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CBB: Use Our Adjusted Power Ratings to Fill Out Your Brackets

Posted by Neil on March 14, 2012

At the beginning of the 2011-12 NCAA Basketball season, we began to calculate Adjusted Offensive and Defensive Ratings for each team. In a nutshell, these ratings measure a team's offensive and defensive abilities independent of the pace at which they play. Since raw PPG totals can be greatly influenced by how many possessions a team has to score and defend, per-possession metrics more accurately reflect a team's true skill levels (pace is largely a choice, and it has almost no correlation to how good a team is at scoring and defending on a per-possession basis).

Here were the best teams during the regular season by adjusted net rating (adjusted Offensive Rating minus adjusted Defensive Rating):

Overall Adjusted
Rk School Conf W L ORtg/A DRtg/A NRtg/A ▾
1 KentuckyR SEC 32 2 119.1 82.8 36.3
2 Ohio StateR Big Ten 27 7 115.6 79.9 35.7
3 Michigan StateRT Big Ten 27 7 114.1 81.0 33.0
4 KansasR Big 12 27 6 115.9 83.5 32.4
5 MissouriT Big 12 30 4 123.2 92.5 30.8
6 SyracuseR Big East 31 2 115.3 84.6 30.7
7 Wisconsin* Big Ten 24 9 111.4 81.2 30.2
8 North CarolinaR ACC 29 5 114.4 84.4 30.0
9 Indiana* Big Ten 25 8 118.7 90.8 27.8
10 Wichita StateR MVC 27 5 114.5 87.8 26.7
11 Duke* ACC 27 6 116.9 91.2 25.7
12 MemphisRT CUSA 26 8 112.5 86.8 25.7
13 Georgetown* Big East 23 8 109.3 84.2 25.1
14 Florida* SEC 23 10 119.0 94.1 24.9
15 Baylor* Big 12 27 7 113.3 88.8 24.6
16 Marquette* Big East 25 7 111.5 87.9 23.6
17 New MexicoRT MWC 27 6 108.6 85.3 23.3
18 Saint Louis* A-10 25 7 108.9 85.6 23.3
19 VanderbiltT SEC 24 10 112.7 89.7 23.0
20 LouisvilleT Big East 26 9 104.0 81.5 22.5
21 Kansas State* Big 12 21 10 108.1 86.3 21.8
22 Florida StateT ACC 24 9 105.3 83.9 21.5
23 MichiganR Big Ten 24 9 112.6 91.4 21.2
24 California* Pac-12 24 9 109.4 88.3 21.1
25 Texas* Big 12 20 13 111.2 90.2 21.1
Provided by Sports-Reference.com/CBB: View Original Table
Generated 3/14/2012.

The "adjusted" part means these stats also take into account a team's strength of schedule. Because of this, you can use these metrics to get a better gauge on who will win in the NCAA Tournament. Plugging the adjusted ratings into the Pythagorean Formula and simulating the tournament 10,000 times, here were the odds of each team reaching each round ("TCPts" = expected ESPN Tournament Challenge points):

Team               Rd32   Sw16    El8    F4    Title  Champ  TCPts
------------------------------------------------------------------
Kentucky           .987   .849   .633   .508   .349   .206   214.7
Ohio St.           .975   .837   .700   .472   .327   .204   209.9
Michigan St.       .976   .702   .543   .389   .223   .126   152.5
Kansas             .949   .764   .580   .384   .192   .102   141.9
North Carolina     .942   .686   .522   .289   .126   .062   107.0
Wisconsin          .916   .692   .405   .202   .119   .063    94.4
Syracuse           .943   .706   .403   .182   .103   .050    86.6
Missouri           .971   .613   .441   .206   .097   .040    84.4
Duke               .879   .626   .371   .125   .048   .016    59.0
Baylor             .795   .526   .305   .098   .039   .011    48.3
Georgetown         .718   .523   .213   .111   .037   .014    45.5
Indiana            .813   .458   .157   .090   .044   .018    43.4
Marquette          .717   .552   .237   .083   .031   .009    42.1
Wichita St.        .795   .440   .152   .092   .039   .014    40.9
Louisville         .805   .461   .143   .072   .026   .008    35.6
New Mexico         .726   .395   .124   .059   .021   .008    30.9

Team               Rd32   Sw16    El8    F4    Title  Champ  TCPts
------------------------------------------------------------------
Michigan           .761   .428   .151   .049   .013   .003    29.2
Florida St.        .753   .428   .115   .041   .015   .004    27.7
UNLV               .701   .319   .148   .036   .010   .002    24.5
Memphis            .544   .172   .103   .054   .023   .008    23.5
Florida            .527   .205   .122   .043   .014   .004    21.3
Alabama            .589   .199   .112   .040   .011   .003    20.4
Kansas St.         .746   .244   .088   .025   .010   .002    20.1
Vanderbilt         .716   .236   .084   .025   .009   .003    19.7
Virginia           .474   .180   .105   .035   .012   .004    18.5
California         .436   .253   .094   .031   .007   .002    17.5
Texas              .556   .288   .066   .020   .006   .001    16.9
Purdue             .591   .149   .070   .027   .007   .002    15.7
Notre Dame         .583   .216   .084   .015   .003   .000    15.3
Saint Louis        .456   .124   .065   .034   .012   .003    15.2
N.C. St.           .547   .191   .041   .011   .002   .000    12.2
Cincinnati         .444   .205   .039   .009   .003   .002    11.8

Team               Rd32   Sw16    El8    F4    Title  Champ  TCPts
------------------------------------------------------------------
Temple             .430   .195   .047   .012   .002   .000    11.5
Murray St.         .573   .181   .038   .006   .001   .000    11.4
Gonzaga            .545   .090   .043   .013   .004   .001    10.7
Creighton          .411   .106   .049   .014   .002   .000     9.8
San Diego St.      .453   .139   .029   .008   .001   .000     9.4
Iowa St.           .516   .081   .025   .011   .003   .001     9.3
Xavier             .417   .129   .044   .008   .001   .000     9.3
Belmont            .282   .147   .035   .011   .002   .000     8.4
Connecticut        .484   .070   .022   .009   .002   .001     8.3
West Virginia      .455   .069   .029   .006   .001   .000     7.9
Saint Mary's       .409   .079   .031   .008   .001   .000     7.8
Colorado St.       .427   .109   .019   .003   .001   .000     7.5
Brigham Young      .205   .125   .033   .009   .002   .000     6.9
Colorado           .299   .083   .023   .003   .001   .000     6.0
Long Beach St.     .274   .096   .015   .004   .001   .000     5.7
St. Bonaventure    .247   .080   .009   .002   .000   .000     4.6

Team               Rd32   Sw16    El8    F4    Title  Champ  TCPts
------------------------------------------------------------------
South Dakota St.   .205   .072   .019   .002   .001   .000     4.5
Ohio               .239   .070   .011   .002   .000   .000     4.4
Harvard            .284   .051   .010   .001   .000   .000     4.4
So. Mississippi    .254   .041   .006   .001   .000   .000     3.7
VCU                .206   .054   .006   .002   .000   .000     3.7
Davidson           .195   .049   .006   .001   .000   .000     3.3
South Florida      .134   .054   .013   .003   .000   .000     3.2
New Mexico St.     .187   .048   .004   .001   .000   .000     3.1
Lehigh             .121   .030   .006   .000   .000   .000     2.1
Iona               .079   .034   .006   .001   .000   .000     1.7
Montana            .084   .021   .003   .001   .000   .000     1.4
UNC-Asheville      .057   .010   .001   .000   .000   .000     0.8
Detroit            .051   .009   .001   .000   .000   .000     0.8
Lamar              .039   .006   .001   .000   .000   .000     0.5
Loyola-Maryland    .026   .004   .000   .000   .000   .000     0.4
Norfolk St.        .029   .002   .000   .000   .000   .000     0.3
LIU-Brooklyn       .024   .002   .000   .000   .000   .000     0.3
Vermont            .019   .003   .001   .000   .000   .000     0.3
Western KY         .010   .001   .000   .000   .000   .000     0.1
MS Valley St.      .002   .000   .000   .000   .000   .000     0.0

We also offer that old Sports-Reference standby, the Simple Rating System. SRS basically represents the team's average PPG margin, adjusted for strength of schedule. Here were the 2012 leaders:

Overall SRS
Rk School Conf W L SRS ▾ SOS
1 KentuckyR SEC 32 2 24.6 7.0
2 Ohio StateR Big Ten 27 7 24.5 8.8
3 Michigan StateRT Big Ten 27 7 22.4 10.3
4 KansasR Big 12 27 6 22.2 9.1
5 North CarolinaR ACC 29 5 22.2 7.1
6 SyracuseR Big East 31 2 21.4 7.2
7 MissouriT Big 12 30 4 20.9 6.3
8 Indiana* Big Ten 25 8 19.3 7.6
9 Wisconsin* Big Ten 24 9 19.2 8.2
10 Wichita StateR MVC 27 5 18.2 4.0
11 Duke* ACC 27 6 18.1 9.0
12 MemphisRT CUSA 26 8 17.5 5.3
13 Florida* SEC 23 10 17.4 7.2
14 Baylor* Big 12 27 7 17.0 8.0
15 Georgetown* Big East 23 8 16.9 7.5
16 Marquette* Big East 25 7 16.8 7.0
17 New MexicoRT MWC 27 6 16.2 3.3
18 VanderbiltT SEC 24 10 15.7 7.7
19 LouisvilleT Big East 26 9 15.6 7.9
20 Florida StateT ACC 24 9 15.4 7.9
21 Kansas State* Big 12 21 10 15.2 7.5
22 Saint Louis* A-10 25 7 14.9 3.2
23 Texas* Big 12 20 13 14.7 8.4
24 Nevada-Las Vegas* MWC 26 8 14.5 4.9
25 California* Pac-12 24 9 14.2 4.3
Provided by Sports-Reference.com/CBB: View Original Table
Generated 3/14/2012.

Plugging those numbers into a simulator 10,000 times, here's how SRS sees the tournament:

Team               Rd32   Sw16    El8    F4    Title  Champ  TCPts
------------------------------------------------------------------
Kentucky           .997   .872   .637   .507   .345   .207   214.8
Ohio St.           .991   .866   .729   .495   .322   .198   210.9
Kansas             .974   .796   .627   .395   .202   .109   149.5
North Carolina     .975   .777   .638   .375   .195   .107   146.2
Michigan St.       .992   .708   .545   .355   .193   .099   136.7
Missouri           .992   .678   .511   .277   .133   .061   106.9
Syracuse           .968   .751   .482   .233   .123   .060   101.6
Duke               .916   .706   .432   .147   .064   .023    69.9
Wisconsin          .919   .637   .304   .128   .059   .025    61.9
Indiana            .850   .512   .182   .112   .055   .022    50.8
Baylor             .831   .549   .296   .091   .037   .012    48.1
Marquette          .726   .585   .233   .093   .035   .010    44.5
Wichita St.        .845   .425   .134   .077   .035   .012    37.7
Georgetown         .670   .480   .173   .073   .021   .007    34.5
New Mexico         .734   .432   .144   .061   .019   .006    31.5
Louisville         .782   .423   .129   .049   .013   .004    28.7

Team               Rd32   Sw16    El8    F4    Title  Champ  TCPts
------------------------------------------------------------------
Florida            .652   .242   .153   .064   .023   .007    28.7
Michigan           .771   .448   .124   .036   .009   .002    26.7
UNLV               .754   .344   .152   .034   .011   .003    25.8
Florida St.        .763   .417   .101   .032   .010   .003    25.1
Memphis            .605   .193   .114   .054   .020   .007    24.1
Vanderbilt         .781   .312   .108   .032   .012   .003    23.9
Kansas St.         .759   .218   .094   .027   .009   .003    20.0
Texas              .567   .308   .068   .024   .006   .002    17.9
California         .427   .241   .068   .023   .006   .002    15.1
Purdue             .611   .138   .068   .022   .006   .001    14.7
Notre Dame         .579   .172   .063   .010   .003   .000    13.1
N.C. St.           .577   .215   .046   .011   .001   .000    13.0
Alabama            .512   .114   .059   .020   .004   .001    12.1
Creighton          .488   .106   .058   .018   .004   .000    11.6
Cincinnati         .433   .213   .037   .010   .003   .000    11.4
Temple             .454   .200   .040   .008   .002   .000    11.1

Team               Rd32   Sw16    El8    F4    Title  Champ  TCPts
------------------------------------------------------------------
Saint Louis        .395   .098   .051   .019   .005   .001    10.4
Murray St.         .546   .149   .019   .003   .000   .000     9.6
Belmont            .330   .177   .039   .010   .002   .001     9.6
Iowa St.           .527   .070   .023   .009   .002   .001     8.9
Gonzaga            .503   .066   .031   .009   .002   .001     8.7
Virginia           .348   .079   .040   .014   .004   .001     8.6
West Virginia      .497   .067   .030   .008   .002   .001     8.6
San Diego St.      .423   .128   .021   .004   .000   .000     7.9
Xavier             .421   .101   .029   .003   .001   .000     7.8
Connecticut        .474   .058   .018   .007   .002   .000     7.4
Colorado St.       .454   .103   .011   .001   .000   .000     7.2
Saint Mary's       .389   .062   .026   .006   .001   .000     6.7
Brigham Young      .192   .122   .026   .006   .001   .000     6.1
Long Beach St.     .266   .095   .013   .003   .001   .000     5.5
Colorado           .246   .056   .013   .001   .000   .000     4.2
Ohio               .229   .070   .007   .001   .000   .000     4.1

Team               Rd32   Sw16    El8    F4    Title  Champ  TCPts
------------------------------------------------------------------
St. Bonaventure    .237   .063   .005   .000   .000   .000     3.9
Davidson           .219   .051   .004   .001   .000   .000     3.4
South Dakota St.   .169   .051   .011   .001   .000   .000     3.2
So. Mississippi    .241   .027   .006   .001   .000   .000     3.2
Harvard            .220   .037   .005   .001   .000   .000     3.2
New Mexico St.     .150   .033   .004   .001   .000   .000     2.4
South Florida      .119   .042   .006   .001   .000   .000     2.3
VCU                .155   .030   .003   .001   .000   .000     2.3
Iona               .082   .041   .006   .001   .000   .000     2.0
Lehigh             .084   .022   .003   .000   .000   .000     1.4
Montana            .082   .014   .001   .000   .000   .000     1.1
UNC-Asheville      .032   .004   .000   .000   .000   .000     0.4
Detroit            .026   .004   .001   .000   .000   .000     0.4
Lamar              .019   .003   .000   .000   .000   .000     0.3
Loyola-Maryland    .009   .001   .000   .000   .000   .000     0.1
LIU-Brooklyn       .008   .000   .000   .000   .000   .000     0.1
Vermont            .007   .001   .000   .000   .000   .000     0.1
Norfolk St.        .008   .000   .000   .000   .000   .000     0.1
Western KY         .002   .000   .000   .000   .000   .000     0.0
MS Valley St.      .001   .000   .000   .000   .000   .000     0.0

With the help of metrics like these, you should have an edge in your NCAA Tournament pool!

This entry was posted on Wednesday, March 14th, 2012 at 9:49 am and is filed under Announcement, Basketball-Reference.com, CBB at Sports Reference, expire7d, Features. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.

3 Responses to “CBB: Use Our Adjusted Power Ratings to Fill Out Your Brackets”

  1. Fabulous stats, great summaries...In love with your site...I would pay for this !!

  2. What do the R, T, and * signify?

  3. * means an NCAA tournament team, R means they won the conference in the regular-season, T means they won the conference tournament.

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