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Win Probability Graphs for All Super Bowls

Posted by Mike on January 9, 2014

We've added win probability graphs to every Super Bowl, from I to XLVII, from exciting to not-so-exciting. For years prior to 1999, play times were extrapolated from drive start and end times listed in the NFL Gamebooks for those games. For example, if we know this 8-play Rams drive in Super Bowl XIV started at 7:25 and ended at 3:20 with a touchdown, we estimate that each play took roughly 35 seconds off the clock. These are imperfect estimates (obviously the clock will stop on an incomplete pass or an injury and certain plays take longer to run than others), but they are close enough to allow us to calculate a pretty close approximation of the win probability for that given moment.

3 Comments | Posted in Advanced Stats, Announcement, Pro-Football-Reference.com

Job: User Affairs Coordinator @ Sports Reference

Posted by sean on January 6, 2014

User Affairs Coordinator @ Sports Reference.

Yes, we'll pay you money to spend all day answering questions about sports. Please pass along this job ad to anyone you might think would be interested.

5 Comments | Posted in Advanced Stats, Announcement, Baseball-Reference.com, Basketball-Reference.com, CBB at Sports Reference, CFB at Sports Reference, Expire30d, Hockey-Reference.com, Olympics at S-R, Pro-Football-Reference.com, Statgeekery, Tips and Tricks, WAR

Where Does Florida State Rank Entering the BCS Championship Game?

Posted by Neil on December 9, 2013

Chase asked where FSU's +42.3 pre-bowl PPG differential ranked among all BCS-bowl teams historically, so I thought I'd run a quick database search:

Year School Pre-Bowl MOV Bowl
2013 Florida State (acc) +42.3 BCSCG (vs. Auburn)
2005 Texas (big-12) +36.3 Rose (W 41-38 vs. Southern California)
2001 Miami (FL) (big-east) +33.8 Rose (W 37-14 vs. Nebraska)
2008 Florida (sec) +32.3 BCSCG (W 24-14 vs. Oklahoma)
2000 Florida State (acc) +32.2 Orange (L 2-13 vs. Oklahoma)
2013 Baylor (big-12) +32.1 Fiesta (vs. Central Florida)
2010 Texas Christian (mwc) +31.9 Rose (W 21-19 vs. Wisconsin)
2010 Oregon (pac-10) +30.9 BCSCG (L 19-22 vs. Auburn)
1999 Virginia Tech (big-east) +30.8 Sugar (L 29-46 vs. Florida State)
2003 Oklahoma (big-12) +30.3 Sugar (L 14-21 vs. Louisiana State)
2008 Southern California (pac-10) +29.8 Rose (W 38-24 vs. Penn State)
2001 Florida (sec) +29.7 Orange (W 56-23 vs. Maryland)
2008 Oklahoma (big-12) +29.5 BCSCG (L 14-24 vs. Florida)
2012 Oregon (pac-12) +28.8 Fiesta (W 35-17 vs. Kansas State)
2005 Southern California (pac-10) +28.7 Rose (L 38-41 vs. Texas)
2007 Kansas (big-12) +28.3 Orange (W 24-21 vs. Virginia Tech)
2009 Texas Christian (mwc) +28.3 Fiesta (L 10-17 vs. Boise State)
2011 Louisiana State (sec) +27.9 BCSCG (L 0-21 vs. Alabama)
2012 Alabama (sec) +27.8 BCSCG (W 42-14 vs. Notre Dame)
2008 Penn State (big-ten) +27.8 Rose (L 24-38 vs. Southern California)
2011 Wisconsin (big-ten) +27.6 Rose (L 38-45 vs. Oregon)
2013 Alabama (sec) +27.4 Sugar (vs. Oklahoma)
2000 Miami (FL) (big-east) +27.2 Sugar (W 37-20 vs. Florida)
2011 Alabama (sec) +27.2 BCSCG (W 21-0 vs. Louisiana State)
2009 Boise State (wac) +26.5 Fiesta (W 17-10 vs. Texas Christian)
2010 Ohio State (big-ten) +26.1 Sugar (W 31-26 vs. Arkansas)
2006 Ohio State (big-ten) +25.9 BCSCG (L 14-41 vs. Florida)
2004 Utah (mwc) +25.6 Fiesta (W 35-7 vs. Pittsburgh)
2009 Texas (big-12) +25.5 BCSCG (L 21-37 vs. Alabama)
2008 Texas (big-12) +25.3 Fiesta (W 24-21 vs. Ohio State)
2007 Oklahoma (big-12) +25.2 Fiesta (L 28-48 vs. West Virginia)
1998 Ohio State (big-ten) +25.1 Sugar (W 24-14 vs. Texas A&M)
2013 Ohio State (big-ten) +25.0 Orange (vs. Clemson)
2012 Florida State (acc) +24.8 Orange (W 31-10 vs. Northern Illinois)
2004 Southern California (pac-10) +24.3 Orange (W 55-19 vs. Oklahoma)
2003 Louisiana State (sec) +24.2 Sugar (W 21-14 vs. Oklahoma)
2006 Boise State (wac) +23.8 Fiesta (W 43-42 vs. Oklahoma)
2002 Miami (FL) (big-east) +23.8 Fiesta (L 24-31 vs. Ohio State)
2011 Oklahoma State (big-12) +23.5 Fiesta (W 41-38 vs. Stanford)
2002 Oklahoma (big-12) +23.5 Rose (W 34-14 vs. Washington State)
2003 Southern California (pac-10) +23.4 Rose (W 28-14 vs. Michigan)
2011 Stanford (pac-12) +23.3 Fiesta (L 38-41 vs. Oklahoma State)
2009 Florida (sec) +23.2 Sugar (W 51-24 vs. Cincinnati)
2000 Oklahoma (big-12) +23.0 Orange (W 13-2 vs. Florida State)
2010 Wisconsin (big-ten) +22.8 Rose (L 19-21 vs. Texas Christian)
2011 Oregon (pac-12) +22.5 Rose (W 45-38 vs. Wisconsin)
2010 Stanford (pac-10) +22.5 Orange (W 40-12 vs. Virginia Tech)
1999 Wisconsin (big-ten) +22.5 Rose (W 17-9 vs. Stanford)
2004 Oklahoma (big-12) +22.4 Orange (L 19-55 vs. Southern California)
2006 Louisville (big-east) +22.3 Orange (W 24-13 vs. Wake Forest)
2003 Kansas State (big-12) +22.3 Fiesta (L 28-35 vs. Ohio State)
2004 Auburn (sec) +22.3 Sugar (W 16-13 vs. Virginia Tech)
2007 Hawaii (wac) +22.0 Sugar (L 10-41 vs. Georgia)
2012 Northern Illinois (mac) +21.8 Orange (L 10-31 vs. Florida State)
1999 Nebraska (big-12) +21.8 Fiesta (W 31-21 vs. Tennessee)
2007 West Virginia (big-east) +21.7 Fiesta (W 48-28 vs. Oklahoma)
2001 Nebraska (big-12) +21.7 Rose (L 14-37 vs. Miami (FL))
1999 Florida State (acc) +21.6 Sugar (W 46-29 vs. Virginia Tech)
2007 Ohio State (big-ten) +21.3 BCSCG (L 24-38 vs. Louisiana State)
2003 Michigan (big-ten) +21.3 Rose (L 14-28 vs. Southern California)
1998 Wisconsin (big-ten) +21.1 Rose (W 38-31 vs. UCLA)
2002 Iowa (big-ten) +20.8 Orange (L 17-38 vs. Southern California)
2009 Alabama (sec) +20.7 BCSCG (W 37-21 vs. Texas)
2006 Louisiana State (sec) +20.6 Sugar (W 41-14 vs. Notre Dame)
1998 Florida State (acc) +20.6 Fiesta (L 16-23 vs. Tennessee)
2008 Utah (mwc) +20.2 Sugar (W 31-17 vs. Alabama)
2004 Virginia Tech (acc) +19.7 Sugar (L 13-16 vs. Auburn)
2012 Kansas State (big-12) +19.6 Fiesta (L 17-35 vs. Oregon)
1998 Tennessee (sec) +19.6 Fiesta (W 23-16 vs. Florida State)
2009 Cincinnati (big-east) +19.1 Sugar (L 24-51 vs. Florida)
2013 Clemson (acc) +19.1 Orange (vs. Ohio State)
2007 Louisiana State (sec) +19.1 BCSCG (W 38-24 vs. Ohio State)
2004 Texas (big-12) +18.8 Rose (W 38-37 vs. Michigan)
2005 Penn State (big-ten) +18.7 Orange (W 26-23 vs. Florida State)
2010 Auburn (sec) +18.2 BCSCG (W 22-19 vs. Oregon)
2008 Alabama (sec) +18.2 Sugar (L 17-31 vs. Utah)
1998 Syracuse (big-east) +18.1 Orange (L 10-31 vs. Florida)
2005 Ohio State (big-ten) +17.7 Fiesta (W 34-20 vs. Notre Dame)
2000 Florida (sec) +17.7 Sugar (L 20-37 vs. Miami (FL))
1998 Florida (sec) +17.6 Orange (W 31-10 vs. Syracuse)
2002 Georgia (sec) +17.3 Sugar (W 26-13 vs. Florida State)
2009 Ohio State (big-ten) +17.1 Rose (W 26-17 vs. Oregon)
2013 Michigan State (big-ten) +17.1 Rose (vs. Stanford)
2011 Michigan (big-ten) +17.0 Sugar (W 23-20 vs. Virginia Tech)
2003 Florida State (acc) +17.0 Orange (L 14-16 vs. Miami (FL))
2002 Southern California (pac-10) +17.0 Orange (W 38-17 vs. Iowa)
2002 Ohio State (big-ten) +16.9 Fiesta (W 31-24 vs. Miami (FL))
1999 Tennessee (sec) +16.8 Fiesta (L 21-31 vs. Nebraska)
2010 Virginia Tech (acc) +16.5 Orange (L 12-40 vs. Stanford)
2012 Notre Dame (independent) +16.4 BCSCG (L 14-42 vs. Alabama)
2001 Maryland (acc) +16.4 Orange (L 23-56 vs. Florida)
2013 Auburn (sec) +16.2 BCSCG (vs. Florida State)
2006 Michigan (big-ten) +15.6 Rose (L 18-32 vs. Southern California)
2006 Southern California (pac-10) +15.4 Rose (W 32-18 vs. Michigan)
2006 Florida (sec) +15.4 BCSCG (W 41-14 vs. Ohio State)
2007 Southern California (pac-10) +15.3 Rose (W 49-17 vs. Illinois)
2005 West Virginia (big-east) +15.3 Sugar (W 38-35 vs. Georgia)
2008 Ohio State (big-ten) +15.1 Fiesta (L 21-24 vs. Texas)
2013 Stanford (pac-12) +14.6 Rose (vs. Michigan State)
2010 Arkansas (sec) +14.6 Sugar (L 26-31 vs. Ohio State)
2005 Notre Dame (independent) +14.5 Fiesta (L 20-34 vs. Ohio State)
2005 Georgia (sec) +14.5 Sugar (L 35-38 vs. West Virginia)
2010 Oklahoma (big-12) +14.5 Fiesta (W 48-20 vs. Connecticut)
2000 Oregon State (pac-10) +14.2 Fiesta (W 41-9 vs. Notre Dame)
2009 Oregon (pac-10) +14.1 Rose (L 17-26 vs. Ohio State)
2006 Oklahoma (big-12) +14.1 Fiesta (L 42-43 vs. Boise State)
2007 Virginia Tech (acc) +13.8 Orange (L 21-24 vs. Kansas)
2012 Florida (sec) +13.8 Sugar (L 23-33 vs. Louisville)
2003 Miami (FL) (big-east) +13.6 Orange (W 16-14 vs. Florida State)
2013 Central Florida (american) +13.6 Fiesta (vs. Baylor)
1998 UCLA (pac-10) +13.0 Rose (L 31-38 vs. Wisconsin)
2002 Washington State (pac-10) +12.9 Rose (L 14-34 vs. Oklahoma)
2001 Oregon (pac-10) +12.2 Fiesta (W 38-16 vs. Colorado)
2012 Wisconsin (big-ten) +11.7 Rose (L 14-20 vs. Stanford)
2000 Purdue (big-ten) +11.4 Rose (L 24-34 vs. Washington)
2011 Virginia Tech (acc) +11.3 Sugar (L 20-23 vs. Michigan)
2012 Stanford (pac-12) +11.0 Rose (W 20-14 vs. Wisconsin)
2007 Georgia (sec) +10.9 Sugar (W 41-10 vs. Hawaii)
2002 Florida State (acc) +10.8 Sugar (L 13-26 vs. Georgia)
2001 Illinois (big-ten) +10.7 Sugar (L 34-47 vs. Louisiana State)
2000 Notre Dame (independent) +10.7 Fiesta (L 9-41 vs. Oregon State)
2013 Oklahoma (big-12) +10.5 Sugar (vs. Alabama)
2009 Georgia Tech (acc) +10.5 Orange (L 14-24 vs. Iowa)
1999 Michigan (big-ten) +10.3 Orange (W 35-34 vs. Alabama)
1998 Texas A&M (big-12) +10.1 Sugar (L 14-24 vs. Ohio State)
2006 Notre Dame (independent) +10.0 Sugar (L 14-41 vs. Louisiana State)
2000 Washington (pac-10) +9.7 Rose (W 34-24 vs. Purdue)
2001 Colorado (big-12) +9.7 Fiesta (L 16-38 vs. Oregon)
1999 Alabama (sec) +9.5 Orange (L 34-35 vs. Michigan)
2007 Illinois (big-ten) +9.3 Rose (L 17-49 vs. Southern California)
2011 West Virginia (big-east) +8.7 Orange (W 70-33 vs. Clemson)
2001 Louisiana State (sec) +8.6 Sugar (W 47-34 vs. Illinois)
2004 Michigan (big-ten) +8.4 Rose (L 37-38 vs. Texas)
2005 Florida State (acc) +7.8 Orange (L 23-26 vs. Penn State)
2009 Iowa (big-ten) +7.6 Orange (W 24-14 vs. Georgia Tech)
2006 Wake Forest (acc) +7.5 Orange (L 13-24 vs. Louisville)
2011 Clemson (acc) +7.5 Orange (L 33-70 vs. West Virginia)
2012 Louisville (big-east) +7.2 Sugar (W 33-23 vs. Florida)
2003 Ohio State (big-ten) +7.2 Fiesta (W 35-28 vs. Kansas State)
2008 Cincinnati (big-east) +7.2 Orange (L 7-20 vs. Virginia Tech)
2010 Connecticut (big-east) +7.1 Fiesta (L 20-48 vs. Oklahoma)
2004 Pittsburgh (big-east) +5.9 Fiesta (L 7-35 vs. Utah)
1999 Stanford (pac-10) +5.6 Rose (L 9-17 vs. Wisconsin)
2008 Virginia Tech (acc) +4.8 Orange (W 20-7 vs. Cincinnati)

6 Comments | Posted in Advanced Stats, Announcement, CFB at Sports Reference, History, Pro-Football-Reference.com, SRS, Stat Questions, Statgeekery, Trivia

2014 Official Hall of Fame Ballot w/ Stats & JAWS measures

Posted by admin on November 26, 2013

2014 Official Hall of Fame Ballot w/ Stats & JAWS Measures.

Just a one-stop area for your HOF ballot needs. Thanks to Jay Jaffe of SI.com for the use of his JAWS numbers on our site.

14 Comments | Posted in Advanced Stats, Announcement, Baseball-Reference.com

Win Probability Calculator

Posted by Mike on November 6, 2013

By now you've likely seen our win probability tweets or the graphs on box score pages. Today I've pushed out a win probability calculator into which you can put any game situation & get a corresponding win probability. For instance, say it's the 4th quarter and you're trailing by 2 with the ball on your own 20 at 2nd & 10 and 29 seconds remaining, the calculator says you have a 3.8% probability of winning (don't tell the Jets that, though).

Looking at this weekend's Bears-Packers game, we can figure out the risk the Bears took in going for it on 4th and 1 on their own 32 in the 4th quarter. If they fail and the Packers take over at that spot, Green Bay will have a 55.9% win probability (ignoring that our model knows nothing about Aaron Rodgers' injury, of course). However, by succeeding Chicago raised their own win probability to 80.6%.

11 Comments | Posted in Advanced Stats, Announcement, Pro-Football-Reference.com

Added Advanced Stats to NBA Playoff Series Pages

Posted by Neil on October 16, 2013

Just a quick note that our NBA Playoff Series pages now have advanced stats tables, so you can learn that, for instance, Chris Andersen and Chauncey Billups both had Offensive Ratings north of 150 in this 2009 playoff series.

We also added Four Factors tables to the series summary pages, wherein you'll find nuggets like Phoenix's ridiculous 122.7 team Offensive Rating against the Warriors in this 1994 series. Enjoy!

1 Comment | Posted in Advanced Stats, Announcement, Basketball-Reference.com, Features, Playoffs

Grand Slams with 4 Pitchers Receiving Earned Runs

Posted by admin on October 14, 2013

Last night's Ortiz Grand Slam was the first in the postseason and 8th time in the RetroSheet canon (but probably overall) that four pitchers received earned runs on one play.

| game_id      | result_batter | batting_team_id | pitching_team_id | event_text           | home      | first     | second    | third     |
+--------------+---------------+-----------------+------------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
| BOS201310130 | ortizda01     | BOS             | DET              | HR/9/L9D.3-H;2-H;1-H | benoijo01 | albural01 | smylydr01 | verasjo01 |
+--------------+---------------+-----------------+------------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
+--------------+---------------+-----------------+------------------+-------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
| game_id      | result_batter | batting_team_id | pitching_team_id | event_text              | home      | first     | second    | third     |
+--------------+---------------+-----------------+------------------+-------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
| MIN196107041 | becquju01     | MIN             | CHW              | HR/9D.3-H;2-H;1-H       | hackewa02 | baumafr01 | kemmeru01 | piercbi02 |
| SEA198208060 | jacksre01     | CAL             | SEA              | HR/9.3-H;2-H;1-H        | vandeed01 | stantmi01 | anderla02 | bannifl01 |
| DET198307100 | parrila02     | DET             | OAK              | HR/7.3-H(UR);2-H;1-H    | jonesje01 | beardda01 | burgmto01 | codirch01 |
| SFN198709200 | esaskni01     | CIN             | SFG              | HR/7D.3-H;2-H;1-H       | perlmjo01 | leffecr01 | downske01 | robindo01 |
| SEA198805060 | sheripa01     | DET             | SEA              | HR/9.3-H;2-H;1-H        | jacksmi02 | solanju01 | powelde01 | mooremi01 |
| SDN200109010 | lankfra01     | SDP             | ARI              | HR/89.3-H;2-H;1-H       | kimby01   | sabeler01 | knotter01 | batismi01 |
| LAN200410020 | finlest01     | LAD             | SFG              | HR/89/F.3-H;2-H(UR);1-H | frankwa01 | hergema01 | chrisja01 | hermadu01 |

6 Comments | Posted in Advanced Stats, Announcement, Baseball-Reference.com, History, Stat Questions, Statgeekery, Trivia

Win Probability Explained

Posted by Mike on October 7, 2013

You may have seen our in-game Tweets and the win probability graphs on our box score pages -- we now have a detailed explanation of the win probability methodology from Neil Paine if you're curious how it works.

1 Comment | Posted in Advanced Stats, Announcement, Pro-Football-Reference.com

2013 Sim Scores Updated – Baseball-Reference.com

Posted by admin on September 30, 2013

Mike Trout Statistics and History - Baseball-Reference.com.

Ignoring for the moment there is another game to play tonight, I ran the sim scores this afternoon and uploaded the pages. I'll get around to rerunning them tomorrow, probably for the Rays and Rangers. Here is our explanation of sim scores.

1 Comment | Posted in Advanced Stats, Announcement, Baseball-Reference.com

Are you a Web Developer Who Loves Sports? Let’s Talk.

Posted by admin on August 9, 2013

Jobs @ Sports Reference.

Sports Reference has an immediate opening for a web developer. Please see our job advertisement for all of the details. We will begin reviewing applications on August 26th.

7 Comments | Posted in Advanced Stats, All-Star, Announcement, Baseball-Reference.com, Basketball-Reference.com, Bleg, CBB at Sports Reference, CFB at Sports Reference, expire21d, General, Hockey-Reference.com, Olympics at S-R, Pro-Football-Reference.com, Statgeekery

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