for every player, and also breakdowns of time and performance at even strength, on the power play and shorthanded.

These new tables allow users to dig up the following info, among other things:

We hope you enjoy this new information. If you have any comments or questions, please reach out to us here.

 

Posted in Advanced Stats, Announcement, Data, Hockey-Reference.com | Comments Off on Time on Ice & Shift Details Added to Hockey Reference

Introducing NHL Expected +/-

7th October 2015

Hockey Reference is excited to introduce a new advanced hockey statistic we're calling Expected +/-. This new metric, utilizing league-wide shot location data, shows what we'd expect a player's +/- to be, based on where his team's shots and his opponent's shots came from while we has on the ice in even strength situations. The expected value of these shots is based upon league-wide shooting percentages from the various locations.

We have calculated the statistic for 2014-15 thus far, and will be calculating it for seasons moving forward, as well. As we get more shot location data, these values will eventually be based on three-year rolling averages, but as of now, 2014-15 is based entirely upon 2014-15 shot location data. When we say three-year rolling averages, what we mean is that, eventually, 2015-16 Expected +/- will be based upon shooting percentages from various locations on the ice from 2014-15 to 2016-17.

Here's the 2014-15 leaders:

Rk Player Age Tm Pos GP E+/- ?
1 Patrice Bergeron 29 BOS C 81 21.5
2 Nick Leddy 23 NYI D 78 19.6
3 Anders Lee 24 NYI C 76 19.6
4 John Tavares 24 NYI C 82 19.6
5 Anton Stralman 28 TBL D 82 17.6
6 Ryan Strome 21 NYI C 81 17.5
7 Nikita Kucherov 21 TBL RW 82 17.2
8 Brad Marchand 26 BOS LW 77 17.1
9 Brock Nelson 23 NYI C 82 17.1
10 Joe Thornton 35 SJS C 78 17.1
Provided by Hockey-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/7/2015.

As you can see, the Expected +/- leaderboard differs quite a bit from the actual +/- leaderboard, with only Nikita Kucherov appearing in the top ten of both. Expected +/- can potentially help identify some of the luck factor in raw +/- numbers:

Rk Player Age Tm Pos GP +/- ?
1 Nikita Kucherov 21 TBL RW 82 38
2 Max Pacioretty 26 MTL LW 80 38
3 Tyler Johnson 24 TBL C 77 33
4 Ondrej Palat 23 TBL LW 75 31
5 Jonathan Toews 26 CHI C 81 30
6 Rick Nash 30 NYR LW 79 29
7 Jason Garrison 30 TBL D 70 27
8 Vladimir Tarasenko 23 STL RW 77 27
9 Derek Stepan 24 NYR C 68 26
10 Blake Wheeler 28 WPG RW 79 26
Provided by Hockey-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/7/2015.

Since this metric considers the quality of shots (or at least their point of origin), it has an advantage over blunter instruments, like Corsi, which consider quantity, but not quality. However, unlike Corsi, Expected +/- does not include info on shots that weren't on goal, that were blocked, etc. So we see the stats as good complements for each other.

Currently, Expected +/- can be found for all players on the advanced tab of the 2014-15 Skaters register. Additionally, it can found in the Miscellaneous table on player pages.

On a game level, we have added shot charts to our box scores, as well. In the future, we plan to add heat maps showing shooting percentages by location for players, goalies, teams and league seasons. We will also be incorporating Expected +/- into our Player Advanced Stats Finder to allow for customized searches on this metric.

Finally, we would like to thank Wesley Yue for his valuable contributions to this concept.

Posted in Advanced Stats, Announcement, Data, Hockey-Reference.com | Comments Off on Introducing NHL Expected +/-