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Win Probability Graphs for All Super Bowls

Posted by Mike on January 9, 2014

We've added win probability graphs to every Super Bowl, from I to XLVII, from exciting to not-so-exciting. For years prior to 1999, play times were extrapolated from drive start and end times listed in the NFL Gamebooks for those games. For example, if we know this 8-play Rams drive in Super Bowl XIV started at 7:25 and ended at 3:20 with a touchdown, we estimate that each play took roughly 35 seconds off the clock. These are imperfect estimates (obviously the clock will stop on an incomplete pass or an injury and certain plays take longer to run than others), but they are close enough to allow us to calculate a pretty close approximation of the win probability for that given moment.

This entry was posted on Thursday, January 9th, 2014 at 9:30 am and is filed under Advanced Stats, Announcement, You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.

3 Responses to “Win Probability Graphs for All Super Bowls”

  1. Greg ralls Says:

    This is incredibly awesome! Do you think this will be something that might be added to Hockey Reference at some point?

  2. Greg, it's definitely something we can add to the list of potential enhancements and consider it in the future.

  3. Thanks, Hans! I'm always a hockey guy first, and I think this would be cool to see somewhere down the line.

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