Sports Reference Blog

We're a little past the halfway point in the college football season, and things are heating up. The real contenders have separated themselves from the pack and the playoff committee is already making baffling choices in its voting.

As the calendar turns to November, we thought it would be a good idea to revisit the Heisman Trophy race. Of course, we looked at the Heisman candidates before the season started, breaking down who had the best chance at the award with 100% accuracy. There's no need to revisit that post, in fact; you can just take my word for the fact that all my predictions have completely panned out.

Still, with a little over a month to go, it's time to check back in on the race and see who has separated themselves from the pack and what they still have to prove.

Lamar Jackson, Louisville Cardinal

If the race seems somewhat underwhelming this year, it's because one person has so thoroughly run away with it. Through 8 games, it's difficult to make a case for anyone besides Jackson for the trophy. Jackson is at the helm of the nation's 6th best offense (according to OSRS), in both the top 10 for adjusted yards per pass attempt AND the top 30 for yards per rushing attempt, and leads the nation in rushing touchdowns.

In fact, through 8 games, Jackson is tied for the record for most rushing TDs by a QB in the Play Index era (since 2000), and out of that group, he has far and away the most passing touchdowns.

In fact, this has been a banner year for QBs putting numbers on the board. Here's the top 10 for most TDs of any kind, through 8 games, since 2000:

What Patrick Mahomes has done is impressive in its own right, but it seems unlikely that the Heisman committee would opt for him over someone with the same scoring numbers, but a much stronger narrative case.

How can Jackson lose? You could point to the fact that, since the Playoff started, the Heisman winner hasn't come from a team that missed the final four. But, since we're talking about a two-year sample size, that's hardly much of a precedent.

You can also knock Louisville for schedule strength. They've played the 55th toughest schedule and have no ranked opponents remaining. But the Houston Cougars are a top 40 team, according to Simple Rating System, and the Boston College Eagles have a strong defense, even if it's taken a step back from last season.

More to the point, Jackson has probably done enough already, against high level opposition, that the remaining schedule is probably beneficial for him. Without any obvious landmines looming, if Jackson can just power through the remaining games at a level close to where he's been so far this year, then the trophy should be his.

So, end of column? Not quite; if Jackson's not going to lose the award on his own, it's worth considering who could sweep in and take if from him.

Deshaun Watson, Clemson Tigers

Hey, Watson did beat Jackson head-to-head, right? Unfortunately, in just about every metric besides W-L record, 2016 has been a big step back for the preseason frontrunner.

By AY/A, Watson's lost almost a full yard per attempt from his 2015 level. His passer efficiency rating is down to 145.9 and he's already thrown 10 interceptions after throwing 13 over a full season last year. One more pick and Watson will be at a point where his chances begin to look quite remote. While a few people have won the Heisman with 10 INTs, it's been 16 years since someone won it with 11 (Chris Weinke in 2000).

Watson has also lost his effectiveness as a runner. His overall workload is down, from 13.8 rushing attempts per game to 10.9, but more importantly, so is his efficiency (3.7 y/c this year vs 5.3 in 2015).

At this point, the damage may just be too great. Even with a clear path to the Playoffs, Watson would need to score 3 TDs a game, and for Jackson to not score again for the rest of the season, to surpass the Louisville QB in TDs. The hole is just too deep at this point.

Jake Browning, Washington Huskies

If you're hunting for a credible Jackson alternative, Browning's probably your guy. He doesn't have Jackson's gawdy rushing stats, but he's thrown for more TDs and fewer INTs, and his eye-popping 12.1 AY/A ranks second in FBS, behind preseason Heisman frontrunner and Oklahoma Sooners QB Baker Mayfield.

The problem is that, in trying to make a case that Browning is better than Jackson, I've realized it's difficult to even make the case he's been better than Mayfield. He has more TDs and fewer INTs, but Mayfield has thrown way more attempts and plays in a higher rated offense, per OSRS.

The only real edge Browning has is his W-L record, which is mainly a product of the fact that Browning plays on a team with the 7th best defense, while Mayfield plays with the 103rd. Unless either of these guys is actually playing free safety without anyone realizing it, it doesn't make a lot of sense to factor that in.

And that's not even considering Mahomes and Davis Webb who have just as strong a claim to being 2016's best passing QB. Barring a Jackson collapse, it doesn't seem like any of the more passing-oriented QBs will be able to separate themselves from the pack to swipe the award.

Jabrill Peppers, Michigan Wolverines

If anyone besides Jackson can make a case for winning the award, in my opinion, it's Peppers. He's the best player on what's either the best or second best team in the nation, he contributes in literally every phase of the game, and he's extremely fun to watch. He also fits the profile of the last defensive player to win the Heisman, Charles Woodson, who was a Michigan defender who also made significant contributions on offense and special teams.

Still, Peppers is going to stumble from two perspectives. On a narrative level, it's going to be hard for to put the team on his back and carry them the way Jackson did in last weekend's comeback win against the Virginia Cavaliers, and very nearly did against Clemson. And, from a statistical perspective, it'll be harder to quantify his defensive contributions, since he doesn't put up gaudy sack numbers or play in an interception-heavy position.

So yeah, this is Jackson's award to lose. But it's also by no means a cake-walk. With a couple tough defenses still left, there's just enough time for something crazy to happen. But something crazy is probably what it will take to stop Louisville from claiming their first Heisman winner in school history.

This entry was posted on Thursday, November 3rd, 2016 at 12:19 pm and is filed under Announcement, CFB at Sports Reference. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.